EPAC: INVEST 90E

[Yellow Evan]

Outflow is expansive and extends out towards the Eastern GOM. This might be one of the post-season upgrade systems, and it would be nice to break some more records.

Those are quite rare in the EPAC.

[stormkite]

This suggests it already has TS strength winds in the field.

[hurricanes1234]

I most certainly agree it looks better. Anyway, there's a special TWO coming at 8:00 PM PDT this evening, so we'll see what they say then. A best track website says unofficially it is up to 30 knots.

90E INVEST 140508 0000 16.1N 105.9W EPAC 30 1004

http://199.9.2.143/tcdat/sectors/atcf_sector_file

[Yellow Evan]

I most certainly agree it looks better. Anyway, there's a special TWO coming at 8:00 PM PDT this evening, so we'll see what they say then. A best track website says unofficially it is up to 30 knots.

90E INVEST 140508 0000 16.1N 105.9W EPAC 30 1004

http://199.9.2.143/tcdat/sectors/atcf_sector_file

Could this be a leak that we have a TD?

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

This suggests it already has TS strength winds in the field.

WindSAT does not deserve a second of your time. Close out that image and never open of that satellite again.

In all seriousness, though, it's terrible.

[hurricanes1234]

I most certainly agree it looks better. Anyway, there's a special TWO coming at 8:00 PM PDT this evening, so we'll see what they say then. A best track website says unofficially it is up to 30 knots.

90E INVEST 140508 0000 16.1N 105.9W EPAC 30 1004

http://199.9.2.143/tcdat/sectors/atcf_sector_file

Could this be a leak that we have a TD?

No, because the title is still 90E. It does, however, have the winds of a solid tropical depression.

[supercane4867]

No change

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
755 PM PDT WED MAY 7 2014

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 275 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF MANZANILLO MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE COAST OF MEXICO.
THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED...AND SOME
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE BECOMING LESS CONDUCIVE...AND LITTLE DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...
50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

ANOTHER SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY 8 AM PDT
THURSDAY...OR SOONER IF NECESSARY.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[hurricanes1234]

They did say that development could still occur. I think 50% is a good percent for this, because it's really uncertain whether it will or will not develop, even if it is briefly.

[MGC]

Looks pretty good but should be on land by tomorrow. We'll have to see what kind of wind is observed on land. Hopefully 90E brings some good rains to Texas.......MGC

[Yellow Evan]

They did say that development could still occur. I think 50% is a good percent for this, because it's really uncertain whether it will or will not develop, even if it is briefly.

I would have given it 60%. It looks almost classifiable IMO.

[euro6208]

90E INVEST 140508 0600 16.3N 105.1W EPAC 30 1004

No change in strength...

[hurricanes1234]

It is already very near to land. I think it is consolidating too slowly, and by later today, time may run out.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

It was a nice run, but the record for the earliest-forming East Pacific tropical cyclone remains intact.

[Hurricane_Luis]

Down to 20%

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST
OF ZIHUATENEJO MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ONSHORE OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO TODAY. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE CAUSED
THIS DISTURBANCE TO BECOME LESS ORGANIZED THIS MORNING...AND
DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS BECOMING LESS LIKELY. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE PRIMARILY OVER
PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF MICHOACAN AND GUERRERO TODAY.
THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES.

[Kingarabian]

Took too long to get its act together.

[hurricanes1234]

Took too long to get its act together.

I agree, it took way too long. Down to 0% and no development is expected. It appears as though the model which the NHC discussions said that showed nothing but a weak low may have been correct. Here's the last planned outlook:

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1040 AM PDT THU MAY 8 2014

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ZIHUATENEJO MEXICO
HAVE CONTINUED TO BECOME LESS ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS HAVE BECOME UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND THIS SYSTEM HAS
A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

THIS IS THE LAST PLANNED SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ON THIS
SYSTEM.

FORECASTER BROWN

[SeGaBob]

Down to 0%

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1040 AM PDT THU MAY 8 2014

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ZIHUATENEJO MEXICO
HAVE CONTINUED TO BECOME LESS ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS HAVE BECOME UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND THIS SYSTEM HAS
A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

THIS IS THE LAST PLANNED SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ON THIS
SYSTEM.

Edit: not sure if hurricanes1234 posted this before I did or edited his message after I posted...

[wxman57]

Testing, 1, 2, 3...

[hurricanes1234]

I'm really anxious to see what our first true storm of the season will be like. However, the models aren't showing much (see 2014 EPAC Season thread). 90E is a real mess and looks like a large thunderstorm.

[Yellow Evan]

It's about to move inland now.