Who thinks we'll see our first tropical cyclone out of it? I personally think so.
Not official.
2014 EPAC Season
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hurricanes1234
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Yellow Evan
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hurricanes1234 wrote:Who thinks we'll see our first tropical cyclone out of it? I personally think so.
Not official.
You don't have to say "not official" in every post.
I think we won't, but I really have no idea. An old adge from 2009 is true this season so far as well: Anything can happen
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Kingarabian
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Yellow Evan
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Kingarabian wrote:I'm very keen on development.
it's back on the GFS run's as a weak TS. I mostly just want to see Amanda.
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hurricanes1234
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Relatively dry air is in the vicinity of the area. It looks compact, though.
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Yellow Evan
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Re: 2014 EPAC Season
Latest run doesn't show much development.
So, now let's take a look at how the SST's are looking.
25C isotherm up to Cabo five days prior to the season's start. Not too shabby.
So, now let's take a look at how the SST's are looking.
25C isotherm up to Cabo five days prior to the season's start. Not too shabby.
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Yellow Evan
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Yellow Evan
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Re: 2014 EPAC Season
GFS shows a borderline hurricane at the end of the run. But it's after truncation, but it is probably not still the same system shown several days ago.
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hurricanes1234
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Hurricane season for this basin officially starts on Thursday. Are any models showing anything for May?
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Yellow Evan
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hurricanes1234 wrote:Hurricane season for this basin officially starts on Thursday. Are any models showing anything for May?
Nothing consistently. 12z GFS showed a hurricane in about 15 days, but it's after truncation, and did not show up on the 6z GFS.
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hurricanes1234
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Maybe the new tropical wave in the Atlantic may make it to EPAC.
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Yellow Evan
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hurricanes1234 wrote:Maybe the new tropical wave in the Atlantic may make it to EPAC.
It'll make it IMO, but too soon to say for sure if it will form. I'd lean towards no, given the fairly unfavorable MJO.
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hurricanes1234
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We will see. I think there will be at least one storm before May ends. Just to update you all, regular issuance of EPAC tropical outlooks begins at 5 AM PDT tomorrow.
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Often when shifting int the summer season the MJO signal becomes weaker and incohorent and if there is a developing ENSO signal certain basins start behaving more in favor of the El Nino/La Nina. Should definitely start watching the EPAC these next couple of weeks.
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Yellow Evan
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Re: 2014 EPAC Season
Models getting more and more aggressive. GFS has shown this for 4 straight runs, only making it deeper and deeper each run. Now inside truncation.
Latest run from GFS brought it to 967 mbar.
Latest run from GFS brought it to 967 mbar.
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hurricanes1234
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Re: 2014 EPAC Season
Yellow Evan wrote:Models getting more and more aggressive. GFS has shown this for 4 straight runs, only making it deeper and deeper each run. Now inside truncation.
Latest run from GFS brought it to 967 mbar.
That pressure is characteristic of a strong Category 2. Is it showing this before end of May?
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TropicalAnalystwx13
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Re: 2014 EPAC Season
hurricanes1234 wrote:Yellow Evan wrote:Models getting more and more aggressive. GFS has shown this for 4 straight runs, only making it deeper and deeper each run. Now inside truncation.
Latest run from GFS brought it to 967 mbar.
That pressure is characteristic of a strong Category 2. Is it showing this before end of May?
Next Thursday.
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Yellow Evan
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Re: 2014 EPAC Season
TropicalAnalystwx13 wrote:hurricanes1234 wrote:Yellow Evan wrote:Models getting more and more aggressive. GFS has shown this for 4 straight runs, only making it deeper and deeper each run. Now inside truncation.
Latest run from GFS brought it to 967 mbar.
That pressure is characteristic of a strong Category 2. Is it showing this before end of May?
Next Thursday.
It's only one run though. It may be could a possible major (don't take pressure/intensities from models literally). Also worth noting that CMC does not make it as strong. I think something will form, but I don't think we'll see anything more than TS. Still, it's way down the line. The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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cycloneye
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Re: 2014 EPAC Season
First 2014 EPAC TWO.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT THU MAY 15 2014
CORRECTED FOR DATE AND TIME IN THE HEADER
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE:
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.
TODAY MARKS THE FIRST DAY OF THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE
SEASON, WHICH WILL RUN UNTIL NOVEMBER 30. LONG-TERM AVERAGES FOR
THE NUMBER OF NAMED STORMS, HURRICANES, AND MAJOR HURRICANES ARE
15, 8, AND 4, RESPECTIVELY.
THE LIST OF NAMES FOR 2014 IS AS FOLLOWS:
NAME PRONUNCIATION NAME PRONUNCIATION
-------------------------------------------------------------
AMANDA UH-MAN-DUH MARIE MUH-REE
BORIS BOR-EES NORBERT NOR-BERT
CRISTINA KRIS-TEE-NUH ODILE OH-DEAL
DOUGLAS DUG-LUSS POLO POH-LOH
ELIDA ELL-EE-DAH RACHEL RAY-CHULL
FAUSTO FOW-STO SIMON SY-MUHN
GENEVIEVE JEH-NUH-VEEV TRUDY TROO-DEE
HERNAN HER-NAHN VANCE VANSS
ISELLE EE-SELL WINNIE WIN-EE
JULIO HOO-LEE-O XAVIER ZAY-VEE-UR
KARINA KUR-REE-NUH YOLANDA YO-LAHN-DA
LOWELL LO-UHL ZEKE ZEEK
THIS PRODUCT, THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK, BRIEFLY DESCRIBES
SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF DISTURBED WEATHER AND THEIR POTENTIAL FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. THE
ISSUANCE TIMES OF THIS PRODUCT ARE 5 AM, 11 AM, 5 PM, AND 11 PM PDT.
AFTER THE CHANGE TO STANDARD TIME IN NOVEMBER, THE ISSUANCE TIMES
ARE 4 AM, 10 AM, 4 PM, AND 10 PM PST.
A SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED TO PROVIDE
UPDATES, AS NECESSARY, IN BETWEEN THE REGULARLY SCHEDULED
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS. SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS WILL
BE ISSUED UNDER THE SAME WMO AND AWIPS HEADERS AS THE REGULAR
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS.
A STANDARD PACKAGE OF PRODUCTS, CONSISTING OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
PUBLIC ADVISORY, THE FORECAST/ADVISORY, THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION, AND THE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES, IS ISSUED EVERY
SIX HOURS FOR ALL ONGOING TROPICAL CYCLONES. IN ADDITION, A
SPECIAL ADVISORY PACKAGE MAY BE ISSUED AT ANY TIME TO ADVISE OF
SIGNIFICANT UNEXPECTED CHANGES OR TO MODIFY WATCHES OR WARNINGS.
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE IS A BRIEF STATEMENT TO INFORM OF
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN A TROPICAL CYCLONE OR TO POST OR CANCEL
WATCHES OR WARNINGS. IT IS USED IN LIEU OF OR TO PRECEDE THE
ISSUANCE OF A SPECIAL ADVISORY. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES, WHICH
CAN BE ISSUED AT ANY TIME, CAN BE FOUND UNDER WMO HEADER WTPZ61-65
KNHC, AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCUEP1-5.
ALL NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TEXT AND GRAPHICAL PRODUCTS ARE
AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT http://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV. YOU CAN ALSO
INTERACT WITH NHC ON FACEBOOK AT HTTPS://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNHC.
NOTIFICATIONS ARE AVAILABLE ON TWITTER WHEN SELECT NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER PRODUCTS ARE ISSUED. INFORMATION ABOUT OUR EAST
PACIFIC TWITTER FEED IS AVAILABLE AT
http://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/TWITTER.PHP.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT THU MAY 15 2014
CORRECTED FOR DATE AND TIME IN THE HEADER
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE:
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.
TODAY MARKS THE FIRST DAY OF THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE
SEASON, WHICH WILL RUN UNTIL NOVEMBER 30. LONG-TERM AVERAGES FOR
THE NUMBER OF NAMED STORMS, HURRICANES, AND MAJOR HURRICANES ARE
15, 8, AND 4, RESPECTIVELY.
THE LIST OF NAMES FOR 2014 IS AS FOLLOWS:
NAME PRONUNCIATION NAME PRONUNCIATION
-------------------------------------------------------------
AMANDA UH-MAN-DUH MARIE MUH-REE
BORIS BOR-EES NORBERT NOR-BERT
CRISTINA KRIS-TEE-NUH ODILE OH-DEAL
DOUGLAS DUG-LUSS POLO POH-LOH
ELIDA ELL-EE-DAH RACHEL RAY-CHULL
FAUSTO FOW-STO SIMON SY-MUHN
GENEVIEVE JEH-NUH-VEEV TRUDY TROO-DEE
HERNAN HER-NAHN VANCE VANSS
ISELLE EE-SELL WINNIE WIN-EE
JULIO HOO-LEE-O XAVIER ZAY-VEE-UR
KARINA KUR-REE-NUH YOLANDA YO-LAHN-DA
LOWELL LO-UHL ZEKE ZEEK
THIS PRODUCT, THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK, BRIEFLY DESCRIBES
SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF DISTURBED WEATHER AND THEIR POTENTIAL FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. THE
ISSUANCE TIMES OF THIS PRODUCT ARE 5 AM, 11 AM, 5 PM, AND 11 PM PDT.
AFTER THE CHANGE TO STANDARD TIME IN NOVEMBER, THE ISSUANCE TIMES
ARE 4 AM, 10 AM, 4 PM, AND 10 PM PST.
A SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED TO PROVIDE
UPDATES, AS NECESSARY, IN BETWEEN THE REGULARLY SCHEDULED
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS. SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS WILL
BE ISSUED UNDER THE SAME WMO AND AWIPS HEADERS AS THE REGULAR
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS.
A STANDARD PACKAGE OF PRODUCTS, CONSISTING OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
PUBLIC ADVISORY, THE FORECAST/ADVISORY, THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION, AND THE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES, IS ISSUED EVERY
SIX HOURS FOR ALL ONGOING TROPICAL CYCLONES. IN ADDITION, A
SPECIAL ADVISORY PACKAGE MAY BE ISSUED AT ANY TIME TO ADVISE OF
SIGNIFICANT UNEXPECTED CHANGES OR TO MODIFY WATCHES OR WARNINGS.
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE IS A BRIEF STATEMENT TO INFORM OF
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN A TROPICAL CYCLONE OR TO POST OR CANCEL
WATCHES OR WARNINGS. IT IS USED IN LIEU OF OR TO PRECEDE THE
ISSUANCE OF A SPECIAL ADVISORY. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES, WHICH
CAN BE ISSUED AT ANY TIME, CAN BE FOUND UNDER WMO HEADER WTPZ61-65
KNHC, AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCUEP1-5.
ALL NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TEXT AND GRAPHICAL PRODUCTS ARE
AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT http://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV. YOU CAN ALSO
INTERACT WITH NHC ON FACEBOOK AT HTTPS://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNHC.
NOTIFICATIONS ARE AVAILABLE ON TWITTER WHEN SELECT NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER PRODUCTS ARE ISSUED. INFORMATION ABOUT OUR EAST
PACIFIC TWITTER FEED IS AVAILABLE AT
http://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/TWITTER.PHP.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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