ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[xtyphooncyclonex]

If you ask me if the latest CFSv2 is correct and its trends continuous, similarities to a weak Modoki El Nino is not out of the question during the heart of the Atlantic Hurricane season, IMO.

Modoki and full basin el Niño. A true Modoki means that the region 1+2 is unaffected by warming. This is a case of full basin. Models were forecasting earlier (last January) a Modoki by MJJ, but keep trending towards traditional. CFSv2 forecasted too but it turned out they are mistaken for doing so. I don't get why this model is for lower readings later, and the big decrease means they are at a cool bias.

[NDG]

If you ask me if the latest CFSv2 is correct and its trends continuous, similarities to a weak Modoki El Nino is not out of the question during the heart of the Atlantic Hurricane season, IMO.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/C ... o12Mon.gif
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/C ... no3Mon.gif
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/C ... o34Mon.gif
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/C ... no4Mon.gif

That doesn't look like a Modoki to me. Notice how the 3.4 forecast is higher than the 4 forecast. That looks like a moderate El Nino.

I am talking about the Aug-October time period of the forecast, also keep in mind that Nino 4 Region is from 150W long to 160E long, so it takes part of Nino 3.4 or vice versa.

[Yellow Evan]

:uarrow: The forecast may be that close to a Modoki but it surely does not look like the typical eastern based El Nino like in '97 for Aug-Oct time period.

One more image to add, CFSv2 SSH forecast:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/C ... SSHMon.gif

It doesn't, it looks a -PDO El Nino simply. And that looks unlikely, given +PDO

Not to mention ENSO models are 1) are not very good 2) struggle the most in the spring

[xtyphooncyclonex]

The warmer Niño 3 & 1+2 get, the closer the large subsurface pool will get to the surface in these regions, the very less likely. Models were at a cooler bias at Niño 1+2. They never expected those +3ºC-+4ºC anomalies to surface at those regions.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

:uarrow: The forecast may be that close to a Modoki but it surely does not look like the typical eastern based El Nino like in '97 for Aug-Oct time period.

One more image to add, CFSv2 SSH forecast:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/C ... SSHMon.gif

It doesn't, it looks a -PDO El Nino simply. And that looks unlikely, given +PDO

Not to mention ENSO models are 1) are not very good 2) struggle the most in the spring

Maybe NDG never heard of the model spring/autumn barrier. And regarding PDO, we have the highest April PDO than 1986 which was at +1.55 or higher. We are currently at +1.13 whilst 1997 was lower at +1.05.

[NDG]

If you ask me if the latest CFSv2 is correct and its trends continuous, similarities to a weak Modoki El Nino is not out of the question during the heart of the Atlantic Hurricane season, IMO.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/C ... o12Mon.gif
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/C ... no3Mon.gif
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/C ... o34Mon.gif
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/C ... no4Mon.gif[/img]

Modoki and full basin el Niño. A true Modoki means that the region 1+2 is unaffected by warming. This is a case of full basin. Models were forecasting earlier (last January) a Modoki by MJJ, but keep trending towards traditional. CFSv2 forecasted too but it turned out they are mistaken for doing so. I don't get why this model is for lower readings later, and the big decrease means they are at a cool bias.

I would say that the CFSv2 did a fairly good job of forecasting Nino 1+2 warming up as it just did from 2-3 months ago, so why would I disregard its forecast for Nino 1+2 Region to fall below El Nino threshold during SON time frame.

[SeGaBob]

I thought this was worth posting.

http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2014/19may_elnino/

[Yellow Evan]

I thought this was worth posting.

http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2014/19may_elnino/

I don't think it'll be that strong to be honest. That ship may have sailed. We'll likely get an El Nino of 1-52.0C in intensity, max.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[xtyphooncyclonex]

The SOI meanwhile is high and its 30-day value is +3.0 and is slowly rising.

BOM has Niño 3.4 at +0.5ºC and proves that the CPC miscalculated the reading. This is supposed to be the 2nd consecutive week of Niño threshold. BOM makes more sense this time.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

BOM ENSO UPDATE: Tropical Pacific Ocean edges further toward El Niño

Issued on Tuesday 20 May 2014 | Product Code IDCKGEWWOO

The tropical Pacific Ocean continues a general trend toward El Niño, with just over half of the climate models surveyed by the Bureau suggesting El Niño thresholds will be exceeded by August. An El Niño ALERT remains in place, indicating at least a 70% chance of an El Niño developing in 2014.

ENSO SST Indices
Niño 1: +1.04
Niño 2: +1.18
Niño 3: +0.71
Niño 3.4: +0.46
Niño 4: +0.69
IOD: -0.09

To go to the links, please click or tap the hyperlinks, it is in large/regular font size, bold and is colored blue.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

The ONI for MAM would be anywhere between +0.2 to +0.5 and between +0.4 and +0.7 for AMJ. The first trimonthly season for this El Niño would be either by AMJ or MJJ.

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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the CPC/NOAA and BOM products.

[chaser1]

BOM ENSO UPDATE: Tropical Pacific Ocean edges further toward El Niño[/b]An El Niño ALERT remains in place, indicating at least a 70% chance of an El Niño developing in 2014.

ENSO SST Indices
Niño 1: +1.04
Niño 2: +1.28
Niño 3: +0.77
Niño 3.4: +0.54
Niño 4: +0.78
IOD: -0.09

Not sure if anyone else has made reference to this, but is it just me or does there seem to be an even broader range of equatorial waters showing warming anomalies, beyond the typical El Nino zones and pockets. How common is it for the Atlantic to even show warmer equatorial anomalies during an El Nino; I would not have thought that to occur and thought I noticed the most recent anomaly maps indicating warmer than normal SST's off Africa in the far E. Atlantic. I suppose if the following occurs...If we don't get more donations in STORM2K will have to shut down before the start of Hurricane season...., it'll all be somewhat of a mute point because no one reading this post right now, will quite frankly be in a position to log on to even know about it or even know about any impending potential outcome of such ongoing warming conditions. Just sayin'......

[stormkite]

Myself looking forward to a thumping La nina that should follow on after this event has completely unfolded.



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Myself looking forward to a thumping La nina that should follow on after this event has completely unfolded.



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

I hope so. The drought we will have this year would be over if the LA Niña forms. It is basically the reverse pattern. But Tue only drawback is that too much rain could lead to floods. We just need rain!

[NDG]

Lets take a closer detailed look at Nino 3.4
I have highlighted the area that it takes between 5N & 5S lat and between 120W and 170W long so that we can see that there is quite a bit of cooler SSTs going into that area, I think a lot of people are just looking at the immediate equatorial latitude thus questioning this week's updated average SSTs anomaly.

[Ntxw]

Myself looking forward to a thumping La nina that should follow on after this event has completely unfolded.

We should start get an idea if this will happen early next year. If the currents reverse and trades intensifies in Jan (though often this occurs in Feb/Mar for La Nina) then we may be tracking La Nina. We still have trouble with this current event so beyond that is out of our skill. Statistically using historical data, if we get a strong Nino the odds are greater for a Nina. It seems the moderate and weak Nino's have a greater chance at going to neutral the next year.

One reminder about BOM, their requirement for Nino is 0.8 vs CPC's 0.5.

[Kingarabian]

Lets take a closer detailed look at Nino 3.4
I have highlighted the area that it takes between 5N & 5S lat and between 120W and 170W long so that we can see that there is quite a bit of cooler SSTs going into that area, I think a lot of people are just looking at the immediate equatorial latitude thus questioning this week's updated average SSTs anomaly.

"Going into", is different from "already being there", which is what weekly SST averages are. Last week, 3.4 had a very steady amount of +0.5C daily readings. So if cooler waters are going into 3.4, then next weeks update would be he ideal time to show the drop.

TAO also showed +1.0C popping up and spreading over 3.4.

TropicalTidbits (I know they have a different method of measuring the SST's), had +0.5C for the whole week.

I just wish they told us what they factored in to drop it to +0.4C.

[Ntxw]

I agree about having CPC be transparent about what source they use. I've always been told it was TAO so if they changed it would be nice to know so that we can track properly. In the big scheme you're only talking about a 0.1 diff so averaged out it won't mean too much but just something I wish they would say in their updates. I'm not saying they are wrong. Everything else on their slide/ppt signaled warming over the weeks.

[Kingarabian]

:uarrow: I agree about having CPC be transparent about what source they use. I've always been told it was TAO so if they changed it would be nice to know so that we can track properly. In the big scheme you're only talking about a 0.1 diff so averaged out it won't mean too much but just something I wish they would say in their updates. I'm not saying they are wrong. Everything else on their slide/ppt signaled warming over the weeks.

Are there any other public tools?

[cycloneye]

Ntxw,here is a good discussion by CPC Global Hazards group about how the MJO signal and Kelvin Waves are doing and how are the expectations for the next 2 weeks. What is your take?

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... /ghazards/