ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[xtyphooncyclonex]

So assuming we've all looked at the link , here's the latest Satellite data of sea surface heights(updates every 15 days so new one soon).

http://i57.tinypic.com/awrm6w.jpg
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Here was 2009 at it's peak, modoki. Sea level never rose all that much in the east, mostly central pacific as was 2002 and 2004.

http://i62.tinypic.com/2vs5jbr.jpg

Strongest since 1997. At an early time of year, this is highly unusual.

[NDG]

All I know is that things are already starting to look like an El Niño pattern here in FL, April was warm and very wet and so far these first few days of May look to stay the same, very unusual wet pattern for this time of the year.

[Ntxw]

All I know is that things are already starting to look like an El Niño pattern here in FL, April was warm and very wet and so far these first few days of May look to stay the same, very unusual wet pattern for this time of the year.

The Pensacola flooding has been unreal, especially from a non tropical system. I know it's not wise to use individual events for a seasonal event that ENSO is but it's worth mentioning.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mob/?n=flashflood_04292014

" ...The widespread flooding produced sinkholes (some very large and deep), cut roads in half and necessitated human water rescues (one confirmed fatality). Parts of I-10 were closed. The Fish River at Silver Hill (Baldwin County Alabama) peaked at a record high level of 23.18 feet (previous historical record was 22.78 feet on 20 July 1997). Many folks throughout the area have compared this event to the extreme flooding impacts caused by Hurricane Danny (1997)

...Finally and although not shown, it is worth mentioning that leading into the event, rainfall totals for the past two weeks and 30 days prior to the occurrence of this event that rainfall totals were 200-600% of normal according to 30 year PRISM Data."

[HURRICANELONNY]

All I know is that things are already starting to look like an El Niño pattern here in FL, April was warm and very wet and so far these first few days of May look to stay the same, very unusual wet pattern for this time of the year.

Not down here in S. FL. It's been pretty dry lately. Might get some rain friday- sat but the grass is slowly getting brown.

[ninel conde]

JB continues to hold onto the modoki idea.

[cycloneye]

This is news that has to be highlighted at the title of thread. SOI has continued to go up in the past 4 weeks and now has reached and surpassed the +8 La Nina threshold. (+8.6) In fact it has accelerated it's rise in the past readings. I know our friend Ntxw has explained about this but is there something not clicking on the atmosphere in Darwin and Tahiti with El Nino looming?

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/soi.txt

[Alyono]

again, there was a disturbance near Darwin... SIO not that meaningful at the moment

[cycloneye]

SOI went down until March 20 when it reached it's lowest reading at -13.7 well below El Nino threshold of -8. Since then it began to rise to where is now so it has to be something more.

[Ntxw]

SOI went down until March 20 when it reached it's lowest reading at -13.7 well below El Nino threshold of -8. Since then it began to rise to where is now so it has to be something more.

The MJO, it spent a good amount of time in the Maritime continent early to mid April before reaching the Pacific. After it left tropical activity remained near Darwin but there has been lower pressures in Tahiti as well just not as low as counterpart. This is the reason for the drastic difference between SOI and ESPI as feedback in the Pacific already occurred with wet conditions. We are no longer seeing the daily SOI spikes. We only lose positives now.

[dexterlabio]

We had seen 30-day SOI hitting positive values during the onset of EN back in 2009.

[cycloneye]

SOI went down until March 20 when it reached it's lowest reading at -13.7 well below El Nino threshold of -8. Since then it began to rise to where is now so it has to be something more.

The MJO, it spent a good amount of time in the Maritime continent early to mid April before reaching the Pacific. After it left tropical activity remained near Darwin but there has been lower pressures in Tahiti as well just not as low as counterpart. This is the reason for the drastic difference between SOI and ESPI as feedback in the Pacific already occurred with wet conditions. We are no longer seeing the daily SOI spikes. We only lose positives now.

Makes sense the MJO factor. But I have to admit I never thought it would surpass the +8 line as I was in the thinking the rise would be of short duration.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

SOI may start to go down probably next week if the disturbance will move away.

[JDawg512]

All I know is that things are already starting to look like an El Niño pattern here in FL, April was warm and very wet and so far these first few days of May look to stay the same, very unusual wet pattern for this time of the year.

Not down here in S. FL. It's been pretty dry lately. Might get some rain friday- sat but the grass is slowly getting brown.

Still very dry here in Central Texas too. Im hoping that the end of next week will signal the pattern shift for us.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

It is super hot and dry here. For the entire week, we got no rain. Temperatures here are above 32C well at 36.3 in our capital, and 39C in the Northeast Valleys of Luzon.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

MASSIVE FLOODING in Pensacola, Florida and record rainfall there 3.5x the monthly average. Looks like El Niño's effects are starting. Record rains also over the northeast US.

Drought over Southeast Asia, particularly here in the Philippines. Currently scorching hot with temperatures in some parts exceeding 100ºF (37ºC) and unusually dry. PAGASA said that if storms come, they will bring insane rains and flooding.

Hoping that the effects of this year's El Niño will not be very bad, even if it has not been declared yet. Horrible now and this is not yet even the worst.

The Philippines lost PHP8 billion during the El Niño of 1997. It resulted more damage elsewhere, at $33 billion. Hope it wont be worse.

[stormkite]

In the TAO data, it is showing 2 different subsurface pools, one is the CP weakening pool and the very warm pool near Peru. The other data shows the subsurface pool has weakened. Which is real now?

Two cell walker circulation.

[cycloneye]

The latest update of the sub-surface thru April 28 shows the large warm pool maintaining intact.

[curtadams]

Here in California we're back to hot and dry conditions. For us this is pre-Nino weather not Nino weather. We're all hoping for Nino weather to end the drought. Of course ending a drought with El Nino is pretty much like ending one with a tropical storm and creates significant problems of its own.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

The latest update of the sub-surface thru April 28 shows the large warm pool maintaining intact.

In fact, it even got stronger again! Part of it shrunk and part of it grew. Thanks for the graphic though.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Now, the warm waters in the subsurface have warmed, but expected to surface and weaken as per the CFSv2. It will grow warm and those waters will get larger by October then eventually becoming a super El Niño around that period. Some 3ºC's may reach near the surface by December 2014 and January 2015.