2014 EPAC Season

[Yellow Evan]

Nothing more than a boring TS on GFS.

Euro/UKMET don't show it.



CMC brings it to hurricane intensity, and has a phantom storm behind it. But the CMC shows that every week.



NOGAPS shows a TD.

[hurricanes1234]

According to the TWO, conditions are favourable for gradual development. What exactly makes it favourable? I'm struggling to see any development beyond invest status because 91E was here and fell apart. However, I am not any expert.

[Yellow Evan]

According to the TWO, conditions are favourable for gradual development. What exactly makes it favourable? I'm struggling to see any development beyond invest status because 91E was here and fell apart. However, I am not any expert.

It looks it could hit a break in the trade winds and enter marginally favorable conditions soon, where shear is less than 20 knots.

[stormkite]

[xtyphooncyclonex]

The area is loaded with dry area and moderate-to-high VWS. Although, SST's are well very above-average. This is what killed 90E & 91E.

[cycloneye]

Invest 92E is up.

[Kingarabian]

The central Pacific could see up to seven tropical cyclones in the upcoming hurricane season, the Central Pacific Hurricane Center announced Wednesday. The average cyclone tally is four to five.

[euro6208]

The central Pacific could see up to seven tropical cyclones in the upcoming hurricane season, the Central Pacific Hurricane Center announced Wednesday. The average cyclone tally is four to five.

Wonder how many of them could cross into the wpac. Interesting months ahead

[Yellow Evan]

The EPAC NOAA forecast comes out today, right? If so, I'm thinking they go with 14-19 storms, 6-10 hurricanes, 3-6 major hurricanes.

[cycloneye]

The EPAC NOAA forecast comes out today, right? If so, I'm thinking they go with 14-19 storms, 6-10 hurricanes, 3-6 major hurricanes.

Yes,at 11 AM it comes out in conjunction with the North Atlantic forecast.

[Yellow Evan]

The central Pacific could see up to seven tropical cyclones in the upcoming hurricane season, the Central Pacific Hurricane Center announced Wednesday. The average cyclone tally is four to five.

Wonder how many of them could cross into the wpac. Interesting months ahead

CPHC press release:

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/examp ... nal_v2.pdf

[xtyphooncyclonex]

This basin has lots of invests right now, precursor to an active season?

[cycloneye]

NOAA EPAC forecast is 14-20 named storms.

May 22, 2014

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center announced today that a near-normal or above-normal hurricane season is likely for the Eastern Pacific this year. The outlook calls for a 50 percent chance of an above-normal season, a 40 percent chance of a near-normal season, and a 10 percent chance of a below normal season.

Seasonal hurricane forecasters are calling for a 70 percent chance of 14 to 20 named storms, which includes 7 to 11 hurricanes, of which 3 to 6 are expected to become major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale).

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/E ... cane.htmll

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Wow, this is going to be a very active basin this year. Can't wait to track many hurricanes, together with typhoons and some SPac cyclones. The basins that are expected to have an increase in tropical activity due to the lingering El Niño** and I hope there would be more powerful and harmless typhoons and hurricanes.

**Still expected to occur and not yet officially declared as of May 22nd, but chances are over 70 percent.

[cycloneye]

TD ONE-E has formed

[Yellow Evan]

NOAA EPAC forecast is 14-20 named storms.

May 22, 2014

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center announced today that a near-normal or above-normal hurricane season is likely for the Eastern Pacific this year. The outlook calls for a 50 percent chance of an above-normal season, a 40 percent chance of a near-normal season, and a 10 percent chance of a below normal season.

Seasonal hurricane forecasters are calling for a 70 percent chance of 14 to 20 named storms, which includes 7 to 11 hurricanes, of which 3 to 6 are expected to become major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale).

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/E ... cane.htmll

This is the most the have ever predicted since 2003, when they started with this.

[hurricanes1234]

Wow, just wow. I have a strong feeling that this season could be one with many more fishes than usual.

Not official.

[Yellow Evan]

Wow, just wow. I have a strong feeling that this season could be one with many more fishes than usual.

Not official.

I think they'll be a lot of fishes in the first few months, but it statistically is fairly certain we will see a significant threat to MX and/or the USA the final third of the season. Let's not get too carried away; even in El Nino years, May storm's are fairly common (2006, 2004, and 2002 all had them; that's 3 out of the 4 most recent El Nino years).

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.[td100]

[euro6208]

My EPAC forecast (Final)

20/14/8

-Two Major hurricanes hitting Mexico
-One dreaded pinhole eye but luckily far out at sea
-Eight TC will move into the CPAC's area of responsibility
-Two threatens to move into the Caribbean while developing
-Strongest will be a category 4 with 135 knots sustained
-More than half of the Major hurricanes will be *midgets*
-About 50 percent of the storms will develop in a very small area south and southwest of panama due to el nino.
-About 60 percent of the storms will rapidly intensify at some points of their lives.
-One makes landfall over Baja California and it's remnants impacts the southwest U.S.
-Three annulars

This is my first ever EPAC forecast so please bear with me. Not official

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Our first TS this year has formed. TS Amanda is expected to steadily intensify to a hurricane in the NHC and JTWC forecasts.