Texas Spring-2014

weatherdude1108 · #681 Postby **weatherdude1108** » Mon May 05, 2014 9:29 am

That's our life story. :roll:

#682 Postby **gboudx** » Mon May 05, 2014 9:42 am

1-1.5" of rain would be awesome. DFW NWS still keeps higher amounts on the table:

RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN 1/2 INCH-2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS IN
EXCESS OF 3 INCHES A POSSIBILITY FROM I-35 AND POINTS EAST LATE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO POSSIBLE TRAINING WITH
ORTHOGONAL SSW-NNE FLOW ALOFT.

#683 Postby **dhweather** » Mon May 05, 2014 2:13 pm

gboudx wrote:1-1.5" of rain would be awesome. DFW NWS still keeps higher amounts on the table:

RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN 1/2 INCH-2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS IN
EXCESS OF 3 INCHES A POSSIBILITY FROM I-35 AND POINTS EAST LATE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO POSSIBLE TRAINING WITH
ORTHOGONAL SSW-NNE FLOW ALOFT.

Not complaining about 1-1.5" - but it had been advertising 3-5" , which would at least put a dent in the drought.

#684 Postby **dhweather** » Mon May 05, 2014 2:51 pm

For ILLUSTRATION purposes only. 12Z Euro Run Total Precip (RTP) for the last five days.

#685 Postby **dhweather** » Mon May 05, 2014 2:52 pm

So we went from looking really promising and putting a dent in the drought to enough to keep things alive a little longer.

#686 Postby **South Texas Storms** » Mon May 05, 2014 2:57 pm

Yeah no doubt the models have trended down in rainfall totals across Texas throughout the past several runs. As of right now, I would be happy if I got over an inch. I hope a large part of the state can get over an inch of rain in the next 7 days!

#687 Postby **gboudx** » Mon May 05, 2014 3:08 pm

I think I'll start to take the same approach towards forecasted rain as a I do towards forecasted wintry precip; I'll believe it when I see it falling.

#688 Postby **Ntxw** » Mon May 05, 2014 3:20 pm

The models park another southwest trough following this week's

aggiecutter · #689 Postby **aggiecutter** » Mon May 05, 2014 3:45 pm

This looks encouraging from the WPC:

#690 Postby **wxman57** » Mon May 05, 2014 3:52 pm

Sure was a nice biking weekend. Highs of 88 both days - about perfect. Not too cool, not too warm. The only negative was the wind.

12Z GFS indicates about 1/4" of rain in SE TX Thursday night/Friday. As has been stated, 12Z Euro is much wetter (1-3" of rain).

It's always a great time of year when the highs top 80F throughout the forecast period:

#691 Postby **gboudx** » Mon May 05, 2014 7:01 pm

From Steve McCauley:

We are still good to go for a widespread rain (at least an 80% coverage) for Thursday, preceded by strong to severe storms in western sections of north Texas late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. The cap will go away completely by Thursday morning allowing storms to roll into the Metroplex early in the day, and then intensify east of the I35 Corridor by Thursday afternoon.

Still too early to call for amounts, but this does appear to be significant (greater than 0.25" in ALL portions of the Metroplex), and there is at least a slight chance for a few hailers as the storms come in Thursday morning along with moderate to heavy rain!

#692 Postby **Ntxw** » Mon May 05, 2014 7:45 pm

Ntxw wrote:The models park another southwest trough following this week's

We have to watch this. The rain event this week isn't going to rid of the rich moisture, there's no front or dry air to clean it out by this weekend. Entrance of big jet and trough usually spells trouble with rich moisture in place. Trough movement from our west has proven to produce some notable tornado's and severe weather in the I-35 corridor in Texas.

#693 Postby **Texas Snowman** » Tue May 06, 2014 7:50 am

@LarryCosgrove: Link with equatorial moisture increases threat of heavy rain Texas into Midwest and East Coast during next 8 days. http://t.co/fQiE9TDBA0

#694 Postby **Texas Snowman** » Tue May 06, 2014 7:52 am

And this....

"@LarryCosgrove: Developing El Nino bears some resemblance to that of 1957; not really a hot summer in USA but thunder risk Midwest http://t.co/PUFaTYeTsU"

#695 Postby **Ntxw** » Tue May 06, 2014 8:03 am

SOI is doing a major crash after rising in April. The El Nino ocean-atmosphere is about to hook up. The coming troughs/rains are coming from SW flow, Pacific not Atlantic SE flow or NW flow.

#696 Postby **Portastorm** » Tue May 06, 2014 9:46 am

Ntxw wrote:SOI is doing a major crash after rising in April. The El Nino ocean-atmosphere is about to hook up. The coming troughs/rains are coming from SW flow, Pacific not Atlantic SE flow or NW flow.

Let's hope so ... our neighbors (Oklahoma) up north are burning up and parts of Texas are just one unfortunate spark away from the same. Sure would be nice to see several systems dropping healthy rainfall throughout much of the Southern Plains. What we could use is upper flow from the Pacific and low level inflow from the southeast to moisten all layers of the atmosphere. Give us some upper level energy and ... wallah! ... rain.

#697 Postby **Ntxw** » Tue May 06, 2014 12:37 pm

We have invest 90E in the Epac. Moisture envelope is quite large. Whether it gets named or not lets hope the trough draws up copious amounts of water! Fingers crossed.

aggiecutter · #698 Postby **aggiecutter** » Tue May 06, 2014 1:26 pm

Severe weather outlook from the SPC:

#699 Postby **Tireman4** » Tue May 06, 2014 1:35 pm

Texas just might get some rain this weekend....

#700 Postby **dhweather** » Tue May 06, 2014 1:55 pm

12Z Euro looks a little more promising, 2-3" over the next 10 days. I added the image in the post at the top of this page. It would be awesome if that yellow streak from Houston to Nashville slid west 2-300 miles.

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