Texas Summer - 2014

[wxman57]

I was still a bit chilly on both bike rides this past weekend. Rode through persistent light misty drizzle for 2 1/2 hours on Saturday (11am-4pm ride) before the sun finally broke through. Wife was "cold". High only in the low 80s Saturday. For Sunday, we took off closer to noon and the temp was already 86. Felt quite pleasant until the clouds blocked out the sun a few hours later. Could have been warmer.

[Rgv20]

Was 109 yesterday and a forecast high of 102 today...Nice and Toasty!!!

[Tireman4]

I was still a bit chilly on both bike rides this past weekend. Rode through persistent light misty drizzle for 2 1/2 hours on Saturday (11am-4pm ride) before the sun finally broke through. Wife was "cold". High only in the low 80s Saturday. For Sunday, we took off closer to noon and the temp was already 86. Felt quite pleasant until the clouds blocked out the sun a few hours later. Could have been warmer.

Oh boy, here we go. You know, I miss the bi-polar Wxman 57. He was so cool. He was arguing with himself. He was doubting his forecasts...ahhh those were the days my friend...

[Portastorm]

Well gang, I have seen two forecasts for this summer from professional meteorologists for Texas/Southern Plains and both say hot and dry. Anyone seen a forecast from an at least somewhat reliable source offering a different viewpoint?

What confuses me is that the summer of 1997 was generally cooler and wetter than normal for much of Texas. That was a year of a developing strong Nino. We appear to be dealing with similar conditions this year. Not sure why we would expect the opposite this summer.

Thoughts?

[Texas Snowman]

Well gang, I have seen two forecasts for this summer from professional meteorologists for Texas/Southern Plains and both say hot and dry. Anyone seen a forecast from an at least somewhat reliable source offering a different viewpoint?

What confuses me is that the summer of 1997 was generally cooler and wetter than normal for much of Texas. That was a year of a developing strong Nino. We appear to be dealing with similar conditions this year. Not sure why we would expect the opposite this summer.

Thoughts?

Porta, the winter forecast was for a mild/warm season, no?

We all know how that turned out.

[wxman57]

Well gang, I have seen two forecasts for this summer from professional meteorologists for Texas/Southern Plains and both say hot and dry. Anyone seen a forecast from an at least somewhat reliable source offering a different viewpoint?

What confuses me is that the summer of 1997 was generally cooler and wetter than normal for much of Texas. That was a year of a developing strong Nino. We appear to be dealing with similar conditions this year. Not sure why we would expect the opposite this summer.

Thoughts?

I'm leaning toward wetter and near normal to slightly below normal temps for Texas this summer (and I've been known to have somewhat of a warm bias...). A "hot & dry" forecast will be right about 98% of the time for Texas, though.

[Ntxw]

Worth a post here from the spring thread

I'm starting to think these troughs parking just to our west is a net result of El Nino asserting itself and not just some anomalous feature. The EPAC close to Mexico looks favorable for development. The Euro looks bullish, especially if you add an epac storm into the west trough/SE ridge. It creates a "lane" or path that comes right through Texas for moisture between the two features from the tropics. Often late May and June can give a snippet of the dominant pattern that then becomes persistent for the summer. And often, unlike a modoki, a traditional El Nino features troughing over the Southwest vs the southeast.

http://i62.tinypic.com/27zkal1.png

http://i58.tinypic.com/vwykap.png

[Portastorm]

Wow ... wxman57 and Ntxw on board, or at least suggesting, that the hot and dry forecasts for this summer *may* be flawed. I like it ... I like seeing that a alot!

[srainhoutx]

Well gang, I have seen two forecasts for this summer from professional meteorologists for Texas/Southern Plains and both say hot and dry. Anyone seen a forecast from an at least somewhat reliable source offering a different viewpoint?

What confuses me is that the summer of 1997 was generally cooler and wetter than normal for much of Texas. That was a year of a developing strong Nino. We appear to be dealing with similar conditions this year. Not sure why we would expect the opposite this summer.

Thoughts?

I'm leaning toward wetter and near normal to slightly below normal temps for Texas this summer (and I've been known to have somewhat of a warm bias...). A "hot & dry" forecast will be right about 98% of the time for Texas, though.

It tend to agree. The longer range guidance is suggesting the Gulf of Tehuantepec and the Bay of Campeche as well as the NW Caribbean Sea may offer deeper tropical moisture and if the Western trough becomes a fixture as it has been with the current state of the PDO regime. The developing El Nino could deliver a nice moisture plume across Texas and with the uptick of Tropical Activity in the EPAC and the monsoon season may shift a bit further E as that feature develops this summer.

[JDawg512]

Just posted in the spring thread that I think the CPC summer outlook is wrong. I just do not see that happening considering what is going on with the Pacific and the formation of a fairly strong El Nino. The more power the El Nino, the earlier in the year we see its effects.

[Ntxw]

Maybe we can get a repeat of summer 1903, or 1905, heck 1904 works too. They were Nino's I believe except maybe 1904. Ah yes, is a nice dream.

[Tireman4]

Maybe we can get a repeat of summer 1903, or 1905, heck 1904 works too. They were Nino's I believe except maybe 1904. Ah yes, is a nice dream.

Ok, fess up. What were those summer's like? Snow?..LOL

[Ntxw]

Maybe we can get a repeat of summer 1903, or 1905, heck 1904 works too. They were Nino's I believe except maybe 1904. Ah yes, is a nice dream.

Ok, fess up. What were those summer's like? Snow?..LOL

IF that happened wxman57 would have to move . 1903 across the board was coldest (or least hot) of the summers for north Texas as far as records go. Overall much Texas saw unusually cool summers. It wasn't crazy wet but just enough and plenty of refreshing air. The entire period from 1903-1907 had amazing summers. DFW recorded very few 100 degree days (probably altogether less than what you would expect for one summer). Fall also came much sooner in those years like 1903 where Austin recorded 40s by mid Sept.

DFW 100 degrees days

1903-1
1904-1
1905-1
1906-0
1907-12
1908-1

[South Texas Storms]

Rain chances will be returning to Texas this weekend as a slow moving storm system approaches the region from the west. Some rainfall totals over 2 inches are possible across parts of west and central Texas by early next week. Hopefully much of the state can get another beneficial rain event!



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[Ntxw]

Meteorological Summer begins tomorrow. In spirit the La-La land GFS shows the second highest temperature ever for DFW. Of course this is very unlikely to happen but it does mark dark times for some of us to come, for others the most wonderful of the time the year.

[Ntxw]

JJA is upon us! The three months that make up the bulk of summer.



El Nino continues to build on, our NE PAC warm pool (now morphed into a full +PDO) still hanging around.

[Ntxw]

Interesting Euro has been trying to push in a fairly stout cold front (for June) in a little over week. La La land of course and whatever comes of any EPAC remnants/BOC system has some influence on us. Overall summer has settled in, hot and humid will rain supreme here on out as it always does in Texas while those arctic blasts and frozen precipitation thoughts are distant memory. Those who were tired of cold weather, your permanent (for 4 months) warmth has arrived.

[Ntxw]

WPC is following the euro for a significant rain event for the state, meanwhile GFS is not as wet happy. We tend to get our first true summer heat wave around the summer solstice which is about 2 weeks away. If the rain occurs it may put a dampen to such heat wave if it occurs. And a far cry from 2011's persistent hot, and dry thank goodness.



Side note: These WPC maps are not to be taken as gospel especially considering how far out they sometimes go. However they are a good tool to see if an "event" may happen somewhere.

[katheria]

Ugh not that much rain in nw ar got vacation up there from 6-12 through the 22nd

[dhweather]

Boy, if that 10.7 "X" was just centered just north of Lavon, fill lakes Lavon and Hubbard right on up.