ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[euro6208]

Strongest pool since 1997 and storm2k wasn't around at that time. Interesting to see what activity we will get on this website.

More or Less...

[euro6208]

That shrinking of the pool is fluctuating, but expected to continue as per the CFSv2. It will grow back and intensify by October then eventually becoming a super El Niño around that period. Some 3ºC's may reach near the surface by December 2014 and January 2015.

Oh i'm having flashbacks of dec 1997 when paka hit and dec 2002 when pongsona hit and came so close to 155 knot monster nida in dec 2009.



Our season will likely extend to next year

[xtyphooncyclonex]

That shrinking of the pool is fluctuating, but expected to continue as per the CFSv2. It will grow back and intensify by October then eventually becoming a super El Niño around that period. Some 3ºC's may reach near the surface by December 2014 and January 2015.

Oh i'm having flashbacks of dec 1997 when paka hit and dec 2002 when pongsona hit and came so close to 155 knot monster nida in dec 2009.

Our season will likely extend to next year

Just be prepared. This year could be really bad for you, just pray that not. 1997 and 2002 were really bad years for you. But did 1982, 2006 and 2009 (other than Nida) also have storms that hit you or nearly affected your place? Just curious as those years were also El Niño.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Pro mets and Alyono, I have a question. Is this disturbance near Darwin, Australia expected to become a full-fledged cyclone and move away? It could increase the SOI if it does but if it moves away, opposite happens.

[wxman57]

Pro mets and Alyono, I have a question. Is this disturbance near Darwin, Australia expected to become a full-fledged cyclone and move away? It could increase the SOI if it does but if it moves away, opposite happens.

Development chances don't look good. Wind shear is fairly high in its path and convection is extremely disorganized (or non-existent). Euro has it moving inland into western Australia in 60-72 hrs as a 1008mb low.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Pro mets and Alyono, I have a question. Is this disturbance near Darwin, Australia expected to become a full-fledged cyclone and move away? It could increase the SOI if it does but if it moves away, opposite happens.

Development chances don't look good. Wind shear is fairly high in its path and convection is extremely disorganized (or non-existent). Euro has it moving inland into western Australia in 60-72 hrs as a 1008mb low.

So the SOI will begin to go down by next week? That means conditions would be as a typical El Niño. I am not surprised if the SOI will really go rapidly down.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

All Niño regions but 1+2 are warming. Niño 1+2 is cooling. Nothing to raise an eyebrow yet?

[euro6208]

That shrinking of the pool is fluctuating, but expected to continue as per the CFSv2. It will grow back and intensify by October then eventually becoming a super El Niño around that period. Some 3ºC's may reach near the surface by December 2014 and January 2015.

Oh i'm having flashbacks of dec 1997 when paka hit and dec 2002 when pongsona hit and came so close to 155 knot monster nida in dec 2009.

Our season will likely extend to next year

Just be prepared. This year could be really bad for you, just pray that not. 1997 and 2002 were really bad years for you. But did 1982, 2006 and 2009 (other than Nida) also have storms that hit you or nearly affected your place? Just curious as those years were also El Niño.

1982 and 2002 combined for 10 close landfalls no direct landfalls while 2009 saw 8 close landfalls including another Category 5 besides Nida!

2002 saw another direct landfall in typhoon chataan in july.

[euro6208]

If this year's el nino is as strong as 1997, we could potentially see this...Notice all the category 5's around guam.

10 Category 5 including 3 peaking at 160 knots but only 8 came close including 155 knot keith between guam and rota.

Many long tracked storms and eastward development near the dateline southeast of guam and the rampage of storms hitting asia.

That year ended with:

31 Tropical Storms
24 Typhoons
13 Major Typhoons
-10 Category 5

ACE: 594.11

2014?

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

My children are heading to Japan on May 6th to May 27. Please what are the odds of a cyclone or typhoon occurring there during that time period?

[cycloneye]

Strong MJO signal.

@MJVentrice
Quite the MJO event going on... strong in upper-level circulation. VPM GFS forecast to hit 2-3sigma over Indian Ocean

[Spin]

My children are heading to Japan on May 6th to May 27. Please what are the odds of a cyclone or typhoon occurring there during that time period?

I’d rate the odds of a tropical cyclone very low as the sea surface temperatures near Japan are still quite cold.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

My children are heading to Japan on May 6th to May 27. Please what are the odds of a cyclone or typhoon occurring there during that time period?

I’d rate the odds of a tropical cyclone very low as the sea surface temperatures near Japan are still quite cold.

Thank you ever so much for the reply Spin! I don't think my drylander prairie children are prepared for that (or earthquakes or tsunamis ). So now I'll just pray they don't run into the other two!

[cycloneye]

Is only one day but the SOI turned down (+7.9) after rising to above La Nina threshold of +8. Let's wait for the next few days of data to see how it goes.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/soi.txt

[Ntxw]

Is only one day but the SOI turned down (+7.9) after rising to above La Nina threshold of +8. Let's wait for the next few days of data to see how it goes.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/soi.txt

It will go down pretty quickly. We can only subtract positives and some big positive values in the moving day average. There are no negatives to lose within the next 7 days.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Ntxw, is this something to raise an eyebrow? Niño 1+2 is gradually cooling according to Levi Cowan's site.

[Kingarabian]

Don't want to point fingers, but I think we should take all daily data as entertainment purposes.

The weekly averages, bigger picture is what counts.

[Ntxw]

Don't want to point fingers, but I think we should take all daily data as entertainment purposes.

The weekly averages, bigger picture is what counts.

Yeah, we must remember ENSO is a seasonal phenomenon measured weeks and months. When something happens in the daily's for long periods of time is when you pick it up as a trend. 1+2 will still see a drastic change come Monday's update, probably by a couple of points from last week. TAO buoys eyeballing should be above 0.5C the first of what will likely be many.

While SOI is calming down from highs ESPI continues to ramp up to +1.40 for the last 30 days

[xtyphooncyclonex]

CFSv2 forecast of the subsurface.

[Ntxw]

I can't post the TAO maps from my phone, if someone could. The thermocline is pretty much El Nino, new kelvin wave pushing more warm water into the CPAC regions, the east speaks for itself as cycloneye says. Lots of updates on Monday, IRI should continue to raise odds and first Nino readings at 3.4