ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Ntxw]

It's been a slow, loooong process. But this is what we have achieved so far. We're talking about waters that move only a few meters per second!





Not bad for the first third of the year. From here on forward is when ENSO events likes makes it's claim, where the real event kicks in. The building blocks laid down, fruits of labor to be had. Ocean Kelvin wave in the western basin is looking pretty good.

[Ntxw]

Here's something interesting I've found, not sure if anyone's posted. The CPC is blogging about the coming El Nino, seemingly the first of it's kind for any ENSO event. Perhaps we can get some insight every now and then from individual forecasters within the group instead of just the formal weekly updates.

http://www.climate.gov/news-features/department/8443/all

[cycloneye]

Here's something interesting I've found, not sure if anyone's posted. The CPC is blogging about the coming El Nino, seemingly the first of it's kind for any ENSO event. Perhaps we can get some insight every now and then from individual forecasters within the group instead of just the formal weekly updates.

http://www.climate.gov/news-features/department/8443/all

Very interesting site that I bookmarked.

[cycloneye]

The rollercoaster continues as SOI is going up again.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/soi.txt

[dexterlabio]

I noticed that the SOI goes up when MJO is about to enter the Indian Ocean...and last time the MJO entered EPAC, daily SOI crashed to -35. Why is that?

[stormkite]

Current equatorial surface wind analysis indicated modest east anomalies over the Maritime Continent fading to neutral on the dateline. Neutral anomalies continued east of there extending to a point south of Hawaii and then turning light to modest westerly over the Galapagos into Central America. A week from now (5/17) east anomalies are expected to be gone with light westerly anomalies developing over the Eastern Maritime Continent reaching to the dateline, turning neutral there and continuing south of Hawaii and holding neutral over the Galapagos and Central America. In all this suggests the Active Phase of the MJO was moving over the Galapagos while the Inactive Phase has peaked over the far West Pacific and is expected to move east and fade before reaching the dateline in the next 5-7 days. This remains good news. The issue with this Inactive Phase is that it's easterly anomalies have likely shut down the transport of warm water to the east. This would mark the first stoppage of warm water transport since the beginning of the year, potentially cutting the legs of the evolving warm water pool in the East Pacific. Westerly anomalies need to redevelop in the West Pacific.
http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/forecast ... rent.shtml



Surface winds false start is on the cards just like so many other times.

[Ntxw]

I noticed that the SOI goes up when MJO is about to enter the Indian Ocean...and last time the MJO entered EPAC, daily SOI crashed to -35. Why is that?

+23 on the daily SOI as a result

[cycloneye]

I only ask a basic question. What is going to happen with ENSO as things may have stalled? (See 2 posts above)

[tolakram]

Are we cancelling El Nino again.

I kid of course, but last time around the indicators going the wrong way didn't seem to mean much.

[dexterlabio]

I think we need a very strong MJO stuck in WPAC to cement this El Nino. Let's see where it will go in the coming weeks... Will it enter the "ring" after crossing the Indian Ocean or will it emerge as strong in the WPAC?

[dexterlabio]

Are we cancelling El Nino again.

I kid of course, but last time around the indicators going the wrong way didn't seem to mean much.

I myself would want to cancel this EN. But is it too late to cancel whatever is present in the Pacific right now? I mean the Pacific is in a classic +PDO configuration...no cold water off Alaska and West USA to mix with those in the Nino region.. -PDO killed the El Nino attempt in 2012.

[NDG]

Something is going to have to give with the SOI index so high, it either is going to have to crash pretty soon or a moderate to strong El Niño is not in to be in the pictute any time soon.

[Yellow Evan]

Something is going to have to give with the SOI index so high, it either is going to have to crash pretty soon or a moderate to strong El Niño is not in to be in the pictute any time soon.

SOI come and go in spikes. It was very negative like 5 days ago. I would not take too much thought into it.

[stormkite]

Are we cancelling El Nino again.

I kid of course, but last time around the indicators going the wrong way didn't seem to mean much.

Atm there is nothing to cancel as far as i know we are still neutral. IOD is still neutral as well not trying to offend anyone here but there's two much chicken counting before any eggs have hatched.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

2009 and other years had even a higher SOI when the El Niño SSTs were me. In early July 2009, when it was declared, the SOI was positive.

What made the SOI positive anyway?

[stormkite]

2009 and other years had even a higher SOI when the El Niño SSTs were me. In early July 2009, when it was declared, the SOI was positive.

What made the SOI positive anyway?

The inactive phase of the MJO.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Kingarabian]

Are we cancelling El Nino again.

I kid of course, but last time around the indicators going the wrong way didn't seem to mean much.

Atm there is nothing to cancel as far as i know we are still neutral. IOD is still neutral as well not trying to offend anyone here but there's two much chicken counting before any eggs have hatched.

The eggs began hatching when the strong sub-surface pool started to reach surface.

[stormkite]

Are we cancelling El Nino again.

I kid of course, but last time around the indicators going the wrong way didn't seem to mean much.

Atm there is nothing to cancel as far as i know we are still neutral. IOD is still neutral as well not trying to offend anyone here but there's two much chicken counting before any eggs have hatched.

The eggs began hatching when the strong sub-surface pool started to reach surface.

And thats official?

If your so keen on being in a hurricane Kingarabian suggest you travel to another country where the odds are much higher Wespac/USA.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

30 day SOI went down slightly to 2.3.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Our country has some water and electricity shortages. A major dam went below the critical level due to no rainfall. Are these the effects of the precursor El Niño. I hope the El Niño will not worsen this.

The last time this has occurred was during the summer of 2010, and that was after its peak. It is already just before the El Niño was even officially declared yet that the dams are losing water below the critical level.