2014 EPAC Season

[Yellow Evan]

Now I think this season will have at least 5 major hurricanes due to favourable conditions. Does anyone think it will be more active or the same as 1997?

Not official.

I think it could. But, the fact there were 5 or 6 MH's don't make much of a difference on how memorable a season is IMO.

[cycloneye]

From the TWD:

LOOKING AHEAD...GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT SHOWING
THE GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW PRES SYSTEM NEAR 07N110W
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
$$
CHRISTENSEN

[hurricanes1234]

Oh my gosh! In that discussion, are they referring to possibly Monday or Tuesday coming? If something does form before May 10, would it be one of the earliest ever forming here?

Not official.

[Kingarabian]

The Canadian may, just may have gotten some credibility for this upcoming hurricane season.

[Yellow Evan]

Oh my gosh! In that discussion, are they referring to possibly Monday or Tuesday coming? If something does form before May 10, would it be one of the earliest ever forming here?

Not official.

In answer to your 1st question, I'm thinking more like late next week. In answer to your 2nd, depends how you define the EPAC. Counting east of 140W, it has till May 12 to become a TC to become the 5th earliest EPAc season on record.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I wonder how strong Amanda will be. I'm just too excited.

[Yellow Evan]

The Canadian may, just may have gotten some credibility for this upcoming hurricane season.

True, it detected this WAY out there. But it hasn't formed yet.

I still I am not 100% sure this will form. Ill wait for the NHC to issue a special TWO.

[Yellow Evan]

I wonder how strong Amanda will be. I'm just too excited.

I can see it been anything from not devloping to a major. This is still 5-8 out.



Has it forming just outside the 5 day time frame.



Peak as a good sized hurricane. On May 10. That's like way ahead of schedule. Also an indication that the El Nino conditions has somewhat been in place for months as it normally takes a month or two for the EPAC to get going, hence why El Nino years tend to be late activity starters.



Falls part over cold SST's in the GOc. One problem for Amanda could be cold SST upwelling; it's going move very slowly if the GFs is correct, possibly because summer steering currents aren't there yet

GFS no longer show Storm #2. I still think that could form though if the MJO stays long enough.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

The disturbance that should spawn the first cyclone of the season is already noticeable on satellite near 103W 11N. As this disturbance drifts slowly westward, it should have no issues developing in a low wind shear environment. Dry air will not be an issue as a very strong pulse of the MJO (stronger than any ones last year) is on its way across the Pacific.

I'd expect a circle and invest designation Monday or so.

[supercane4867]

RGB image of the disturbance taken by AVHRR on 5/2/2014

[Kingarabian]

RGB image of the disturbance taken by AVHRR on 5/2/2014

Based on just that appearance, an Invest could popup tomorrow or at least a special TWO.

[hurricanes1234]

Wow! Just look at that! It looks almost like Alvin last year.

[Yellow Evan]

Aren't the NHC staff still away on vacation and not there yet full time until May 15? I recall that being an issue for STWO later.

With that said, I'd be issuing a special TWO if I was the NHC.

[cycloneye]

The 16:05 UTC TWD.

A SURFACE LOW OF 1009 MB IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH
AND CENTERED NEAR 07.5N111W. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LOOKING AHEAD TO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...LATEST GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT THIS AREA OF
ENHANCED VORTICITY WILL INTERACT WITH VORTICITY INDUCED BY THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE EVENT. THE MERGING OF THESE TWO AREAS
OF VORTICITY WILL HELP FOR A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.

[cycloneye]

Good link to see what are the different model probabilities to have a TC.



http://moe.met.fsu.edu/modelgen/gfs120epac.php

[Yellow Evan]

If even this does not form, this getting intriguing.



Shows it forming in 3 days form now. Has it forming closer to the coast.



Near-Landfalling hurricane sometime thursday



Has it meandering offshore as it weakens ala Bud 12.



Here comes Boris. Looks believable.



Borderline hurricane



Peak as a Cat 1/2 before weakening just like Amanda.

[Hurricane_Luis]

Good link to see what are the different model probabilities to have a TC.

http://oi57.tinypic.com/30htpja.jpg

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/modelgen/gfs120epac.php

Oooo. Its up to 50% now.

[cycloneye]

[hurricanes1234]

This is interesting. I never thought we would have all of this model anticipation for development so early.

[hurricanes1234]

When does a forecast for EPAC season usually come out?