Texas Spring-2014

[wxman57]

Only .17 here :/ the curse lives on.

You might edit your profile to insert a general location. Can't tell where "here" is. I measured a bit over 3" in SW Houston.

[Texas Snowman]

In 2,288 hours, the GFS has five cats in the gulf!

http://img842.imageshack.us/img842/6400/eq23a.jpg

Finally. The GFS is finally onto something.

Did any of y'all see the AFD from Juneau, Alaska a couple of days ago?

The first paragraph is a classic!

-----


"000
FXAK67 PAJK 131401
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
601 AM AKDT TUE MAY 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...PICKING A MODEL OF CHOICE FOR THE DAY IS A LITTLE
LIKE SPEED-DATING: TOO LITTLE TIME/INFORMATION TO MAKE UP THE
MIND LEADING TO REGRETS BY THE END OF THE DATE/SHIFT. THE
AMERICAN NAM IS MODERN, DETAIL-ORIENTED, PROLIFIC, WILLING IF A
LITTLE IMPETUOUS AND INCREDIBLY REACTIONARY. THE AMERICAN
GFS--THE MODEL NEXT DOOR--QUITE OLD FASHIONED, AN OPEN BOOK, EASY
ON THE EYES IF A LITTLE STAID AT TIMES. ALWAYS TALKING ABOUT THE
FUTURE WHILE WHITE-WASHING THE PRESENT. THE CANADIAN SOMETIMES A
LITTLE PRO-EUROPEAN SOMETIMES A LITTLE PRO AMERICAN...MANY TIMES
HARD TO READ, BUT OFTEN HAS A SUNNIER OUTLOOK THAN THE OTHERS.
TOO SUNNY SOMETIMES. AND THAT EUROPEAN ONE...INTELLIGENT, TREND-
SETTING, AND ALLURING-- ONLY APPEARING TWICE A DAY--MAKES ME WANT
MORE. AND TODAY I WANTED MORE AGAIN SO I MADE MY SELECTION. BUT
SOMETIMES I LOOK BACK AND WONDER WHAT COULD HAVE BEEN...."

[Portastorm]

Only .17 here :/ the curse lives on.

You might edit your profile to insert a general location. Can't tell where "here" is. I measured a bit over 3" in SW Houston.

This person is located in Del Rio, but I'll defer to the member about the decision to update (or not) the profile.

[aggiecutter]

Good article about the developing El Nino. If the El Nino develops as expected, then there will be no need for winter cancel because it more than likely will have never started. However, it looks like there could be a lot of rain.

http://www.earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IO ... iotd_title

[aggiecutter]

3 day rainfall totals for NE Texas:

[Ntxw]

I'm starting to think these troughs parking just to our west is a net result of El Nino asserting itself and not just some anomalous feature. The EPAC close to Mexico looks favorable for development. The Euro looks bullish, especially if you add an epac storm into the west trough/SE ridge. It creates a "lane" or path that comes right through Texas for moisture between the two features from the tropics. Often late May and June can give a snippet of the dominant pattern that then becomes persistent for the summer. And often, unlike a modoki, a traditional El Nino features troughing over the Southwest vs the southeast.

[WeatherGuesser]

There’s a few scattered showers across the Houston area on this brisk morning, but the clouds and rain will clear out and make for a sunny afternoon with a high only of about 70 degrees. That’s more than 15 degrees below normal for this time of year.

But the real story may come tonight. Thursday’s forecast low temperature is 48 degrees at Bush Intercontinental Airport. The record low for May 15 in Houston is 49 degrees, set back in 1890.

Thus Houston could break a cold record temperature that is 125 years old.

http://blog.chron.com/weather/2014/05/w ... -thursday/

For now, it appears College Station will be breaking their old record of 50 degrees set in 1942. Thursday morning is expected to bottom out at 48 degrees.

The cool down is thanks to a strong cold front that crawled through the region Tuesday. The colder air behind it has been filtering through the region Wednesday.

http://www.click2houston.com/weather/re ... g/25976836

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

1C here now.....I'm off to haul my plants in from the porch.

[aggiecutter]

Texarkana's low last night was 43. That broke the previous record low of 45 for the date.

[texas1836]

It was a pleasant 47 in McKinney this morning. I could do this year round.

[Texas Snowman]

47 degrees in Denison this morning for the low. Not as cool as the local TV mets were forecasting (43-45). But still a very, very pleasant morning for bike riding in the Red River Valley!

[Tireman4]

49 in Humble this morning. My five mile run was spectacular. I hate morning runs, but I could not pass this up. 7:36 pace and I did not start to sweat until the 2.5 mile mark. Gosh, why cannot this not be ALL year around in Houston? Even today's run at 5 pm will be sweet ( sweaty too).

[ronyan]

49.1F here on my station, unusual for mid May but I'll take it!

[Ntxw]

Euro is quite bullish with said pattern. Very slow moving SW trough/low drawing up moisture from a significant Epac cyclone with lots of low level gulf flow from SE ridge. This analog pattern has produced some significant rains for the state in the past. It's a week out though but the hints have been persistent

[aggiecutter]

This can't be right for Nacogdoches:

[TheProfessor]

Yeah thats a little weird, you don't usually see that much a difference in lows that close together. Maybe someone in Nacogdoches has a weather machine.

[Ntxw]

NWS FW starting to take a little bite of the cake. A little change from their bleak outlook before.

***

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY MOST OF NEXT WEEK...WITH RAIN CHANCES
LIKELY RETURNING BY THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NEXT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM. FOR NOW...THE NAM AND GFS ARE IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
SYSTEM. BOTH MODELS DEEPEN AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS
NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND MOVE IT SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO WEST
TEXAS LATE SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. IF THIS PANS OUT...WE MAY SEE MORE
BENEFICIAL RAINS ACROSS THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND...BUT FOR NOW IT
IS STILL A LITTLE TOO SOON TO TELL FOR SURE.

[weatherdude1108]

NWS FW starting to take a little bite of the cake. A little change from their bleak outlook before.

***

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY MOST OF NEXT WEEK...WITH RAIN CHANCES
LIKELY RETURNING BY THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NEXT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM. FOR NOW...THE NAM AND GFS ARE IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
SYSTEM. BOTH MODELS DEEPEN AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS
NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND MOVE IT SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO WEST
TEXAS LATE SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. IF THIS PANS OUT...WE MAY SEE MORE
BENEFICIAL RAINS ACROSS THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND...BUT FOR NOW IT
IS STILL A LITTLE TOO SOON TO TELL FOR SURE.

That's encouraging! Beautiful today, but I was noticing how the humidity was back to 28% today at my place, even after all that widespread rain Monday and Tuesday. Doesn't take long to dry things out with this continental air mass. I am ready for more rain!

[Ntxw]

The good news is, advertised set up may bring some much needed rains to parched west Texas/panhandle before becoming a significant rain event in the eastern half of the state.

[Portastorm]

The good news is, advertised set up may bring some much needed rains to parched west Texas/panhandle before becoming a significant rain event in the eastern half of the state.

It appears that Memorial Day weekend may offer some weather "highlights" for us to track and follow!