2014 EPAC Season

[Yellow Evan]

GFS shows system west of 91E 78 hours out. ENCWF does not show this though.



Peak, before moving inland.

[Cyclenall]

My 2014 North Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season Prediction is as follows:

18/11/7 (Final)

ACE: 197

These are some point form notes on my thoughts for this season:

- At least one category 5 hurricane will form
- There will be three major hurricane landfalls on the mainland Mexican coastline this season
- More TC's will be traveling westwards at a low latitude this season entering into the Cpac
- In the "Hyper-Active" category for Epac seasons
- One large hurricane will form
- A major hurricane will form before June 20
- One tropical cyclone will do 2 loops

Note: None of this is based on scientific data or factual evidence. These are general thoughts that I have on what I think will happen.

[Yellow Evan]

My 2014 North Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season Prediction is as follows:

18/11/7 (Final)

ACE: 197

These are some point form notes on my thoughts for this season:

- At least one category 5 hurricane will form
- There will be three major hurricane landfalls on the mainland Mexican coastline this season
- More TC's will be traveling westwards at a low latitude this season entering into the Cpac
- In the "Hyper-Active" category for Epac seasons
- One large hurricane will form
- A major hurricane will form before June 20
- One tropical cyclone will do 2 loops

Note: None of this is based on scientific data or factual evidence. These are general thoughts that I have on what I think will happen.

Worth noting that FYI there has never been more than 2 EPAC major landfalls in a season, and that occurred once in 1976 (possibly 1881 but that was pre-HURDAT). I will do an updated forecast tomorrow possibly. My one from March was 18/8/5.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Honestly, I want to start following this basin too. It's just at the other side of my basin which is the most active. I seldom follow the SPAC too.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I just viewed the old pages in the thread, I saw my forecast, and I think it is quite conservative.

Honestly, I want to start following this basin too. It's just at the other side of my basin which is the most active. I seldom follow the SPAC too.


Anyway, here is my seasonal forecast.
May 2014 Unofficial East Pacific Hurricane Season Forecast

ACTIVITY NUMBERS
21 Tropical Storms
11 Hurricanes
7 Major Hurricanes

The season is expected to have activity closer to the equator, with also it above-average in both the eastern and central North Pacific and with a possibility of at least one (1) storm moving towards the WPAC. It is also above-average due to more powerful and lasting systems, fueled by the favorable environment brought by the (strong) El Niño lingering throughout the season. There would possibly be a category 5 or a near category 5 system, which, a near category 5 is above 130 kts.

The ACE would be at 185.

I last edited my forecast at May 23, 2014 at 11:28 PM PHT (UTC +8)

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I GOT A POINT! There were 3 near-category 5 hurricanes so far, and one was successful! Marie became a category 5 eventually deepening to 918 mb, making it the 5th strongest eastern Pacific hurricane on record.

CURRENTLY, the tally is at 14/9/6 and the ACE is at 120.

ANOTHER POINT! Hurricane Genevieve moved to the WPAC, and was given the international designation 1413 and was a category 5 although it was already a typhoon then.

[Yellow Evan]

Honestly, I want to start following this basin too. It's just at the other side of my basin which is the most active. I seldom follow the SPAC too.

EPAC is trackable IMO but can get bland at times. It is in an inactive cycle right now and sometimes things don't always pan out. If you enjoy tracking majors at sea, you'll love it

[hurricanes1234]

Honestly, I want to start following this basin too. It's just at the other side of my basin which is the most active. I seldom follow the SPAC too.

EPAC is trackable IMO but can get bland at times. It is in an inactive cycle right now and sometimes things don't always pan out. If you enjoy tracking majors at sea, you'll love it

Yes, the EPAC does get active in summer. I mean, sometimes there are two or three storms at sea in a train, very pretty indeed and far from land. Even last year when storms were weak, Gil and Henriette developed one behind the other out at sea.

[Yellow Evan]

Honestly, I want to start following this basin too. It's just at the other side of my basin which is the most active. I seldom follow the SPAC too.

EPAC is trackable IMO but can get bland at times. It is in an inactive cycle right now and sometimes things don't always pan out. If you enjoy tracking majors at sea, you'll love it

Yes, the EPAC does get active in summer. I mean, sometimes there are two or three storms at sea in a train, very pretty indeed and far from land. Even last year when storms were weak, Gil and Henriette developed one behind the other out at sea.

That's another plus; the EPAc is more likely to fit into your school schedule than the ATL.

Regarding last season's summer outburst, there were two, one that had Cosme/Daillia/Erick, all o3 of which bought some damage to MX as weak Category 1 hurricanes, and another with Flossie/Gil/Henriette. From mid August for about 3 weeks, there was another burst of activity that included Manuel, and after a brief break, continued into early November and included Raymond. Last season honesty looking back at it now wasn't that bad. It had a lot of storms strike the Baja California Peninsula, which is a pattern I like to see (minus all the deaths and damage of course).

I think this season will be similar, except the storms will be much stronger. I'd expect 18-8-5 this season, maintaining my 18-8-5 forecast from earlier in the year. SST's are vary warm and already are up to 26C along Cabo San Lucas. SST's well above normal along the western Baja coast. However, they are only near average elsewhere, and there is a cool pool near 120W. Still, not unlike 1997. On the positive side, as indicated on page 6, shear is way below normal and vertical instability is once again above average. By comparisons, shear in both 2006 and 2009 at this time were above normal. Vertical instability in 2009 was above normal (and there was quite some consistency then) while 2006 was average, but on an upward spike. The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cycloneye]

An area of disturbed weather has formed several hundred miles
south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for some gradual development of this
system over the next several days while it moves slowly westward to
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[Yellow Evan]

An area of disturbed weather has formed several hundred miles
south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for some gradual development of this
system over the next several days while it moves slowly westward to
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

This is the system behind 91E that I've mentioned before. Now they show an easterly course. It could be phantom, given how poorly the GFS has been playing as well late.

[hurricanes1234]

I wouldn't jump the gun on anything developing here as yet, considering what happened to 90E and 91E, both of which gained support from the GFS at one point. Also, 91E just passed through this part of EPAC and it fell apart. Why are they so low in latitude?

[Yellow Evan]

I wouldn't jump the gun on anything developing here as yet, considering what happened to 90E and 91E, both of which gained support from the GFS at one point. Also, 91E just passed through this part of EPAC and it fell apart. Why are they so low in latitude?

Disturbances so far seem to be moving west since they are semi-attached to the ITCZ, which at this time of the year, is around 5-10N. there is a lot of ridges prevented storms being picked up by troughs and hitting land.

[cycloneye]

Yellow Evan,dont forget 90E that moved north and made it to the Mexican coast.

[Yellow Evan]

Yellow Evan,dont forget 90E that moved north and made it to the Mexican coast.

True, but for a while, that was attached to the ITCZ. It slowly drifted north due to a trough IIRC, but for most of the disturbances have moved west, like 91E, this new system, and the system that never got on the TWO that lasted between 90E and 91E.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

EPAC is trackable IMO but can get bland at times. It is in an inactive cycle right now and sometimes things don't always pan out. If you enjoy tracking majors at sea, you'll love it

Yes, the EPAC does get active in summer. I mean, sometimes there are two or three storms at sea in a train, very pretty indeed and far from land. Even last year when storms were weak, Gil and Henriette developed one behind the other out at sea.

That's another plus; the EPAc is more likely to fit into your school schedule than the ATL.

Regarding last season's summer outburst, there were two, one that had Cosme/Daillia/Erick, all o3 of which bought some damage to MX as weak Category 1 hurricanes, and another with Flossie/Gil/Henriette. From mid August for about 3 weeks, there was another burst of activity that included Manuel, and after a brief break, continued into early November and included Raymond. Last season honesty looking back at it now wasn't that bad. It had a lot of storms strike the Baja California Peninsula, which is a pattern I like to see (minus all the deaths and damage of course).

I think this season will be similar, except the storms will be much stronger. I'd expect 18-8-5 this season, maintaining my 18-8-5 forecast from earlier in the year. SST's are vary warm and already are up to 26C along Cabo San Lucas. SST's well above normal along the western Baja coast. However, they are only near average elsewhere, and there is a cool pool near 120W. Still, not unlike 1997. On the positive side, as indicated on page 6, shear is way below normal and vertical instability is once again above average. By comparisons, shear in both 2006 and 2009 at this time were above normal. Vertical instability in 2009 was above normal (and there was quite some consistency then) while 2006 was average, but on an upward spike. The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

High number of storms contributed to a low ACE and much lower than expected. This may be due to cooler SST and less favorable conditions set last year. It was cool neutral. So this year both the EPAC and WPAC will be very trackable. So I could balance my tracking here with the WPAC too? And WPAC storms are quite easy to balance with MY school schedule as storms can form anytime, and, the season runs all year. Right now, am on a 2-3 month summer break. Hope we could see Amanda before June 16.

[hurricanes1234]

Would be interesting if this area mentioned currently in the TWO forms, it would be one of the lowest-latitude ever. Right now it has the strange look characteristic of low latitude systems (I like the look) and it's below 9°N. Amazing! Reminds me of Alvin's latitude last year.

[Yellow Evan]

Would be interesting if this area mentioned currently in the TWO forms, it would be one of the lowest-latitude ever. Right now it has the strange look characteristic of low latitude systems (I like the look) and it's below 9°N. Amazing! Reminds me of Alvin's latitude last year.

That's nothing compared to Ekeka 92. Also, worth noting in 2009, that there was a near-major (Carlos) around 10N. I've seen things at lower latitude (i.e. Alma 08 as an invest), but ill admit 91E and this new systems are further south and normal.

[Yellow Evan]

Yes, the EPAC does get active in summer. I mean, sometimes there are two or three storms at sea in a train, very pretty indeed and far from land. Even last year when storms were weak, Gil and Henriette developed one behind the other out at sea.

That's another plus; the EPAc is more likely to fit into your school schedule than the ATL.

Regarding last season's summer outburst, there were two, one that had Cosme/Daillia/Erick, all o3 of which bought some damage to MX as weak Category 1 hurricanes, and another with Flossie/Gil/Henriette. From mid August for about 3 weeks, there was another burst of activity that included Manuel, and after a brief break, continued into early November and included Raymond. Last season honesty looking back at it now wasn't that bad. It had a lot of storms strike the Baja California Peninsula, which is a pattern I like to see (minus all the deaths and damage of course).

I think this season will be similar, except the storms will be much stronger. I'd expect 18-8-5 this season, maintaining my 18-8-5 forecast from earlier in the year. SST's are vary warm and already are up to 26C along Cabo San Lucas. SST's well above normal along the western Baja coast. However, they are only near average elsewhere, and there is a cool pool near 120W. Still, not unlike 1997. On the positive side, as indicated on page 6, shear is way below normal and vertical instability is once again above average. By comparisons, shear in both 2006 and 2009 at this time were above normal. Vertical instability in 2009 was above normal (and there was quite some consistency then) while 2006 was average, but on an upward spike. The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

High number of storms contributed to a low ACE and much lower than expected. This may be due to cooler SST and less favorable conditions set last year. It was cool neutral. So this year both the EPAC and WPAC will be very trackable. So I could balance my tracking here with the WPAC too? And WPAC storms are quite easy to balance with MY school schedule as storms can form anytime, and, the season runs all year. Right now, am on a 2-3 month summer break. Hope we could see Amanda before June 16.

I am not you but I'd say yes, given that AFAIK the WPAC heavy MJO phases do not correlate with the EPAc heavy MJO phases.

As for Amanda's formation date, on average, that occurs on June 10 apparently. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/#bac I personall think we should see it before the 16th, given that the post-1966 record is July 1.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Well ond thing here is that the stotmx have a very limited area to form. Very rare to see a major below 10ºN here well in the wPac there was a 155 kt super typhoon and another 150 kt the previous year. Hoping to see a record breaking fishie in the ePac too!

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT MON MAY 19 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Systems with the potential to become a tropical cyclone during the
next 48 hours...

A disorganized area of disturbed weather is centered several
hundred miles south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec.
Environmental conditions are foreast to be conducive for a gradual
development of this system over the next several days while it moves
slowly westward to west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Avila