ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Some +1ºC anomalies are appearing and are spreading over the equatorial central and eastern Pacific.

[Ntxw]

Cool maps of the day!

Ocean currents. It appears the equatorial Pacific has completely changed it's flow from typical. West to east is the new norm, new kelvin wave is pushing it's way from the west while the east continues to see rise in temperature anomalies as well as sea surface heights.



Latest animation of sst anom's the past week or so

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/sst.anom.anim.week.html

[cycloneye]

Climate Prediction Center Monthly 5/8/14 update

CPC has a 65% of having El Nino by the summer.The big question continues to be how strong El Nino will be when it peaks.

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
8 May 2014


ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Watch



Synopsis: Chance of El Niño increases during the remainder of the year, exceeding 65% during summer.

ENSO-neutral continued during April 2014, but with above-average sea surface temperatures (SST) developing over much of the eastern tropical Pacific as well as persisting near the International Date Line (Fig. 1). The weekly SST indices were near to slightly above average and increasing in the Niño1+2, Niño3 and Niño3.4 regions, and above average in the Niño4 region (Fig. 2). The downwelling phase of a strong oceanic Kelvin wave that began in January greatly increased the oceanic heat content during March and April (Fig. 3), and produced large positive subsurface temperature anomalies across the central and eastern Pacific (Fig. 4). The upper portion of these subsurface anomalies reached the sea surface, warming the waters east of 125oW longitude. Also during April, weak low-level westerly wind anomalies were observed over the far western Pacific, while upper-level easterly anomalies occurred over much of the Pacific. Convection was enhanced over the west-central equatorial Pacific (Fig. 5). These atmospheric and oceanic conditions collectively indicate a continued evolution toward El Niño.

The model predictions of ENSO for this summer and beyond are indicating an increased likelihood of El Niño compared with those from last month. Most of the models indicate that ENSO-neutral (Niño-3.4 index between -0.5oC and 0.5oC) will persist through part of the remainder of the Northern Hemisphere spring 2014 (Fig. 6), most likely transitioning to El Niño during the summer. There remains uncertainty as to exactly when El Niño will develop and an even greater uncertainty as to how strong it may become. This uncertainty is related to the inherently lower forecast skill of the models for forecasts made in the spring. While ENSO-neutral is favored for Northern Hemisphere spring, the chance of El Niño increases during the remainder of the year, exceeding 65% during the summer (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome).

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... odisc.html

[Ntxw]

First +1C anomaly area is appearing on the buoys, in regions 4 and western 3.4. Harbinger of things to come?

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Is there a chance that the El Niño will be declared by late May? My guess is also that we get our first 0.5C anomaly by the next update.


Current average SST anomaly temp estimate is at 0.75ºC

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Over 50% chance of El Niño by MJJ. It is very likely that this year will not be a bust like 2012.

[Ntxw]

Over 50% chance of El Niño by MJJ. It is very likely that this year will not be a bust like 2012.

April had an average above 0C likely somewhere between 0.2C or 0.3C. By the end of May if we see +1C and steadily rise in June, the average for the 3 months (AMJ) could still turn out as the first. If we wait until mid June or so to reach +1C the three month average would likely wait until MJJ. We won't know this until those months are all accounted for and gone by.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Over 50% chance of El Niño by MJJ. It is very likely that this year will not be a bust like 2012.

April had an average above 0C likely somewhere between 0.2C or 0.3C. By the end of May if we see +1C and steadily rise in June, the average for the 3 months (AMJ) could still turn out as the first. If we wait until mid June or so to reach +1C the three month average would likely wait until MJJ. We won't know this until those months are all accounted for and gone by.

Well right now, the SST anomalies are rapidly increasing thanks to the surfacing of the warm pool. 2009 had the first 0.5 ONI by MJJ. Probably our first could be as what you said, AMJ. Could this be even stronger than 2009?

[Ntxw]

Well right now, the SST anomalies are rapidly increasing thanks to the surfacing of the warm pool. 2009 had the first 0.5 ONI by MJJ. Probably our first could be as what you said, AMJ. Could this be even stronger than 2009?

It most likely will match 09 and possibly stronger. However that Nino behaved differently and arguably is a different kind of Nino. It began MJJ but 0.5C weekly didn't come until Mid June and July is what brought the three months over 0.5C average. As mentioned before sea level rises, PDO, currents, westerlies, and most of the other Nino indexes we use were considerably lower in 09 and was not really prevalent as it is now until the fall for that year.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Well right now, the SST anomalies are rapidly increasing thanks to the surfacing of the warm pool. 2009 had the first 0.5 ONI by MJJ. Probably our first could be as what you said, AMJ. Could this be even stronger than 2009?

It most likely will match 09 and possibly stronger. However that Nino behaved differently and arguably is a different kind of Nino. It began MJJ but 0.5C weekly didn't come until Mid June and July is what brought the three months over 0.5C average. As mentioned before sea level rises, PDO, currents, westerlies, and most of the other Nino indexes we use were considerably lower in 09 and was not really prevalent as it is now until the fall for that year.

Our first 0.5 is very likely on the second Monday of May! Niño 3.4 has been steady at borderline 0.5 and could be higher as CPC usually gives a higher rating. We could see also our first 1.0 in Niño 1+2!

[Siker]

Not sure if it's been posted yet but the April PDO value was released at +1.13, up from +.97 in March.

[Ntxw]

Not sure if it's been posted yet but the April PDO value was released at +1.13, up from +.97 in March.

4th consecutive month and May has not deviated, it's not a fluke. Here's an interesting factoid; since 1950 we haven't seen a PDO value of greater than 1 in a cold PDO era. Whenever it did happen it was only towards the transition from cold to warm periods (1957, 1976, 2002) the PDO then remained positive for several years.

[Yellow Evan]

Not sure if it's been posted yet but the April PDO value was released at +1.13, up from +.97 in March.

4th consecutive month and May has not deviated, it's not a fluke. Here's an interesting factoid; since 1950 we haven't seen a PDO value of greater than 1 in a cold PDO era. Whenever it did happen it was only towards the transition from cold to warm periods (1957, 1976, 2002) the PDO then remained positive for several years.

Wait, PDO was positive prior to 1957? 2002-2006 was kinda an upward spike within a cold PDO era, so I guess that was a transition from cold to warm.

[Ntxw]

Not sure if it's been posted yet but the April PDO value was released at +1.13, up from +.97 in March.

4th consecutive month and May has not deviated, it's not a fluke. Here's an interesting factoid; since 1950 we haven't seen a PDO value of greater than 1 in a cold PDO era. Whenever it did happen it was only towards the transition from cold to warm periods (1957, 1976, 2002) the PDO then remained positive for several years.

Wait, PDO was positive prior to 1957? 2002-2006 was kinda an upward spike within a cold PDO era, so I guess that was a transition from cold to warm.

1957's El Nino ended the long streak of negative PDO of the 40s/50s. It was not too different from 2002 in that it was a respite between negative PDO and extended a few years. They weren't long lasting like 1980s/1990s +PDO but I guess it comes down to your definition of a -PDO/+PDO whether it is a prolonged break or a shorter positive era. Negative PDO era El Nino's don't produce the big +PDO readings. As powerful as 1972 and 2009 was they only brought the index up to weak levels for only a few months.

So now begs the question, is this another break? A new era? Or just an unusual blip for the Nino and dies, if it continues. A few readings doesn't mean much in the big scheme over years but if it continues it's a good question to ask with some eyebrow raising values.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Current Daily Niño values: (all rounded)
1+2: +1.0ºC
3: +0.7ºC
3.4: +0.5ºC
4: +1.0ºC

These are also my predictions for the CPC weekly update, this could also even be higher.

[Yellow Evan]

4th consecutive month and May has not deviated, it's not a fluke. Here's an interesting factoid; since 1950 we haven't seen a PDO value of greater than 1 in a cold PDO era. Whenever it did happen it was only towards the transition from cold to warm periods (1957, 1976, 2002) the PDO then remained positive for several years.

Wait, PDO was positive prior to 1957? 2002-2006 was kinda an upward spike within a cold PDO era, so I guess that was a transition from cold to warm.

1957's El Nino ended the long streak of negative PDO of the 40s/50s. It was not too different from 2002 in that it was a respite between negative PDO and extended a few years. They weren't long lasting like 1980s/1990s +PDO but I guess it comes down to your definition of a -PDO/+PDO whether it is a prolonged break or a shorter positive era. Negative PDO era El Nino's don't produce the big +PDO readings. As powerful as 1972 and 2009 was they only brought the index up to weak levels for only a few months.

So now begs the question, is this another break? A new era? Or just an unusual blip for the Nino and dies, if it continues. A few readings doesn't mean much in the big scheme over years but if it continues it's a good question to ask with some eyebrow raising values.

I doubt it's a new era. I think it's just a blip like 1972 and 1965 were.

It's also worth noting that 3 El Ninos occurred form 1962-66, and fourth in 1968-69. 1957-58 and 1969-70 had briefly El Nino comebacks in 1959 and 1970 as well. Something just does not seem right with that, given that in the present -PDO era, we haven't had El Nino-neutral-El Nino kind of event.

[Ntxw]

It is strange. It comes down to what you believe the definition of the PDO is. Decades trends or just a few years. Sample size is rather small for a decadal oscillation. But it won't matter at this time, North pacific has no resemblance of a -PDO sst anoms or atmospheric background trends for this year thus far and will likely continue if you believe the guidance.

[Hammy]

interesting comparison, little over two months here and a 5C increase in some areas

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2014/anomp.2.27.2014.gif
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2014/anomp.5.5.2014.gif

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Niño 1+2 exceeds moderate El Niño threshold! Meanwhile Niño 3 and 3.4 are rapidly warming but still at weak threshold. Niño 4 just weakened from moderate. These are just daily unofficial anomalies posted in Tropical Tidbits.

Anyway, in this update all Niño regions should be at El Niño threshold.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

30 day SOI is rapidly going down near negative but not yet at Niño threshold.