2014 hurricane season forecasts

[blp]

here is an interesting story.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/weather/2 ... a/9000343/

shows really well the incredible 9 year long east coast trof. everything im seeing this year indicates the exact same thing with a stron neg NAO, powerful azores high and once a again a bermuda high nowhere to be found. i cant see how some people are concerned about in close developments.

Troughs alone don't make landfall less likely it is where a system forms and tracks in relation to that trough. With the MDR projected to be hostile a trough pattern might actually be a bad thing if you get development in NW carribean or Gulf or deep in the southern Carribean.

[gigabite]

Sarahan Air Layer Poster offers some insight on the 2011 hurricane season.

[ninel conde]

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/stat ... 92/photo/1

another model showing a likely dead august.

[Ntxw]

May seasonal forecast from the ECMWF. It's been pretty steady the past 3-4 months on above average heights. Also shows below normal rainfall (dry conditions) in the Caribbean and parts of the tropical Atlantic

[Cyclenall]

May seasonal forecast from the ECMWF. It's been pretty steady the past 3-4 months on above average heights. Also shows below normal rainfall (dry conditions) in the Caribbean and parts of the tropical Atlantic

http://i61.tinypic.com/2dspqb4.gif

That's even worse than what the Euro was showing for last year's hurricane season. I think I'll go ahead and root for a 0/0/0 season because I wonder if such an awful set of parameters will come up again for the Atlantic.

[ninel conde]

May seasonal forecast from the ECMWF. It's been pretty steady the past 3-4 months on above average heights. Also shows below normal rainfall (dry conditions) in the Caribbean and parts of the tropical Atlantic

http://i61.tinypic.com/2dspqb4.gif

That's even worse than what the Euro was showing for last year's hurricane season. I think I'll go ahead and root for a 0/0/0 season because I wonder if such an awful set of parameters will come up again for the Atlantic.

every single factor is negative

[TheStormExpert]

IMO the 1948 Atlantic Hurricane Season could be used as an possible analog season for this year. Just minus a few of the intense storms and hurricanes and overall track this seems possible.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1948_Atlantic_hurricane_season

[hurricaneCW]

It still only takes one storm to make a season, we could literally have only 1 storm this entire season but if the storm is a Category 3-5 monster that impacts us then that doesn't matter. It looks like the most favorable spot for development will easily be in the subtropics and potentially right off the SE or east coast.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

here is an interesting story.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/weather/2 ... a/9000343/

shows really well the incredible 9 year long east coast trof. everything im seeing this year indicates the exact same thing with a stron neg NAO, powerful azores high and once a again a bermuda high nowhere to be found. i cant see how some people are concerned about in close developments.

Troughs alone don't make landfall less likely it is where a system forms and tracks in relation to that trough. With the MDR projected to be hostile a trough pattern might actually be a bad thing if you get development in NW carribean or Gulf or deep in the southern Carribean.

But it does create hostile conditions and that is what he is implying. The gulf and Caribbean were dudes last season because of the persistent trough producing howling shear and unfavorable conditions all season long and therefore nothing developed close in. And its looking like a carbon copy set up again for this season as well.

[ninel conde]

here is an interesting story.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/weather/2 ... a/9000343/

shows really well the incredible 9 year long east coast trof. everything im seeing this year indicates the exact same thing with a stron neg NAO, powerful azores high and once a again a bermuda high nowhere to be found. i cant see how some people are concerned about in close developments.

Troughs alone don't make landfall less likely it is where a system forms and tracks in relation to that trough. With the MDR projected to be hostile a trough pattern might actually be a bad thing if you get development in NW carribean or Gulf or deep in the southern Carribean.

But it does create hostile conditions and that is what he is implying. The gulf and Caribbean were dudes last season because of the persistent trough producing howling shear and unfavorable conditions all season long and therefore nothing developed close in. And its looking like a carbon copy set up again for this season as well.

i agree.

[Riptide]

Here is an interesting study, it seems we can expect the MDR to become less active in coming years.
http://www.climatecentral.org/news/warm ... acts-17437

Two of those environmental factors that are particularly key to fueling hurricanes are wind shear — differences in the speed and direction of the wind at different heights in the atmosphere — and potential intensity, or the theoretical peak that the atmospheric environment will let a storm reach if all other factors are perfect for formation or intensification.

The study found that potential intensity was decreasing in the traditional tropics and increasing at higher latitudes, overall, while wind shear was undergoing an opposite shift in each region. That setup would be expected to lead to the shift away from the tropics that Kossin and his colleagues have observed.

[cycloneye]

Here is an interesting study, it seems we can expect the MDR to become less active in coming years.
http://www.climatecentral.org/news/warm ... acts-17437

Two of those environmental factors that are particularly key to fueling hurricanes are wind shear — differences in the speed and direction of the wind at different heights in the atmosphere — and potential intensity, or the theoretical peak that the atmospheric environment will let a storm reach if all other factors are perfect for formation or intensification.

The study found that potential intensity was decreasing in the traditional tropics and increasing at higher latitudes, overall, while wind shear was undergoing an opposite shift in each region. That setup would be expected to lead to the shift away from the tropics that Kossin and his colleagues have observed.

To let you know that there is a thread that is for this topic.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=116322&p=2381191#p2381191

[blp]

IMO the 1948 Atlantic Hurricane Season could be used as an possible analog season for this year. Just minus a few of the intense storms and hurricanes and overall track this seems possible.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1948_Atlantic_hurricane_season

That looks like a nice analog. I wish we knew what the ENSO signal was. 1950 was la Nina so maybee we had an El Nino in 48.

[blp]

here is an interesting story.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/weather/2 ... a/9000343/

shows really well the incredible 9 year long east coast trof. everything im seeing this year indicates the exact same thing with a stron neg NAO, powerful azores high and once a again a bermuda high nowhere to be found. i cant see how some people are concerned about in close developments.

Troughs alone don't make landfall less likely it is where a system forms and tracks in relation to that trough. With the MDR projected to be hostile a trough pattern might actually be a bad thing if you get development in NW carribean or Gulf or deep in the southern Carribean.

But it does create hostile conditions and that is what he is implying. The gulf and Caribbean were dudes last season because of the persistent trough producing howling shear and unfavorable conditions all season long and therefore nothing developed close in. And its looking like a carbon copy set up again for this season as well.

Well if he was implying that then it does not jive with the article he cited which does not connect the persistent trough to more hostile conditions. Klotzbach mentions only that the persistent trough aided in steering systems away from the mainland. Yes troughs can create shear but they can also help a system with outflow and help create storms on the tail end of the trough especially in the gulf.

[TheStormExpert]

IMO the 1948 Atlantic Hurricane Season could be used as an possible analog season for this year. Just minus a few of the intense storms and hurricanes and overall track this seems possible.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1948_Atlantic_hurricane_season

That looks like a nice analog. I wish we knew what the ENSO signal was. 1950 was la Nina so maybee we had an El Nino in 48.

http://www.skagitriverhistory.com/PDFs/elnino%20vs%20lanina%20years.pdf
Found this graph in PDF format which states the El Niño, La Niña, and Nuetral (Normal) years relating to flood events from 1900-2004.

Notice how for 1947-1948 and 1948-1949 they had Nuetral (Normal).

[Yellow Evan]

IMO the 1948 Atlantic Hurricane Season could be used as an possible analog season for this year. Just minus a few of the intense storms and hurricanes and overall track this seems possible.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1948_Atlantic_hurricane_season

That looks like a nice analog. I wish we knew what the ENSO signal was. 1950 was la Nina so maybee we had an El Nino in 48.

http://www.skagitriverhistory.com/PDFs/elnino%20vs%20lanina%20years.pdf
Found this graph in PDF format which states the El Niño, La Niña, and Nuetral (Normal) years relating to flood events from 1900-2004.

Notice how for 1947-1948 and 1948-1949 they had Nuetral (Normal).

That doesn't look 100% accurate. In 2002-03, they say a La Nina formed.

[TheStormExpert]

Troughs alone don't make landfall less likely it is where a system forms and tracks in relation to that trough. With the MDR projected to be hostile a trough pattern might actually be a bad thing if you get development in NW carribean or Gulf or deep in the southern Carribean.

But it does create hostile conditions and that is what he is implying. The gulf and Caribbean were dudes last season because of the persistent trough producing howling shear and unfavorable conditions all season long and therefore nothing developed close in. And its looking like a carbon copy set up again for this season as well.

Well if he was implying that then it does not jive with the article he cited which does not connect the persistent trough to more hostile conditions. Klotzbach mentions only that the persistent trough aided in steering systems away from the mainland. Yes troughs can create shear but they can also help a system with outflow and help create storms on the tail end of the trough especially in the gulf.

Hurricane Wilma is the most recent storm that could apply to what you are stating since after being steered across Florida and out to sea by the trough it still restrengthened to a Cat.3 in the Atlantic on its way out to sea.

[Cyclenall]

The gulf and Caribbean were dudes last season because of the persistent trough producing howling shear and unfavorable conditions all season long and therefore nothing developed close in.

I didn't know that the Gulf and Caribbean regions had genders, let alone that it changes from time to time .

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Good catch

And blp I disagree. Nothing formed on the tail end of troughs in the sw Carib or gulf last year. All they did was create high amounts of low,mid, and upper level shear all across the gulf, especially the northern gulf all summer. Nothing could ever get going down at the surface cause the shear kept ripping apart and or relocating whatever centers did try to form to the northeast away from any convection.

[blp]

In my posts, I never referred to anything forming last year. I was responding to the discussion of the persistent trough over the last several years. Last year had many problems which are well documented.