Caribbean - Central America Weather

[msbee]

We just had a VERY heavy thunderstorm with LOTS of rain, and it is still raining.
I went out in the rain to check my rain gauge. (I must be crazy to do that)
It had 4 inches of water in it.
Now I am wet and cold but I know how much rain fell.
That's a lot of rain in a couple of hours.

Barbara

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Another rainy day is expected in PR and VI today.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
544 AM AST SUN MAY 11 2014

...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE WHEN NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION DEVELOPS
IN SOUTHEAST FLOW...

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...THE CENTER OF A COLD CORE LOW WILL
DRIFT ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO AND PULL AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST
MONDAY...MAINTAINING A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. A WEAK WESTERLY JET
WILL CONTINUE SOUTH OF THE AREA AFTER THE LOW PULLS AWAY. TROUGHINESS
DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE THAT WILL MOVE
EAST AND INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY.

AT MID LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE OVER PUERTO RICO WILL MOVE TO JUST
SOUTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MONDAY AND THEN SLOWLY DIE AS IT
SPREADS OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES FROM HISPANIOLA WEST TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL RIDGE INTO THE CARIBBEAN
DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE LOCAL
CARIBBEAN WATERS TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AROUND THE LOW.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A WEAK TROUGH CROSSED THROUGH THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS OVERNIGHT AND THEN PUERTO RICO AROUND 4 AM AST THIS
MORNING. WIND FLOW IS NOW SOUTHEAST. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE WEST NORTHWEST BUT WILL THROW A SHIELD OF MOISTURE TO THE
NORTHWEST AHEAD OF IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
7 DAYS BUT WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS MOVED THROUGH PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT AS THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS CLEARED. WINDS SHIFTED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND A
NEW LINE OF CONVECTION FORMED FROM SALINAS SOUTHEAST. THESE
SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST PUERTO RICO. THE REST
OF PUERTO RICO IS NOW ALSO SEEING SOME CLEARING AND SOME BRIEF SUNSHINE
MAY BE SEEN EARLY THIS MORNING.

SO...ANOTHER COMPLEX AND UNUSUAL WEATHER PATTERN TODAY. A DEEP MID
AND UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES JUST WEST OF PUERTO RICO WITH MINUS
11 TO MINUS 12 DEGREES CELSIUS AT 500 MB. DRIER AIR HAS ALREADY
MOVED AROUND THIS LOW OVER THE CARIBBEAN SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO AND
INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF PUERTO RICO AND OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS. A SURFACE TROUGH HAS FINALLY PROGRESSED THROUGH PUERTO
RICO. THIS SAME TROUGH BROUGHT SHOWERS TO THE WINDWARD AND LEEWARD
ISLANDS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS AND WILL GENERATE STRONGER WINDS
OVER OUR ATLANTIC WATERS AS IT PASSES BY. THE SURFACE IS CURRENTLY
QUITE MOIST BUT STABLE. AS HEATING BEGINS THROUGH THE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RE-
DEVELOP. DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND
MOVE OVER VIEQUES AND FAJARDO THIS EVENING AROUND 12/00Z. WITH
CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE MOVING OVER THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST THIS IS EXPECTED TO KEEP CONVECTION GOING OVER THAT AREA
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW THIS COULD BRING
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL INTO THE AREA. THE GFS IS NOT IN TOTAL
AGREEMENT...HOWEVER IT IS ALSO NOT SHOWING A MOISTURE CONNECTION
FROM THE ABC ISLANDS TO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THAT IS VISIBLE IN
THE MIMIC IMAGERY. THEREFORE IN ORDER TO BE SAFE HAVE PLACED
SOUTHEAST PUERTO RICO AND ALL OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS UNDER A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH. CONDITIONS CONTINUE MOIST AT LOWER LEVELS AND
UNSTABLE THROUGH MONDAY AND THEREFORE HAVE EXTENDED THE WATCH
UNTIL LATE MONDAY EVENING. ALTHOUGH FLOW IS SOUTHEAST...AND
NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO IS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS
SHOULD INHIBIT PERSISTENT...STRONG AND WELL ORGANIZED CONVECTION
AND THEREFORE FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED IN THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD
OF PUERTO RICO. EVERYWHERE THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP EXPECT VERY
ACTIVE LIGHTNING DUE TO LOW TEMPERATURES AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE AND MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES RECOVER DURING THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK RETURNING THE AREA TO A MORE NORMAL
PATTERN OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN INTERIOR...WESTERN
AND NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
OVER EASTERN PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT AND IN THE EARLY MORNINGS. THE
GFS IS NO LONGER SHOWING VERY DRY CONDITIONS ANYTIME THIS
WEEK...BUT SHOWS FOUR SUCCESSIVE AND INCREASING PEAKS OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER. THE FIRST LATE THIS EVENING...THE SECOND
TUESDAY EVENING...THE THIRD THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THE FINAL PEAK
OF TWO INCHES NEXT SUNDAY EVENING. WOULD THEREFORE EXPECT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND...BUT
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PREVENT A WIDESPREAD EVENT OF VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW BEGINNING...TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BEGIN TO
WARM ON THE NORTH COAST. SHOULD CONSIDERABLE CLEARING OCCUR SOME
TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE TO BE REVISED UPWARD AND SAN JUAN MAY SEE A
FEW DAYS IN THE LOWER 90S...BUT FOR NOW HAVE GONE ONLY ONE OR TWO
DEGREES ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THRU
MID-MORNING EXCEPT FOR TKPK WHERE BRIEF MVFR WILL CONTINUE THRU THE
DAY. THEN DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED AGAIN
ACROSS THE AREA...AFFECTING THE LOCAL ISLANDS...TJSJ AND TJPS
STARTING AFTER 11/13Z WITH SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA CAUSING BRIEF MVFR/IFR
CONDS. TJMZ AND TJBQ WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE VCTS AFTER 11/16Z.
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AREA-WIDE AND SE LOW WIND FLOW AT 10-20 KTS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...MODELS HAVE BEEN UNDER-ESTIMATING SEAS SLIGHTLY WHERE
LIMITED BUOY DATA IS AVAILABLE. STRONGER WINDS AROUND THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE SURFACE TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE WINDS OVER
THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT AND BRING 6 AND 7
FOOT SEAS INTO THE AREA. WINDS ROSE TO OVER 24 KNOTS AT BUOY
42060 IN THE SOUTHEAST CARIBBEAN ON SATURDAY AND SEAS THERE ROSE
TO OVER 8.5 FEET DURING THIS EVENT. SOME OF THIS WAVE ACTION WILL
MAKE IT INTO OUR SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN WATERS WHERE SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION. CONDITIONS IMPROVE DURING THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...CONSIDERABLE FLOODING OF LOCAL DRAINAGES AND ROADWAYS
OCCURRED SATURDAY AND THE TERRAIN IS QUITE SATURATED. RAINFALL IN
LOCAL GAGES ON THE EASTERN FLANKS OF THE LUQUILLO RANGE SAW OVER
12 INCHES IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE WESTERN SIDE HAD 6.5 TO OVER 9
INCHES OF RAIN. SOUTHEAST PUERTO RICO ALSO SAW CONSIDERABLE
RAINFALL. SHOULD CONVECTION FORM LINES THAT TRAIN INTO
SOUTHEASTERN PUERTO RICO...RAPID FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS AND
ROADWAYS COULD OCCUR. ALSO HIGH MOUNTAIN RIDGES ACROSS SOUTHERN
PUERTO RICO AND NORTH OF PONCE COULD BE IN DIRECT LINE WITH
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION TODAY AND TONIGHT SHOULD AREAS OF
THUNDERSTORMS FORM AS EXPECTED. THEREFORE HAVE PLACED THE WINDWARD
SIDE OF PUERTO RICO UNDER A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. THE GFS SHOWS THE
BEST DIVERGENCE ALOFT BETWEEN PUERTO RICO AND SAINT THOMAS AND
SAINT CROIX. THIS WOULD FAVOR BETTER DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS THERE
AS WELL. THEREFORE ALL OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WAS ALSO PLACED
UNDER A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. MUDSLIDES AND DEBRIS FLOWS COULD OCCUR
IN ISOLATED PLACES UNDER THE HEAVIEST RAINS TODAY OR TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 82 73 84 75 / 70 60 50 60
STT 82 75 83 77 / 80 80 50 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
309 PM AST SUN MAY 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS... MID TO UPPER TROUGH THAT IS CAUSING THE INSTABILITY
AND THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA HAS MOVED JUST TO
THE SW OF PR BUT LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT IT MOVED
SLIGHTLY NORTH IN THE PAST FEW HOURS. IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE LOW
PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN TOMORROW AS IT DRIFTS TO THE NORTH.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. FOR MONDAY...AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PR.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN PR
AND THE USVI...DUE TO EXPECTED RAIN AND SATURATED SOILS OVER THE AREA.

THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LOW WERE SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER TODAY. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
REMAINED OVER WATER WITH THE USVI RECEIVING SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER PUERTO RICO HAS
OBSERVED LITTLE RAIN. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE
UPPER LOW HAS MOVED TO THE NORTH SLIGHTLY...WHICH IS IN ALIGNMENT
WITH WHAT THE GFS MODEL WAS SUGGESTING. THIS MEANS THAT IF THE GFS
MODEL IS CORRECT...THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWARD AS IT
WEAKENS...THIS HOWEVER DOES NOT MEAN THAT WE WILL BE WITHOUT
SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND/OR FLOODING. SATURATED SOILS ACROSS EASTERN
PR AS WELL AS THE USVI MEANS THAT FLOODING CAN OCCUR WITH ANY
SIGNIFICANT SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. LATEST GUIDANCE STILL
SUGGESTS SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN PR AND THE USVI THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH PORTIONS OF WESTERN PR RECEIVING RAIN ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

AFTER MONDAY...A MORE TYPICAL PATTERN SEEMS TO TAKE PLACE WITH
EASTERLY WINDS PREVAILING AND LOCAL EFFECTS CAUSING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOONS WITH PASSING SHOWERS IN THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA ACROSS ISX/IST THIS AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY
OVERNIGHT CAUSING BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. SHRA ACTIVITY ALSO
EXPECTED IN AND AROUND THE TERMINALS IN PR THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
MAY ALSO CAUSE BRIEF MVFR CONDS. CLOUDINESS WILL CAUSE MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS. WINDS WILL BE PREVAILING FROM THE SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON...VARIABLE NEAR SHOWERS...RETURNING TO EASTERLY WINDS BY
12/12Z.


&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
OFFSHORE WATERS STARTING THIS EVENING AS SEAS UP TO 7 FEET ARE
EXPECTED. SEAS UP TO 6 FEET ELSEWHERE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 87 75 88 / 60 50 60 40
STT 76 86 76 87 / 80 50 40 40

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Still some rain is expected today for PR and VI.



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
533 AM AST MON MAY 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER MONA PASSAGE/WESTERN PUERTO
RICO THIS MORNING WILL FILL DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...
UNSTABLE WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING. THEN...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL DECREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS GIVING THE WAY TO TYPICAL SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN PR EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE TAPERED OFF ACROSS THE
ISLANDS SINCE MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORMS WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING
HAVE PERSISTED ALL NIGHT ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS. AT THIS
TIME...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MONA PASSAGE.
ALTHOUGH...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT...IT
IS STILL CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE ISLANDS TO KEEP AIR MASS UNSTABLE
TODAY. AMPLE MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS ADVECTING
ACROSS THE REGION...AS AN INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS WEST OF
THE ISLANDS. AS A RESULT...THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLOODING CONTINUE UNDER THE WET CONDITIONS...THUS FLASH FLOOD
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE
A LITTLE LATER TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WEAKENS AND MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA.

LOOKING AHEAD...WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AS MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
AND HEIGHTS RECOVER FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A MORE TYPICAL PATTERN WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER
THE INTERIOR...WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO EACH AFTERNOON.
PASSING LIGHT SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN PUERTO RICO
OVERNIGHT AND IN THE MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME VCSH. LATE MRNG AND AFT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA...AFFECTING THE LOCAL ISLANDS WITH VCSH...SHRA AND
AN ISLD TSRA...CAUSING BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDS. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
AREA-WIDE AND WIND SE 12-25 KT BLO FL150 BCMG E LATE MON INTO MON
NITE.


&&

.MARINE...WINDS OF 15-20 KT AND SEAS OF 4-6 FEET EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 75 87 75 / 50 50 30 40
STT 86 77 87 78 / 60 50 30 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
320 PM AST MON MAY 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOW EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND MONA PASSAGE.
THIS IS HELPING TO CREATE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS ALOFT. IN THE LOW LEVELS IT IS SUPPORTED BY AN INDUCED
LOW LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS NOW OVER EASTERN CUBA AND THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD INFLUX OF
LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE BEING STEERED ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
PREVAILING SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INITIALIZED
WELL AND STILL SUGGESTS THAT THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TO FILL OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS IT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH NORTHWEST
OF THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT...
HOWEVER DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY...IT WILL HELP TO PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
VENTILATION AND THEREFORE MAINTAIN UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AT LEAST
UNTIL TUESDAY. AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE
PREVAILING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BE TRANSPORTED ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS AND LOCAL ISLANDS...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED INDUCED
SURFACE TROUGH PULLS FURTHER WEST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. AS A RESULT...THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL AND MOSTLY MINOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE UNDER THE
MOIST AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL QUICKLY
REACT AND MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING IN SOME AREAS DURING THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THEREFORE ...THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT AT LEAST UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING.
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER LAND WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE AS THE UPPER TROUGH PULLS AWAY AND WEAKENS.

BY MID WEEK AND DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST . THIS WILL
ALLOW MUCH MORE STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT...AND THE STRENGTHENING
OF THE LOW LEVEL TRADE WIND CAP INVERSION AS THE SURFACE TROUGH
PULLS FURTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION...WINDS BECOME MORE EASTERLY BY
THE END OF THE WEEK. BASED ON LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWER
ACTIVITY AND TROPICAL MOISTURE INFLUX SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE
WITH LESSER POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION BY THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. HOWEVER...WOULD STILL EXPECT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
TO COMBINE WITH LOCAL AND DIURNAL EFFECTS FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION
EACH DAY. THIS WILL INCLUDE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BUT THEY SHOULD
BE FOCUSED MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO. CLOUD FORMATION AN THE STEERING OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION
WILL THEN BE MORE DEPENDENT ON THE PREVAILING LOW LEVEL STEERING
FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.
VCTS LIKELY ACROSS TJBQ/TJMZ AFTER 12/17Z WITH POSSIBLE BRIEF TSRA.
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL KEEP THE LOCAL TERMINALS WITH AT LEAST
SOME RAIN AND WITH MTN OBSCURATIONS ACROSS PR WITH AT LEAST VCSH ACROSS
THE LOCAL TERMINALS. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT WITH PASSING SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL
WATERS DUE TO SEAS OF UP TO 6 FEET AND WINDS OF UP TO 19 KNOTS. PLEASE
REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE WFO SAN JUAN OFFICE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 86 76 87 / 50 30 40 40
STT 76 88 77 87 / 50 30 40 40

[msbee]

Heavy rain again for St Maarten this afternoon. My gauge measured 2 inches and it looks like more to come overnight.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Good weather is expected for today in PR and VI with only a few showers.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
514 AM AST TUE MAY 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST NORTH OF THE REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
LESSER ANTILLES WILL EXPAND WESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPROVE AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELITE IMAGERY INDICATED LINGERING CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. RADAR OBSERVATIONS SHOWED
LIGHT SHOWERS AFFECTING THE USVI AND EASTERN PR EARLY DURING
OVERNIGHT HOURS WHILE EARLY THIS MORNING ONLY A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.

WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DISSIPATES AND THE CORRESPONDING MID-LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES WESTWARD ACROSS DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/BAHAMAS. THE MID-
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE REPLACED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL
BUILD OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. THIS
MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL HELP TO ERODE THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND ALSO
STRENGTHEN THE TRADE WIND INVERSION ACROSS THE AREA. UNDER THIS
EVOLVING PATTERN THUNDERSTORM WILL DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY IN COVERAGE
AND IN FREQUENCY. HOWEVER...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR DIURNAL
HEATING AND SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO...WHICH
WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN
PUERTO RICO EACH AFTERNOON. OVERALL...EXPECT A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN
PREVAILING ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT SHRA CONTINUES WITH VCSH AT FEW SITES...DECREASING
LATER THIS MRNG ACRS REGION. AS DAY PROGRESSES...SHRA/SCT TSRA THIS
AFT OVR WEST PR WI OBSCD MTNS BUT ISOLD SHRA ELSEWHERE. WND LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THIS MRNG...BCMNG ESE 12-25 KT BY LTR TDY.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE
LOCAL WATERS DUE TO SEAS OF 4-6 FEET AND WINDS OF 15-20 KNOTS. SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO 3-5 FEET LATE IN THE WEEK. THEN...WAVE MODELS
ARE SUGGESTING A MODERATE NORTHEAST SWELL OF 4-5 FEET AFFECTING THE
LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 75 87 76 / 30 30 30 30
STT 86 76 87 78 / 30 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
250 PM AST TUE MAY 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAKENING MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUED TO PULL WEST AND NORTH
OF THE AREA WITH AXIS NOW OVER HISPANIOLA. THIS WILL NOW PLACE THE
REGION IN AN AREA OF INCREASING UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE DURING THE
REST OF THE WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN. MEANWHILE...IN THE LOW
LEVELS HIGH PRESSURE IS TO BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA TO INCREASE THE
PREVAILING EASTERLY WIND FLOW...AS THE INDUCED SURFACE WHICH
AFFECTED THE AREA IN RECENT DAYS HAS WEAKEN AND MOVE AWAY. LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED PATCHES OF SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEING
TRANSPORTED WESTWARD IN THE PREVAILING EASTERLIES. MODEL GUIDANCE
INITIALIZED WELL AND CONTINUED TO SUGGEST FILLING OF MID TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH NORTHWEST OF
THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
OVERALL WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS THE TROUGH ALOFT LIFT NORTH AND DISSIPATES. THEREAFTER
THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO AID IN ERODING THE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS THE REGION...WHILE STRENGTHENING THE
TRADE WIND INVERSION ACROSS THE AREA. THEREFORE...GENERAL FORECAST
STILL ON TRACK FOR DECREASING EARLY MORNING AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION
ACROSS THE ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SUFFICIENT SUNSHINE
DURING THE MORNING HOURS WILL ALLOW FOR DIURNAL HEATING AND SEA
BREEZE CONVERGENCE LEADING TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY ACROSS
WESTERN PUERTO RICO. LOCAL AND DIURNAL EFFECTS WILL BE SUFFICIENT
TO TRIGGER PERIODS OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION MAINLY
ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO EACH AFTERNOON. THE REST OF THE ISLANDS
MAY EXPERIENCE A FEW PASSING SHOWERS IN ISOLATED SPOTS EACH DAY
BUT NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURE IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS AFTER
THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER NW PR. SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY OVER NW PR
IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY 13/23Z BUT VCSH MAY REMAIN INTO THE
EVENING. WINDS WILL PREVAIL FROM THE EAST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS OR LESS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH ONLY A FEW PASSING ISOLD SHRA.
SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT ONCE AGAIN AFTER 14/16Z OVER NW PR...POSSIBLY
AFFECTING TJMZ AND TJBQ.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION DUE TO SEAS OF UP TO
6 FEET AND WINDS OF 19 KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 86 76 87 / 30 30 30 30
STT 76 87 78 87 / 30 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

Good morning. A few showers will move thru PR today but for the most part it will be with good sunshine.

AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
555 AM AST WED MAY 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD INTO THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...RESULTING IN A GRADUAL
EROSION OF THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE. BROAD TROUGH/LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING THE WEEKEND...INDUCING AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHINESS OVER THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN BY FRIDAY. IN GENERAL...
EXPECT A TYPICAL WEATHER PATTERN WITH MORNING SHOWERS AFFECTING THE
WINDWARD SIDE OF THE ISLANDS AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN PR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...BRISK EASTERLY WINDS HAVE PUSHED TRADE WIND SHOWERS
ACROSS THE USVI...CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND THE EASTERN THIRD OF PR
SINCE MIDNIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS
UPSTREAM OF THE FORECAST AREA DRIFTING WEST AT 15-20 KT. MUCH OF THE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE WINDWARD AREAS OF PUERTO RICO AS
WELL AS PORTIONS OF CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH
AT LEAST MID-MORNING. THEN...LINGERING MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH
LOCAL EFFECTS WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF PR THIS AFTERNOON.

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE
AREA WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT TO THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY WITH WINDS
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LITTLE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL ALLOW THE DIURNAL CYCLES TO PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LATE IN THE WEEK...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC INDUCING
A WEAK TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN REGION. THIS FEATURE
ALOFT COULD ENHANCE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ISLANDS FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...LOOKS LIKE BEST DYNAMICS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN NORTH
OF 20N. SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE MODEL SOLUTIONS TO SEE
HOW THIS PATTERN UNFOLDS.


&&

.AVIATION...SCT-BKN CLD LYRS MAINLY BTW FL020-FL080 WILL QUICKLY
MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA BTW PR AND NRN LEEWARDS. FEW TCU
W/EMBEDDED SHRA ALSO EN ROUTE BTW ISLANDS BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
CIRCUMNAVIGABLE. LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW FM E AT 10-20 KNOTS BLO FL100
THEN BCMG S AND SW ABV WITH MAX WND OF AROUND 60 KTS NR FL450. FEW
ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS REMAIN PSBL IN AND AROUND TJSJ/TIST/TISX
AND TNCM/TKPK. MTN TOP OBSR ALSO PSBL DUE TO LOW SCUD CLDS AND SHRA.
ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT ONCE AGAIN AFTER 14/18Z-14/22Z MAINLY
OVER W AND NW PR...TO AFFECT TJBQ WITH BRIEF MVFR AND PSBL TSTM.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS OF 15-20 KT AND SEAS OF 4-6 FT ARE EXPECTED TODAY.
THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF
THE LOCAL WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. WAVE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A NORTHEAST SWELL
OF 6-7 FEET AT 12-13 SEC AFFECTING THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND
CARIBBEAN PASSAGES ON SUNDAY. IF THIS VERIFIES...A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR AMZ710.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 75 87 75 / 40 30 30 30
STT 86 76 86 77 / 40 30 30 30

[Macrocane]

Good morning!

The rainy season is starting in most of Central America and the temperatures are getting cooler than in the previous 2 months, but an unusual cold front (typical of the dry season) is approaching the region and northerly winds behind it will start to blow in 24-48 hours. It will be one of the latest of such events on record:

.GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...

A COLD FRONT OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR
SW GULF OF MEXICO TODAY. WINDS WILL FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA
PASS WITH WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR GALE FORCE OVER THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC THIS AFTERNOON AND FURTHER INCREASING TO GALE FORCE
BY THIS EVENING. THIS LATE-SEASON GALE FORCE GAP WIND EVENT WILL
BE ONE OF THE LATEST GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALES ON RECORD. THIS
WILL BE A STRONG GALE EVENT WITH WINDS REACHING NEAR 45 KT LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY THU. WINDS SHOULD FINALLY DIMINISH BELOW GALE
FORCE SATURDAY MORNING.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
253 PM AST WED MAY 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...THE AXIS OF A BROAD TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH
THE LOCAL AREA ON THURSDAY AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF
A FLATTENING RIDGE ON SUNDAY MORNING. A JET WILL APPROACH THE AREA
LATE NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF ANOTHER LONG WAVE.

AT MID LEVELS..HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC BY A TROUGH
THAT DIGS SOUTHWEST INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE EXTREME EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH
TROUGHINESS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST WILL MAINTAIN
MODERATE TO GENTLE TRADE WINDS THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. LOWER LEVELS WILL COOL
SOMEWHAT THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AND ANOTHER SCATTERED TO BROKEN
MID CLOUD LAYER KEPT STABILITY UP AND ONLY A FEW LOW TOPPED
SHOWERS DEVELOPED OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY. A LARGE SWATH OF
SCATTERED LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS CAN BE SEEN RIDING ON THE TRADE
WINDS TO CONTINUE THIS PATTERN THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS KEEPING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND LIMITED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING SCATTERED
SHOWERS ON THE WINDWARD SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO AND OVER AND AROUND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE TROUGH APPROACHING THE AREA AND
PASSING ON THURSDAY NIGHT WILL ENHANCE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
SOMEWHAT. THE NEXT CHANGE IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WHEN PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES TO BETWEEN 1.9 AND 2.0
INCHES. THIS CHANGE IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE OF A QUANTITATIVE
CHANGE RATHER THAN A CHANGE IN THE CHARACTER OF THE WEATHER TO BE
SEEN DURING THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS. TEMPERATURES COOL SOMEWHAT
BETWEEN NOW AND SATURDAY...BUT WARM EARLY NEXT WEEK TO A LITTLE
WARMER THAN TODAY DUE TO THE ONSET OF SOUTHEAST FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT TO LCLY BKN CLD LYRS BTW FL020-FL080 WILL SLOWLY DECREASE.
FEW EMBEDDED QUICK SHRA WILL ALSO AFFECT THE VICINITY OF TJSJ.
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TNCM...TKPK...TIST...TISX AND
TJPS. WILL EXPECT ISOLD TSTMS TO AFFECT TJBQ AND SO INDICATED A
TEMPO GROUP WITH TSTMS/BKN CEILINGS/VARIABLE GUSTY WINDS FROM
18-21Z. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER 23Z AT ALL
TERMINALS...BUT MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE LIKELY
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE LUQUILLO RANGE.


&&

.MARINE...WIND AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
GENERALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 87 75 86 / 30 40 40 40
STT 76 87 76 86 / 40 40 30 30

[HurricaneFan]

Is the Front,mentioned in the forecast,still coming on Sunday?I am not hearing it mentioned in the forecast anymore about reaching the NE Caribbean.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Good weather will prevail today in PR and VI with only a few showers.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
514 AM AST THU MAY 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATIONS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
LOCAL REGION TODAY AND FRIDAY. THESE WEAK SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS WILL
WEAKEN THE CAP INVERSION ALLOWING THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EACH
AFTERNOON. THEN...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA
SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...EASTERLY TRADE WINDS HAVE TRANSPORTED PATCHES OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS...U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND THE EASTERN PUERTO RICO SINCE MIDNIGHT.
THESE LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE MOVED FAIRLY QUICKLY ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS LEAVING ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOW ADDITIONAL PATCHES OF CLOUDS UPSTREAM OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS THAT MAY REACH THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.

LOOPS OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEAL A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH OVER HISPANOLA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS DISTURBANCE ALOFT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATER TODAY...
PROVIDING ENOUGH SYNOPTIC FORCING TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...MOISTURE
OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...
SO THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE MAINLY FOCUSED OVER THE WESTERN
INTERIOR AND WEST SECTION OF PUERTO RICO. GFS ENSEMBLE AND THE ECMWF
INDICATED AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING JUST NORTH OF THE AREA FROM
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. IF THIS SOLUTION VERIFIES...EXPECT MAINLY
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS THE ISLANDS DURING THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDS FCST FOR ALL TAF SITES DURG THE PRD.
HOWEVER AT LEAST TIL 15/14Z...EXPECT EARLY MORNING LGT-MDT PASSING
TRADE WND SHRA AND LOW TO MID LVL CLDS BTW FL020-FL100 TO AFFECT
PARTS OF THE ISLANDS AND LOCAL WATERS BTW ERN PR AND NRN LEEWARDS.
MTN TOP OBSC PSBL OVR ERN PR DUE TO SCT-BKN ST/CUFRA CLDS
ACCOMPANYING SHRA. FM 15/17Z-15/22Z MVFR CONDS REMAIN PSBL WITH SOME
SHRA AND ISOLD TSTM DEVELOPMENT MAIN IN AND AROUND TJMZ AND TJBQ.
ELSEWHERE MAINLY VFR AND NO OTHER SIG OPERATIONAL WX IMPACTS AT THIS
TIME. LLVL WINDS ARE GENERALLY EAST BETWEEN 10 AND 20 KNOTS BELOW
FL100.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS OF 13-18 KT AND SEAS OF 3-5 FT ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WAVE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A MODERATE NORTHEAST
SWELL OF 4-6 FEET AT 12-13 SEC AFFECTING THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS
AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 75 85 75 / 20 30 30 30
STT 86 76 86 77 / 10 20 20 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
251 PM AST THU MAY 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THIS
EVENING ACCOMPANIED BY A 65 KNOT JET. A WEAKENING RIDGE PASSAGE
WILL FOLLOW EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE APPROACH OF A TROUGH LATER
NEXT WEEK WILL BRING INCREASING CONVECTION.

AT MID LEVELS...A WEAK TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM A LOW PRESSURE IN
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AS THE LOW MOVES TOWARD THE WEST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL
SHIFT SLIGHTLY NORTH AS TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN DURING THE WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...THE TRADE WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND TURN MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY OVER THE WEEKEND. AT THE SAME TIME A TROUGH WILL
FORM NORTH OF HISPANIOLA AS THE HIGH RETREATS TO THE NORTH
NORTHEAST. THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN WEAK AND MOVE TO NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE TRADE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AGAIN LATE NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVED OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN WATERS
EAST OF PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING AND CONTINUED INTO WESTERN PUERTO
RICO DURING THE AFTERNOON. A STREAMER DEVELOPED WEST OF SAINT
CROIX. CONVECTION WAS VERY LIMITED. ALTHOUGH ONE TOP WAS NOTED
OVER THE WEST END OF ANASCO...PREMA DID NOT REPORT ANY THUNDER
WITH THIS. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS SUNSET APPROACHES.
THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL JET AND THE TROUGH PASSAGE SHOULD AID A
NEW ROUND OF SHOWERS FOR EASTERN PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT. THEN
DIMINISHING WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR BETTER CONVECTION...EVEN THOUGH
OVERALL MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIR COLUMN OVER THE AREA WILL
DECREASE SOMEWHAT. EXPECT MOST OF THE SHOWERS TO FORM OVER THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL IN WESTERN PUERTO RICO FIRST ON FRIDAY AND THEN
SPREAD OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE ISLAND. ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES
OF A SHOWER ARE GOOD...AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT BE PARTICULARLY HEAVY.
SATURDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY. BY SUNDAY THE SHIFTING PATTERN
OF WINDS TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST AT THE SURFACE WILL
CAUSE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO FORM MORE IN THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE
ISLAND. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
IT WOULD BE EXPECTED THAT MORE FAVORABLE DYNAMICS DURING THE
LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL OVERCOME THE DECLINE IN OVERALL
MOISTURE AND WILL WATCH FOR STRONGER...THOUGH LESS
WIDESPREAD...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THEN.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT SHRA DVLPG ACRS MUCH OF PR BUT WL FOCUS MORE ON WEST
AS AFT PROGRESSES WI FEW OBSCD MTNS...ISOLD TSRA POSBL OVR WEST PR.
STREAMERS WWD FROM ISLANDS WL ALSO PRODUCE SHRA...MIGHT ALSO PUT FEW
SHRA NR TJSJ TIL SUNSET. ISOLD/SCT SHRA TONIGHT AND POSBL TSRA OVR
PR FRI AFT. WIND BLO FL100 E 12-22 KT BCMG 12 KT OR LESS FRI.


&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WITH ALL AREAS
BELOW CAUTIONARY CRITERIA BY FRIDAY MORNING. SOME 11 SECOND SWELL
EXPECTED SUNDAY AND BUILDING INTO TUESDAY TO 4 TO 5 FEET FROM
CUT-OFF LOW IN CENTRAL ATLANTIC...AFTER WHICH SEAS WILL DROP TO
AROUND 3 FEET IN OUTER ATLANTIC WATERS AND 3 TO 4 FEET IN THE
CARIBBEAN.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 85 75 86 / 40 40 30 30
STT 76 86 77 85 / 30 30 40 40

&&

[cycloneye]

Good morning. In general good weather will prevail today in pR and VI with only a few showers moving thru.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
503 AM AST FRI MAY 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA FROM THE WEST...AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN MOVES EAST. DEEPER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL ESTABLISH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS OVERNIGHT WITH ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS
OBSERVED OVER WATERS AS WELL AS EASTERN PUERTO RICO. TEMPERATURES
WERE IN THE UPPER 70S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH EASTERLY WINDS AT
10 KNOTS OR LESS.

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS WITH SHOWERS
EAST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST...
KEEPING A HIGH RISK OF PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS THIS
MORNING. OVERALL...AFTERNOON CONVECTION SHOULD BE LIMITED AS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST LATE THIS MORNING WITH A DRYING TREND AND
ITS CONVERGENT SIDE OVER THE AREA.

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY...
BUT FLATTENING BY MONDAY AS DEEPER UPPER LEVEL THROUGH ESTABLISHES
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THEREFORE...FOR THE WEEKEND EXPECT
THE TYPICAL WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE SEASON WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND DIURNALLY INDUCE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND WEST PUERTO RICO. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE AS RIDGE FLATTENS AND MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...
GUIDANCE INDICATES MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED WX WITH UPPER TROUGH
WILL REMAIN NORTH OF 20N.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLD SHOWERS THIS MORNING HOURS ACROSS LOCAL ISLANDS
AND TJSJ. SHRA POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF PR AFTER 16/16Z BUT WL FOCUS
MORE ON WEST AND SOUTHWEST AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES WI FEW OBSCD
MTNS...ISOLD TSRA POSSIBLE OVR WEST PR. WIND BLO FL100 E 10-15 KT.

&&

.MARINE...NORTHEAST SWELLS EXPECTED TO REACH THE AREA SUN AND
CONTINUE THRU TUE. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THRU EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 74 84 74 / 10 30 30 30
STT 86 77 86 77 / 10 30 30 40

[Gustywind]

An earthquake 6.0 has occured in Guadeloupe this morning at 6AM.
No report of damages or fatalities, but a small alert have been activated for tsunami for those wo lived near the coast. Whereas, only small waves could occur ( given the latest news from the journalists) but for now i don't have more infos about that. Moreover looks like Martinica fell it too. Anyway, i follow closely the situation if anything happens...

Regards

Gustywind

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/ ... lq#summary

[msbee]

I was just reading about it Gusty. Amy reports of damage?

[Gustywind]

Barbara go on this thread to have more details: viewtopic.php?f=3&t=116325

Looks like no damages have been reported, thanksfully Whereas, looks like Guadeloupe area and the Lesser Antilles are more more concerned by these skakes. Something to keep an eye as usual...

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
249 PM AST FRI MAY 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN PR...
TYPICAL FOR MAY ALONG WITH A SEASONAL MOISTURE LEVEL. THEY MIGHT
GET ISOLATED THUNDER TOO. UPPER RIDGE IS NOSING IN AND EXPECT NO
JET DYNAMIC TO HELP THIS OR ANY OTHER CONVECTION THROUGH SUNDAY.
BUT THE RIDGE WILL NOT PRODUCE A CAPPING INVERSION TO PREVENT
ACTIVITY EITHER SO TYPICAL DIURNAL SHOWERS/THUNDER EXPECTED
WESTERN PR...ISOLATED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE PR/USVI. AS THE RIDGE
FLATTENS THE JET POTENTIALLY BECOMES A FACTOR BEGINNING MON WHILE
PRECIPITABLE WATER RISES TO NEAR 2 INCHES ACCORDING TO GFS...AND
TUE IS WHEN THE NORTHERN REACH OF THE MOIST PLUME FROM THE
TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY NEAR 40W ARRIVES HERE. MOST POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT RAIN APPEARS TO BE MON BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS THAT DAY
SUGGEST MULTIPLE CLOUD LAYERS SO HAVE IMPLIED LIKELY SHOWERS
NORTHWEST QUARTER OF PR.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA DVLG ACRS WESTERN PR WITH FEW OBSCD MTNS AND ISOLD
TSRA NEAR TJMZ THRU 21Z. ISOLD/SCT SHRA TONIGHT AND SAT MORNING OVR
EASTERN PR POSBL. WIND MAINLY E 10-20 KT BELOW FL100.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY MODERATE TRADE WINDS EXPECTED WELL INTO NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA WEAKENS AND RELAXES
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. HOWEVER A STRONG AND PERSISTENT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC WILL PUSH A SWELL
TRAIN UP TO 6 FT TO NORTH SHORES AND PASSAGES...PEAKING MON/MON NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 84 75 85 / 30 30 30 30
STT 76 86 75 85 / 30 30 40 40

[Gustywind]

For those who want to have more infos about the strong quake who have occured in Guadeloupe today, go and click on this link: viewtopic.php?f=67&t=107389&p=2381328#p2381328