Expert forecasts for 2014 N Atl Hurricane season

[Ntxw]

Both 1913 and 1914 were probably El Nino's with the second being the bigger one may have contributed to the quieter seasons, though I'm not certain of this as is most cases pre 1950.

[Ptarmigan]

:uarrow: Both 1913 and 1914 were probably El Nino's with the second being the bigger one may have contributed to the quieter seasons, though I'm not certain of this as is most cases pre 1950.

http://i62.tinypic.com/9rq0p4.png

http://i57.tinypic.com/dcudk9.png

1912-1913 was La Nina, while 1913-1914 was El Nino. The data of course is questionable as they were not measured directly.

http://ferret.pmel.noaa.gov/geoideLAS/
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei.e ... e.ext.html

[cycloneye]

Oh boy North Atlantic! Here is the April update for August,September and October by ECMWF of the sea level pressures and the graphic itself describes it.

[ninel conde]

might be time for 0/0/0, lol

[OuterBanker]

Oh boy North Atlantic! Here is the April update for August,September and October by ECMWF of the sea level pressures and the graphic itself describes it.

http://oi61.tinypic.com/2rnvtb6.jpg

If that come true than sure enough there will be no Cape Verde season. Most experts were already saying that. But it doesn't extend north of 20 which means the western Atlantic will still be open for development. Waters are still warm and predicted to be so during the season in the western Atlantic. Looks like if anything does develop it be will west of 60 and north of 20.

[hurricanetrack]

NC State throws their prediction in to the ring:

http://news.ncsu.edu/releases/hurricane2014/

Kind of an average year according to their outlook.

[OuterBanker]

My mistake, that's 30 north it extends to. WOW, that does put the kabash on the season.

[hurricaneCW]

Watch out Pacific though, eastern and central Pacific could see some whoppers if that forecast is correct.

[ninel conde]

i dont know if LC wants his newsletter posted but he went 8/3/1 for his hurricane forecast.

[cycloneye]

i dont know if LC wants his newsletter posted but he went 8/3/1 for his hurricane forecast.

I have to get a link so it's included on the list.

[cycloneye]

ImpactWeather private firm did a webinar conference this morning where they reiterated the forecast call for a slow North Atlantic with 9/4/1.The main culprits are known and are the El Nino and the colder sst's on most of the basin.

[cycloneye]

El Nino and the lack of Vertical Instability will be the main factors to a 2014 lack of much tropical activity in North Atlantic basin. The VI continues well below normal.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Well I've been sitting back and watching and waiting for May to come around and see what things are looking like. And I must say IMO if you're looking for action this is not the season. As cycloneye just showed the VI is way down and with el nino on the way, and of course all the negative factors carrying over from last year things look bleak. Will go with 6/2/0 plus or minus a ts or sts.

[ninel conde]

Well I've been sitting back and watching and waiting for May to come around and see what things are looking like. And I must say IMO if you're looking for action this is not the season. As cycloneye just showed the VI is way down and with el nino on the way, and of course all the negative factors carrying over from last year things look bleak. Will go with 6/2/0 plus or minus a ts or sts.

sounds about right. we may forget what a well developed hurricane looks like in the atlantic tropics.

[tolakram]

Don't forget to enter your numbers in the poll.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=116252

[HURRICANELONNY]

Accuweather also agrees on a slow season to:

http://www.usatoday.com/story/weather/2 ... t/9073359/

[cycloneye]

NOAA's turn to release their May forecast will be on Thursday the 22nd. I imagine they will continue with the expanded ranges of numbers.

[wxman57]

NOAA's turn to release their May forecast will be on Thursday the 22nd. I imagine they will continue with the expanded ranges of numbers.

They arrive at the numbers and go one standard deviation above and below each value. I suspect they'll be something like 7-11 named storms 3-5 hurricanes and 1-3 majors.

[cycloneye]

Here is the announcement about the 11 AM EDT release.

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/advisories ... son_2.html

[WeatherGuesser]

The last few years have been predicted to be busy and turned out slower, so with this season predicted to be slow, it should be busy, right?