2014 EPAC Season

[xtyphooncyclonex]

The ocean temperatures are very favorable right now, fueled by the pre-El Niño. However, a problem now is the very dry air. I am expecting at least a tropical depression, or maybe a tropical storm less than 55 kts and higher than 985 mb.

[Yellow Evan]

The ocean temperatures are very favorable right now, fueled by the pre-El Niño. However, a problem now is the very dry air. I am expecting at least a tropical depression, or maybe a tropical storm less than 55 kts and higher than 985 mb.

EPAC is mostly desert, since it has a lot of dry air. I also attribute it to the lack of MJO.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

The ocean temperatures are very favorable right now, fueled by the pre-El Niño. However, a problem now is the very dry air. I am expecting at least a tropical depression, or maybe a tropical storm less than 55 kts and higher than 985 mb.

EPAC is mostly desert, since it has a lot of dry air. I also attribute it to the lack of MJO.

The negative phase of the MJO is now at the EPAC and could strengthen. And yes there are deserts in California, Mexico and other US states like Nevada which are contributing to the dry air. Those places are very dry as of now, as parts of Cali are in a drought and there are several bushfires.

[hurricanes1234]

I think we may see a 50-70 mph tropical storm before May ends.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

The 12z ECMWF has a 956 millibar major hurricane next weekend FWIW.

[Kingarabian]

The 12z ECMWF has a 956 millibar major hurricane next weekend FWIW.

Considering that the European model does not like to show TD's, things just got serious.

[Yellow Evan]

The 12z ECMWF has a 956 millibar major hurricane next weekend FWIW.

Considering that the European model does not like to show TD's, things just got serious.

GFS brings it to only 992 mbar. Still, stay tuned. I can't recall the last time the Euro predicted an MH and nothing formed.

[Yellow Evan]

The ocean temperatures are very favorable right now, fueled by the pre-El Niño. However, a problem now is the very dry air. I am expecting at least a tropical depression, or maybe a tropical storm less than 55 kts and higher than 985 mb.

EPAC is mostly desert, since it has a lot of dry air. I also attribute it to the lack of MJO.

The negative phase of the MJO is now at the EPAC and could strengthen. And yes there are deserts in California, Mexico and other US states like Nevada which are contributing to the dry air. Those places are very dry as of now, as parts of Cali are in a drought and there are several bushfires.

Well, we have a late-season Gulf of Tehuantepec gale even going on right now, pretty much increases dry air. It should be subsiding in a few days per the TWD.

[Ntxw]

Well, we have a late-season Gulf of Tehuantepec gale even going on right now, pretty much increases dry air. It should be subsiding in a few days per the TWD.

Also Atmospheric Kelvin waves, convectively coupled. MJO is incohorent but these KW's are quite active. One is moving into the CPAC from the WPAC and eventually EPAC.

[hurricanes1234]

Is this the area the models are hinting on development?

[Yellow Evan]

Is this the area the models are hinting on development?

I think so.

[Kingarabian]

Vorticity:

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT THU MAY 15 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected over the next 48 hours.

Other systems with the potential to become a tropical cyclone beyond
48 hours...

An area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles
south of Mexico over the next day or so. Environmental conditions
should be conducive for gradual development to occur as the system
moves westward to west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[cycloneye]

Is this the area the models are hinting on development?

http://imageshack.us/a/img836/3741/ndhva.jpg

Yes,from that area.This mornings 10:05 UTC TWD.

THE GFS SUGGESTS GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE SURFACE
LOW PRESENTLY AT 09N101W...MOVING IT WESTWARD AT 10-15 KT AND
DEEPENING FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT FRI MAY 16 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Systems with the potential to become a tropical cycone during the
next 48 hours.

An area of disturbed weather has formed several hundred miles south
of Acapulco Mexico. Environmental conditions could become a little
more conducive for development during the next few days while the
system moves westward to west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Brown

[Yellow Evan]

6z GFs no longer shows this.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

The ECMWF has been focusing on the development of a system behind this one.

[hurricanes1234]

So according to the latest run, this area may bust but another one may form that isn't there yet?

[hurricanes1234]

So according to the latest run, this area may bust but another one may form that isn't there yet?

[cycloneye]

INVEST 91E is up