2014 EPAC Season

[Yellow Evan]

When does a forecast for EPAC season usually come out?

Late May from CPC. As for SNM, idk.

[Yellow Evan]

Formation a little later here than in past runs.



Shows more of a Daillia 13/01-type tropical storm. Has lasting much longer as well.

It dropped system #2 again. Sometimes GFs briefly does that in the long range.

[cycloneye]

The latest EPAC TWD:

A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 08N111W
LIES WITHIN THE CONVERGENCE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON
TROUGH. CONVECTION NEAR THE SYSTEM HAS INCREASED MARKEDLY SINCE
21Z...WITH NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN
120 NM NE QUADRANT AND 150 NM SE QUADRANT AND SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FOUND ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM N AND W QUADRANTS OF
THE LOW PRES CENTER. THE LOW WILL REMAIN A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
AS THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE POOLED NEAR IT WILL BE LIFTED BY THE
VERTICAL MOTION INDUCED BY THE DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH A RIDGE AXIS OVER THE SYSTEM. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. LOOKING AHEAD...THE GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW THIS SYSTEM INTERACTING WITH VORTICITY INDUCED BY
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE EVENT AROUND MID WEEK...CAUSING THE
SYSTEM TO DEEPEN.

[hurricanes1234]

It does look better now. To me, it resembles an invest.

Not official.

[hurricanes1234]

An image of the EPAC with the area visible to the right.

[stormkite]

My favorite modeL likes this for a TS or CAT1


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[cycloneye]

GFS up to 61%.

[Yellow Evan]

Formation



Peak



Landfall

System #2 not on GFS run anymore. CMC shows it though.

[hurricanes1234]

This run looks like it is predicting a moderate tropical storm. Even if it is weak, it is still rare for things to form this early (assuming it does, of course).

[cycloneye]

A long discussion of the situation in the 16:05 UTC TWD.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS VERY ACTIVE AS MENTIONED IN THE
ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION ABOVE. VORTICITY IS INCREASING ALONG
THE TROUGH...AND IS ESPECIALLY POOLING IN TWO ISOLATED AREAS
WITHIN THE TROUGH. THE FIRST AREA IS OF ENHANCED VORTICITY IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 09N111W WHICH HAS
BEEN EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH THE PAST DAY OR SO. THE
OTHER AREA OF ENHANCED VORTICITY WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH IS
NEAR 08N101W. THIS AREA IS ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASED SHEAR
VORTICITY BETWEEN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT AND SW
MONSOON FLOW. THESE AREAS OF ENHANCED VORTICITY WILL BE WATCHED
WITH CLOSE INTEREST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE SCENARIO
DEPICTED BY GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS SUGGEST THAT THESE
VORTICITY CENTERS WILL MERGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS
MERGER WILL HELP FOR A DEEPENED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...WHICH MAY
LEAD TO A BREAKDOWN OF THE MONSOON TROUGH...AND FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW.

[Yellow Evan]

This run looks like it is predicting a moderate tropical storm. Even if it is weak, it is still rare for things to form this early (assuming it does, of course).

New run is fairly similar.



Formation



Peak



Has it meandering offshore. Can't tell if it is still a TC there or not.



NOGAPS is the lone model that makes it a hurricane.

[hurricanes1234]

Can this become a poll? The question is 'When do you think the first major hurricane will form in EPAC?' Thanks.

[Yellow Evan]

Can this become a poll? The question is 'When do you think the first major hurricane will form in EPAC?' Thanks.

This won't become a major IMO. But I'd make a new thread personally.

I'd say sometime in August, but could be as early as late June.

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

22:05 UTC TWD:

SPORADIC CONVECTION CONTINUES AS WELL IN THE VICINITY OF THE
1012 MB LOW PRES NEAR 09N111W. THIS IS IN PART ENHANCED BY A
NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOW. WHILE THIS IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT TO THE NE OF THE AREA TONIGHT...GLOBAL MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST. PROVIDED THIS WILL NOT
IMPOSE SIGNIFICANT WESTERLY SHEAR ON THE CONVECTION AROUND THE
LOW PRES...THE RELATED UPPER DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL
ALLOW FURTHER CONVECTIVE GROWTH AND BETTER ORGANIZATION WITH
REGARD TO THE LOW PRES. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO DEMONSTRATE
DECENT AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY SHOWING THE LOW PRES DEVELOPING
SLOWLY MOVING TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST.

[Yellow Evan]

Formation (as of 18z run)



Peak as a strong TS/weak hurricane. So more aggressive than in past runs.



Near landfall. Within a favorable conditions near a subtropical jet, which could enhance deepening. I would not count on anything stronger than a weak to moderate TS though.

System #2 has been dropped.

[supercane4867]

When will the NHC decide to start issue special TWO? Formation appears likely within only 48 hours

[Yellow Evan]

When will the NHC decide to start issue special TWO? Formation appears likely within only 48 hours

I believe they are still on vacation. I would have been issuing TWO's for about 24-36 hours, since they are 5 days now.

Still, I'd expect a special TWO within 24 hours.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[hurricanes1234]

Wow! Just look at the area how large it is and how much better it has gotten since the last picture I posted this morning.



Off Topic: Can I still post images using ImageShack? I remember seeing something about changes they made, and to use TinyPic instead, but I am not sure.

[Yellow Evan]

Wow! Just look at the area how large it is and how much better it has gotten since the last picture I posted this morning.



Off Topic: Can I still post images using ImageShack? I remember seeing something about changes they made, and to use TinyPic instead, but I am not sure.

I use Tinypic, but I'd post that question in the question forum: viewforum.php?f=42

It's large, so it will take a while to come through. Typical of May And June, where ITCZ breakdowns like what we're seeing now are common compared to the more compact systems we see in July and sometimes in August. It's getting there though. It'll really get going IMO when it starts to consolidate some more.