ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Next thing to check, ONI values. This is what determines if an El Niño event is going on. Similar rules with the SST, there has to be a trimonthly value of at least 0.5 to be declared an El Niño. My guess for the first period is AMJ. This is when the most significant warming occurred and when the SST departures were mainly positive, then the El Niño (+0.5ºC) anomalies first appeared.

As of today's update, the FMA value was -0.5°C. Still a long way to go.

It was because February had La Niña anomalies and big negatives. By March 19th, the anomalies shifted to warm neutral till the end of April. This brings us to a La Niña value of -0.5 for FMA. Now, for MAM, which does not include the big negatives we had in February, but includes those slight negatives of early March. Mostly, MAM was positive all throughout excluding those cool neutral values and will include the El niño values and the positives, which may bring us to a warm neutral value at least.

[cycloneye]

Great graphic to compare the 82-97 and 2014.

@EricBlake12
A provocative illustration from CPC of where 2014 compares to selected strong El Ninos at this time of the year

[Ntxw]

1982 was a very slow developing one. For being the second strongest, if we were tracking it like we are now everyone would doubt it could become anything more than weak to moderate at best. It almost died out late summer and took its sweet time to crank up sst's. But when it did in the fall, it really blew up heat, probably stronger than 97 but for a much shorter time. Caught many scientists and forecasters off guard thinking a weak nino was in store from what I've read, thus the creation of the TAO buoys.

[Nimbus]

El Nino usually means lots of shear in the Atlantic but a few storms always seem to make it through.
1992 was a mild El Nino year with the first storm in August so go figure.
Glad the experts are predicting a slow season.

[Yellow Evan]

El Nino usually means lots of shear in the Atlantic but a few storms always seem to make it through.
1992 was a mild El Nino year with the first storm in August so go figure.
Glad the experts are predicting a slow season.

1992 isn't really an El Nino year (it had dissipated by early summer 1992). Though the remnants of the El Nino still likely had some effect on the Atlantic.

[HurrMark]

1992 was not as quiet (sans Andrew) as you might think...in fact, Andrew should have been Charlie or aliasing Danielle...the STS in April would have been named today and there was at least one other system before Andrew that should have been declared a TS..

[Ntxw]

+3 to +4C anomalies are surfacing in Nino 1+2 and it's been slowly spreading west. According to the TAO buoys some +2C anoms are popping up in the far eastern regions of Nino 3. This thing means business.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

30 day SOI now at +1.1. It is stairstepping as of now, but it is more likely to fall to negative.

Daily rounded SST anomalies:
Niño 1+2: +1.4ºC
Niño 3: +0.6ºC
Niño 3.4: +0.5ºC
Niño 4: +0.8ºC

For the next CPC and BOM updates, they usually put the estimate higher, probably by +0.1 which could mean Niño 1+2 will be at STRONG status and Niño 3.4 could have its second week on El Niño threshold.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I guess this El Niño would be stronger than what we previously had expected, and the weakening of the warm pool would be less significant. We are warming faster than expected.

[stormkite]

Next thing to check, ONI values. This is what determines if an El Niño event is going on. Similar rules with the SST, there has to be a trimonthly value of at least 0.5 to be declared an El Niño. My guess for the first period is AMJ. This is when the most significant warming occurred and when the SST departures were mainly positive, then the El Niño (+0.5ºC) anomalies first appeared.

My understanding is el nino is defined when the threshold is met for atleast of 5 consecutive over lapping seasons.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

BTW, we are catching up with 1997, although we are warming faster. 1997 had a blip in the next update.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Next thing to check, ONI values. This is what determines if an El Niño event is going on. Similar rules with the SST, there has to be a trimonthly value of at least 0.5 to be declared an El Niño. My guess for the first period is AMJ. This is when the most significant warming occurred and when the SST departures were mainly positive, then the El Niño (+0.5ºC) anomalies first appeared.

My understanding is el nino is defined when the threshold is met for atleast of 5 consecutive over lapping seasons.

Nope. There must be 3 consecutive months of an anomaly in the Niño region 3.4 of +0.5ºC and to produce an ONI of 0.5 for a trimonthly period, which is based on the SST anomaly departures of 4 Niño regions. First El Niño anomaly in 1997 appeared on April 23, then an El Niño was declared by May. It is because the high anomalies in Niño 1+2 and 3 made the ONI higher.

[Ntxw]

Next thing to check, ONI values. This is what determines if an El Niño event is going on. Similar rules with the SST, there has to be a trimonthly value of at least 0.5 to be declared an El Niño. My guess for the first period is AMJ. This is when the most significant warming occurred and when the SST departures were mainly positive, then the El Niño (+0.5ºC) anomalies first appeared.

My understanding is el nino is defined when the threshold is met for atleast of 5 consecutive over lapping seasons.

Nope. There must be 3 consecutive months of an anomaly in the Niño region 3.4 of +0.5ºC and to produce an ONI of 0.5 for a trimonthly period, which is based on the SST anomaly departures of 4 Niño regions. First El Niño anomaly in 1997 appeared on April 23, then an El Niño was declared by May. It is because the high anomalies in Niño 1+2 and 3 made the ONI higher.

ONI and the way it works (with ENSO) is an index calculated AFTER it occurs. For instance lets say AMJ produces the beginning of El Nino ONI. That means El Nino began in April and throughout May and June. The calculation can't be done until the last month is finished meaning we won't know it began in those months until July, by then it's already there. CPC officially calls an event El Nino/La Nina in the books once you get 5 trimonthlies, after it occurs. So you were living it, but you wouldn't know for sure until after it has happened. The same can be said about the trimonthly.

A declaration is when there is sufficient evidence beyond reason of a doubt that an ENSO event is occuring if I'm not mistaken, held at the discretion of CPC when they believe there is no going back.

[Ntxw]

Strung together an animation using AVHRR SST data for various dates this year to give an idea of the evolution (in some cases ups and downs) we have gone through!

[xtyphooncyclonex]

ONI and the way it works (with ENSO) is an index calculated AFTER it occurs. For instance lets say AMJ produces the beginning of El Nino ONI. That means El Nino began in April and throughout May and June. The calculation can't be done until the last month is finished meaning we won't know it began in those months until July, by then it's already there. CPC officially calls an event El Nino/La Nina in the books once you get 5 trimonthlies, after it occurs. So you were living it, but you wouldn't know for sure until after it has happened. The same can be said about the trimonthly.

A declaration is when there is sufficient evidence beyond reason of a doubt that an ENSO event is occuring if I'm not mistaken, held at the discretion of CPC when they believe there is no going back.

Ok. Thanks for the clarification though. This ENSO stuff is quite complicated though, yet I'm interested in it. I don't know as much about the ONI. So which means if our first trimonthly would be AMJ, it would be April as when the El Niño threshold began. And when do you think the El Niño will most likely be declared?

[euro6208]

Whatever this el nino decides on how strong it wants to be, the West Pacific will certainly be a hellish place to live with billions of people having to deal with drought, heat, and the parade of typhoons. This is the global warming of the future according to many U.S experts but it is happening right now not in the overhyped U.S but in the Western Pacific and has been for decades and expected to get worser...

[euro6208]

This ENSO stuff is quite complicated though, yet I'm interested in it.

Yup we have alot to learn. Been watching this since 1997 and still have many many problems with it lol and how enso works. Me, I like to sit back, watch, and learn...maybe ask a few questions.

There's so much mystery with this earthly phenomenon.

tYehova...

[Kingarabian]

A little outdated.

[ninel conde]

i sure hope this el nino can somehow bring rain to CA. this multi year pattern of west coast ridge east coast trof is getting old. i wouldnt be surprised to see the el nino collapse this fall and once again continue the drought out west.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

30 day SOI is close to negative, now at +0.9 after stalling in +1-+2 for several days now. It could go down even more.