2014 EPAC Season

[Yellow Evan]

Let's discuss what the models are hinting for development beyond 90E.

Another system; about 300 hours out. However, it's been showing this for a while now.

[hurricanes1234]

I guess nothing for a while, then.

[Yellow Evan]

I guess nothing for a while, then.

Patience. It's not even the official start of the season yet

With that said, the 18z GFS dropped it. The 12z system could be phantom since MJO is exiting soon AFAIK.

[supercane4867]

12z GFS shows a hurricane quickly forming off the coast just before May 15

[Kingarabian]

12z GFS shows a hurricane forming off the coast just before May 15

Interesting. But we need to see a disturbance very soon for it to happen in that time frame.

Could be a phantom...

[Yellow Evan]

12z GFS shows a hurricane forming off the coast just before May 15

Interesting. But we need to see a disturbance very soon for it to happen in that time frame.

Could be a phantom...

Eh, it's 132 hours out.



Has it near the MX coast at Day 12. Has it forming in about 90 hours, and peaking at 981 mbar. This could be an initialization error, but it has been in the CMC runs for a bit.

18z run will be interesting.

[supercane4867]

The monsoon trough remains active as enchanced by MJO pulse but nothing too organized at the moment

[hurricanes1234]

It may not be impossible given that the monsoon trough is full of instability and we almost had a tropical cyclone form a few days ago. We'll see what the 18z run says.

[Kingarabian]

I think we'll see another storm before June. MJO is going to leave an abundant amount of mioisture behind it.

[Yellow Evan]

Brings it even deeper in latest run. Has it taking similar course. This run has it meandering a little further offshore and weakening due to cold SSTs's due to upwelling.

[hurricanes1234]

Interesting. I personally think we will see Amanda not too long from now, and I think it will be a hurricane.

NOT OFFICIAL.

Edit: Wait, that's 979 mbar on May 15! Is that even possible, though?

STILL NOT OFFICIAL.

[Kingarabian]

From the discussion:

IN THE LONGER TERM...BOTH A SIGNIFICANT LATE-SEASON TEHUANTEPEC
GAP WIND EVENT AND A SIGNIFICANT EARLY-SEASON TROPICAL CYCLONE
ARE PREDICTED BY THE GFS. WHILE ALL GLOBAL MODELS ARE
CONSISTENT WITH THE GAP WIND EVENT REACHING GALE FORCE ON
WEDNESDAY AND/OR THURSDAY...THE MODELS ARE MORE SPLIT ON WHETHER
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL OCCUR WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING
ALMOST NOTHING ON THOSE DATES. THE WIND AND WAVE GRIDS REFLECT
A CONSENSUS OF A GALE FORCE GAP WIND EVENT...BUT ONLY A MODEST
LOW SOUTH OF SOUTHERN MEXICO AT THIS TIME.

[Yellow Evan]

Interesting. I personally think we will see Amanda not too long from now, and I think it will be a hurricane.

NOT OFFICIAL.

Edit: Wait, that's 979 mbar on May 15! Is that even possible, though?

STILL NOT OFFICIAL.

Tell that to Ekeka. In answer to your question, yes it is possible IMO. Likely? No

[cycloneye]

From the 10:05 UTC discussion.

LOOKING AHEAD...BOTH A LATE-SEASON GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE
FORCE GAP WIND EVENT AND AN EARLY-SEASON TROPICAL CYCLONE ARE
PREDICTED BY THE GFS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE ALL GLOBAL
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE GAP WIND EVENT POTENTIALLY
REACHING GALE FORCE ON WEDNESDAY AND/OR THURSDAY...THE MODELS
ARE MORE SPLIT ON WHETHER A TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL OCCUR. THOUGH
THERE ARE TIMING AND LOCATION DIFFERENCES...BOTH THE GFS AND
UKMET ARE DEVELOPING A TROPICAL CYCLONE WHILE THE ECMWF IS
DEVELOPING A MUCH WEAKER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS SCENARIO WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

[Alyono]

EC seems to be unable to resolve a TC in the deep tropics during the genesis phase. I fail to understand why some think it is the genesis gold standard when it is often worth less than the Indonesian Rupiah during the financial crisis

[Yellow Evan]

Bring it to 974 mbar. Not much changes.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

The 12z GFS doesn't develop anything.

[Yellow Evan]

The 12z GFS doesn't develop anything.

It shows a closed isobar but nothing else. However, convection has decreased markedly (probably temporary though), so this is no shellshock.

[hurricanes1234]

It's probably just a bad run. Sometimes this happens where one run totally drops it, then the others following it may bring it back.

[supercane4867]

12z ECMWF has a weak system developing further out to sea