ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Ntxw]

Are there any other public tools?

Not that I'm aware of, everything I know has been posted here.

Ntxw,here is a good discussion by CPC Global Hazards group about how the MJO signal and Kelvin Waves are doing and how are the expectations for the next 2 weeks. What is your take?

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... /ghazards/

I'm a little unsure of how it will actually play out without a true MJO signal. But convection (large scale)has widely been around the far EPAC (Nino 1+2) regions which I don't think will change much as well as just north of the equatorial Pacific basin wide.

[Ntxw]

These models . One week down, next week is up roller coaster

For entertainment only



AVHRR

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Last week CFSv2 forecast was just barely at 1.5 or 1.0 but now taking it over the threshold of strong El Niño.

[SeGaBob]

I thought this was worth posting.

http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2014/19may_elnino/

I don't think it'll be that strong to be honest. That ship may have sailed. We'll likely get an El Nino of 1-52.0C in intensity, max.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

I'm not really promoting a strong el nino ... it was just something I came across.

[Kingarabian]

Fact is, we're overdue for a Super/Strong El-Nino.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

It's starting to appear that a moderate El Nino is the most likely outcome for this year. Most strong El Ninos in history have really ramped up starting in May, something we're not seeing. The amount of forcing does not match years like 1997-98 or 1982-83. And the atmosphere isn't reacting--OLR anomalies continue near-average and the SOI continues above-average.

Looking like a peak just above 1C if you ask me.

[Yellow Evan]

It's starting to appear that a moderate El Nino is the most likely outcome for this year. Most strong El Ninos in history have really ramped up starting in May, something we're not seeing. The amount of forcing does not match years like 1997-98 or 1982-83. And the atmosphere isn't reacting--OLR anomalies continue near-average and the SOI continues above-average.

Looking like a peak just above 1C if you ask me.

Well, to be fair, we did get our first 0.5C reading in May. Although SOI is starting to concern me, I think a moderate to strong Nino is likely.

[Ntxw]

SST loop of the past 12 weeks (3 months). Tells a cool story of warm ENSO and how you get one going!

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/s ... .anim.html

And according to these SST's aside from ENSO, May is likely going to see another big +PDO reading as the contrast from the eastern NPAC from the western NPAC continues to grow

[cycloneye]

The difference between 1997 and 2014 continues to get larger as of May 21 Nino 1+2 at 1997 was at +2.6C,Nino 3 at +1.0C,Nino 3.4 was at +0.8C and Nino 4 at +0.7C.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for

[asd123]

What's everyone's take on the developing(?) El Nino? If you go to the link at viewtopic.php?f=31&t=92137&st=0&sk=t&sd=a If you go the 5th image down, what do you think of the warm pool in the upper right corner significantly shrinking as compared to the past days and weeks? the 6 and 7 anomalies are gone, and the 5 one has shrunk considerably.

Additionally, if you go down to the 14th image on the same link, the bottom picture (TAO Trition Anomalies, on the left hand side of the image, are those Westerly Wind Bursts? All throughout the same image, the easterly trade wind arrows seem relaxed.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

And we're even ahead of 2009, which was a borderline strong El Niño. This may mean stronger than 2009, weaker than 1982. And we're behind 1997, but not necessarily 1982. 1982 actually intensified by October, and not around this time. But that year's El niño started by AMJ. Maybe we're seeing a borderline super El Niño this year, at best? Like 1965/72 and not 1982/97. We are developing really fast!


And the subsurface is weakening VERY SLOWER than expected. The models (particularly CFSv2) expected a weakening (due to surfacing) of the warm pool and that there will be only 3-4ºC anomalies at max by May but there are still some 5-6ºC anomalies.


And the SOI is high because Tahiti is in the negative phase of the MJO. It will plunge when the MJO arrives there, and the negative phase (high pressures) goes to Australia or DARWIN.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the CPC/NOAA and BOM products.

[Yellow Evan]

What's everyone's take on the developing(?) El Nino? If you go to the link at viewtopic.php?f=31&t=92137&st=0&sk=t&sd=a If you go the 5th image down, what do you think of the warm pool in the upper right corner significantly shrinking as compared to the past days and weeks? the 6 and 7 anomalies are gone, and the 5 one has shrunk considerably.

Additionally, if you go down to the 14th image on the same link, the bottom picture (TAO Trition Anomalies, on the left hand side of the image, are those Westerly Wind Bursts? All throughout the same image, the easterly trade wind arrows seem relaxed.

I see some 6C anomalies in the sub-surface. I believe it was mentioned earlier in this thread that one of the TAO buys aren't working properly FYI.

I think this El Nino is getting there.

From Twitter, here is what Levi thinks:

Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits May 20

@wxtrackercody Even '09-10 had a more consistent SOI fall than this year so far, but we'll see. My bet is ~1.0C peak. pic.twitter.com/rsDSTeSdIJ

[Ntxw]

@wxtrackercody Even '09-10 had a more consistent SOI fall than this year so far, but we'll see. My bet is ~1.0C peak. pic.twitter.com/rsDSTeSdIJ

This is not completely true. May 09 did have SOI falls more than this year, but then it rose eventually back to positive in July. Between Jan-July there were only 2 months with 30 day SOI below zero (May/June) and neither were the -8 required. It dipped down again in August then went back to positive in Sept and finally tanking below the threshold in Oct. In terms of SOI this was a not an impressive event.

[Yellow Evan]

@wxtrackercody Even '09-10 had a more consistent SOI fall than this year so far, but we'll see. My bet is ~1.0C peak. pic.twitter.com/rsDSTeSdIJ

This is not completely true. May 09 did have SOI falls more than this year, but then it rose eventually back to positive in July. Between Jan-July there were only 2 months with 30 day SOI below zero (May/June) and neither were the -8 required. It dipped down again in August then went back to positive in Sept and finally tanking below the threshold in Oct. In terms of SOI this was a not an impressive event.

Well, 2009 was a Modoki.

[Ntxw]

In a post before I mentioned NOAA/CPC also uses ESOI, as the SOI is something used by BOM. There are noises in the ESOI but it's not as drastic as the SOI (for example -15 one month then +13 the next in some Nino's) , and the correlation to ONI is much stronger. However unfortunately we don't have weekly or daily readings of the ESOI at least not that I'm able to find as of yet. Perhaps a good treasure hunt for someone to find it .

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/reqsoi.for

[Kingarabian]

Ntxw, when can we expect the next sub-surface pool, if there were to be one?

[Ntxw]

Ntxw, when can we expect the next sub-surface pool, if there were to be one?

Back in March, I think I said the current warm pool would drive warm waters for a few months through Mid-summer. I was using various models and historical cases as most ENSO (particularly Nino) events have two spurts one in the Spring and one in the Fall, the two intra-seasonal periods. They often weaken during Aug/Sept, 2012 never recovered from this period. Usually by mid fall Oct, Nino's tend to crank with another strong push of warm anomalies.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

We're actually ahead of every other El niño year but 1997 since 1990. And it is a huge disagreement that we did not ramp up, yet. We are ramping up evidenced by the readings.
Date 1+2 3 3.4 4
14MAY2014 1.3 0.6 0.4 0.8
13MAY2009 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2
17MAY2006 -0.3 0.0 0.2 0.3
12MAY2004 -1.3 -0.6 0.1 0.3
15MAY2002 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.6
14MAY1997 2.4 0.9 0.6 0.6
11MAY1994 -0.8 -0.3 0.0 0.2
15MAY1991 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.7

El Niños with SSTs reaching strong (but may or may not be classified as strong) in the list:
1991-92 (borderline super at 2.0)
1997-98 (HISTORIC super at 2.8)
2002-03 (strong at 1.7)
2009-10 (borderline super at 1.9)

NIÑO 1+2/3.4 ANOMALY AT MAX (not simultaneously)
1991-92: 2.6/2.0 (transitioned to traditional later)
1994-95: 0.9/1.4 (modoki)
1997-98: 4.6/2.8 (pure traditional entirely)
2002-03: 1.5/1.7 (traditional before declaration, afterwards modoki)
2004-05: 0.5/0.8 (pure modoki mostly)
2006-07: 1.6/1.3 (partly pure traditional)
2009-10: 1.2/1.9 (pure tradtional transitioned to modoki)

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Oh, and BTW, there would be significant warming and SOI tanking when the next positive MJO with a KW arrive over the EPAC and East SPAC. The mild cooling and slight rise of the SOI are due to the Pacific in the negative MJO. By that time, El Niño will likely be declared. As of now, all Niño regions are having a blip in the daily data.

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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the CPC/NOAA and BOM products.

[Ntxw]

According to this daily loop 3.4 is resuming warming. 3 and 1+2 still leads the way, and Peru is the hotbed (pun intended) of activity.

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/s ... .week.html



Compare to the same (or nearest) of the past 5 Nino's (the data only goes back so far with these)











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