ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[cycloneye]

The large warm pool remains but (A little bit thinner) on the latest update as of May 8. Now let's see if more warming occurs.

[Ntxw]

Weekly SST's ENSO data shows we have our first 0.5C reading at 3.4. Should be coming out in a few hours to make it official. All regions have warmed from last week while 1+2 is at 1.2C, 3 at 0.6C, and 4 at 0.8C.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

The large warm pool remains but (A little bit thinner) on the latest update as of May 8. Now let's see if more warming occurs.

Yes, sir. It will even get thinner and even weaken. That is because of it surfacing over the Pacific.

CFSv2 forecast.

However, this will produce a weak-to-moderate El Niño and the warmest anomalies by July may only be at 3ºC. By late summer to early autumn, this pool starts to reorganize and reintensify. Some 5ºC anomalies return by early Winter producing a strong to poosibly super El Niño. It will weaken by February after its peak.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Weekly SST's ENSO data shows we have our first 0.5C reading at 3.4. Should be coming out in a few hours to make it official. All regions have warmed from last week while 1+2 is at 1.2C, 3 at 0.6C, and 4 at 0.8C.

Massive warming. Niño 1+2 is at Moderate status! This is quite early for an El Niño year, and I guess we're in one of the earliest years of the first 0.5 anomaly for El Niño since 1990 but behind 1997.

1991 May 8
1994 Jun 1
1997 Apr 23
2002 May 29
2004 Jul 21
2006 Aug 23
2009 Jun 17
2014 May 7

This is the first time since Nov 14 2012 that we have an anomaly at El Niño threshold. We were mainly at cool neutral since 2013 until Mar 19 2014, where it stalled above 0.1 and rapidly warmed by late April.

Usually, if it starts earlier, it ends up being stronger.

[cycloneye]

Is official=CPC 5/12/14 update has Nino 3.4 at +0.5C

But still there will be no El Nino declared yet as things have to sustain at this +0.5C level and higher for the next 4-8 weeks.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[euro6208]

After all that waiting it is finally here...

Kinda disappointed that we are now behind 1997 but i'll take any el nino

Now let's see how strong this will turn into...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

After all that waiting it is finally here...

Finally, yes. It is going to warm even more.

Kinda disappointed that we are now behind 1997 but i'll take any el nino

Why? It's actually good news. If it were like 1997 it would cause a parade of typhoons raging your place and a dry spell affecting our region, SE Asia. We would not want devastation, again! The 1997 El Niño was very historic.

Now let's see how strong this will turn into...

I suggest you follow the forecasts of CFSv2 in SHORT TERM as what they forecasted is actually happening right now but not previously. Wait for it to reach moderate status which exceeds 1.0 in region 3.4. For long range, the best analogs for this year's El Niño are 1972, which occurred on a cold PDO era and had very warm subsurface temp anomalies; and, 1991, which had its first El Niño anomaly at roughly a similar date.

[cycloneye]

After all that waiting it is finally here...

Kinda disappointed that we are now behind 1997 but i'll take any el nino

Now let's see how strong this will turn into...

Don't open the champagne yet. No El Nino declaration yet.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Again, here are the SST departures for this week. They are typical of a canonical/traditional El Niño.
Niño 1+2: +1.2ºC
Niño 3: +0.6ºC
Niño 3.4: +0.5ºC
Niño 4: +0.8ºC

As those anomalies warmed a lot compared to last week.
Niño 1+2: +0.8ºC
Niño 3: +0.5ºC
Niño 3.4: +0.4ºC
Niño 4: +0.7ºC

[Ntxw]

The eastern ENSO regions are really picking up steam. As our friend Tolakram said earlier, these negative indices aren't doing much to bring it down in the long run thus far. All they have done is stall it for a little, blips are then over taken again. Sure they brought it down from record territory but it's just as big if not bigger than the others.

This is about as classic as it's supposed to look in the early stages of a full blown El Nino in the equatorial Pacific. Not here and there warmth, basin wide.

[Cyclenall]

Kinda disappointed that we are now behind 1997 but i'll take any el nino

Why? It's actually good news. If it were like 1997 it would cause a parade of typhoons raging your place and a dry spell affecting our region, SE Asia. We would not want devastation, again! The 1997 El Niño was very historic.

Well I for one is disappointed, just another disappointment in a long list of them so far in 2014. First I didn't want any El Nino since its effects on global and local weather are far less interesting in my eyes to other ENSO states, then when one was likely to show up it was building up to be unprecedented in warming sub-surface values and various indexes that are used to show how powerful one could get. That was unique and riveting on some level, now even that is back-pedaling a bit . Average and mediocre weather doesn't do anything for me, no point in intensely tracking that but merely just keeping tabs on it.

[Ntxw]

Jason-2 Sea surface height anoms from NASA also updated. Nino 1+2 was the last to go and look where it has ended up.

[Ntxw]

Bob Tisdale's blogs on ENSO sure is interesting. While I don't know his background in such information, I did pick up something new. Never knew NOAA had another index similar to Australia's SOI, being the ESOI or Equatorial Southern Oscillation index which is less noise and covers a bigger area. But if you want a read on the SOI and how it works, good page to check out.

http://bobtisdale.wordpress.com/2014/05 ... #more-7037

"...CLOSING

The Southern Oscillation Index from BOM has been around for a long time. It is a commonly used ENSO index. It is noisy and, at times, does not appear to reflect what’s taking place along the equatorial Pacific. Then again, it is much studied with respect to its impact on weather in Australia and New Zealand.

It appears that NOAA’s Equatorial Southern Oscillation Index better reflects what’s taking place along the equator in the Pacific, where ENSO events take place, but it is not as popular as the BOM SOI."

Alyono has said before too much has been dependent on just two locations on a small scale. Lets see if we can continue to put the two indices to the test



Edit: To skip for those who want to just look at the ESOI index. This index monthly appears to follow closer to what ONI eventually ends up.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/reqsoi.for

[stormkite]

Almost everybody is here to learn Ntxw can you please explain the current atmospheric conditions that support the El Niño is here posts i will find that more interesting than the above link.

[Ntxw]

Almost everybody is here to learn Ntxw can you please explain the current atmospheric conditions that support the El Niño is here posts i will find that more interesting than the above link.

It's not so much the stuff he wrote about, unless you want to pick up on how the SOI is calculated without just looking at equations. But I'm just pointing out there's another index used by NOAA that we haven't picked up on being the ESOI as a tool.

Here's the full page to NOAA's indices relating to the Pacific including ESOI. I've been using this for years for ENSO weekly values (before the updates) and never bothered to click on that

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Almost everybody is here to learn Ntxw can you please explain the current atmospheric conditions that support the El Niño is here posts i will find that more interesting than the above link.

It's not so much the stuff he wrote about, unless you want to pick up on how the SOI is calculated without just looking at equations. But I'm just pointing out there's another index used by NOAA that we haven't picked up on being the ESOI as a tool.

Here's the full page to NOAA's indices relating to the Pacific including ESOI. I've been using this for years for ENSO weekly values (before the updates) and never bothered to click on that

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/

ESOI may be more accurate. The main stuff during the El Niño happens by the equator. This compares the pressures equatorial Indonesia and South America. The SOI occurs in higher latitudes however, far south, were the main warming/cooling does not take place.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Next thing to check, ONI values. This is what determines if an El Niño event is going on. Similar rules with the SST, there has to be a trimonthly value of at least 0.5 to be declared an El Niño. My guess for the first period is AMJ. This is when the most significant warming occurred and when the SST departures were mainly positive, then the El Niño (+0.5ºC) anomalies first appeared.

[stormkite]

The predicted SST field contains forecast SST anomalies for the tropical oceans and damped-persisted observed SST anomalies for the mid-latitude oceans. At this time, the SST predictions are made separately for each of the tropical ocean basins. In the tropical Pacific Ocean (15S-15N) the forecast SSTs are produced at NCEP using their coupled climate model, CMP12 (Pacific basin ocean/global atmosphere), where the ocean has been initialized with assimilated observed ocean temperature data as measured by the TAO buoy array. For the tropical Atlantic Ocean (18S-30N) SST anomalies are forecast at CPTEC (Brazil) using the statistical method of CCA (canonical correlation analysis). The predictors for the tropical Atlantic CCA prediction of SST is the recent observed SST anomalies in the tropical Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. The Indian Ocean SST anomalies (15S-15N) are also forecast using a CCA technique, which is run at the IRI. The predictors for the tropical Indian Ocean SST are the recently observed SST anomalies in the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans and also the NCEP forecasts for the tropical Pacific. The tropical oceans where forecast SST anomalies are specified are smoothed into the mid-latitude observed SST anomalies over approximately 8 degress of latitude. In the mid-latitudes, the SST field is damped from observed initial SST anomalies to climatology


The global SST anomalies are predicted as unchanging from the latest observed field. The prescribed SST field is thus persisted (held fixed). The observed SST anomalies are taken from the month previous to when the forecast was made and added to the climatological monthly average SSTs to obtain the total SST values that are used as boundary conditions to force the AGCM.

[JonathanBelles]

Next thing to check, ONI values. This is what determines if an El Niño event is going on. Similar rules with the SST, there has to be a trimonthly value of at least 0.5 to be declared an El Niño. My guess for the first period is AMJ. This is when the most significant warming occurred and when the SST departures were mainly positive, then the El Niño (+0.5ºC) anomalies first appeared.

As of today's update, the FMA value was -0.5°C. Still a long way to go.

[Ntxw]

MAM will be positive, 0.1 to 0.3 if I'm eyeballing the weeklies. March only saw 2 negative readings below 0C the rest of that month and April saw above, and we can assume no negatives will occur in the weeklies for May. If it begins in AMJ the earliest we will find out is July if it is MJJ that will be August. However by then we may already be seeing 0.5 to +1C in the weeklies so a little too late.

Source: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for