Global model runs discussion
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- cycloneye
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion
This is from the San Juan NWS discussing about what some models show in the area.
.DISCUSSION...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE FVRBL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES AS
HEIGHTS FALL AND MID LEVEL TEMPS COOL DOWN AS TROF OVR THE SW ATLC
DEEPENS AND EVOLVES INTO A CLOSED LOW NORTH OF PR BY FRI. AS
CONVECTION BECOMES DEEPER IT WILL BE STEERED BY THE 0-6KM WINDS
WITH STEERING CURRENTS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED ON WED FROM THE SSW
FAVORING CONVECTION OVR NORTHEAST PR WED AND ERN
PR...CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND USVI THU AND SRN PR ON FRI.
TROF AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA SAT WITH UPPER LOW GRADUALLY
FILLING ACCORDING TO THE LATEST 12Z GEFS MEAN ALTHOUGH SPAGHETTI
PLOT INDICATES UPPER LOW COULD MEANDER FARTHER WEST OVR THE MONA
PASSAGE AS SUGGESTED BY THE 00Z ECMWF AND SOME GEFS MEMBERS. THIS
ALTERNATE SCENARIO WOULD RESULT IN A MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WX AND MORE RAINFALL. USING THE 12Z GEFS MEAN AS THE
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO THE MOST ACTIVE WX SHOULD OCCUR ON THU WITH
THE WORST CONDITIONS OVR THE USVI. THE LATEST TREND ALSO SUGGESTS
LESSER RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS FOR MAINLAND PR THAN IN PREVIOUS
RUNS. ALSO...CUTOFF LOWS ARE NOTORIOUS FOR BEING BIG SEVERE WX
PRODUCERS AND H5 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY COLD FOR THIS TIME
OF THE YEAR(-11C) SO HAIL AND STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO A POSSIBILITY.
WEATHER GRADUALLY BEGINS TO IMPROVE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TROF FILLS
AND PULLS AWAY AND HEIGHTS RISE.
.DISCUSSION...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE FVRBL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES AS
HEIGHTS FALL AND MID LEVEL TEMPS COOL DOWN AS TROF OVR THE SW ATLC
DEEPENS AND EVOLVES INTO A CLOSED LOW NORTH OF PR BY FRI. AS
CONVECTION BECOMES DEEPER IT WILL BE STEERED BY THE 0-6KM WINDS
WITH STEERING CURRENTS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED ON WED FROM THE SSW
FAVORING CONVECTION OVR NORTHEAST PR WED AND ERN
PR...CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND USVI THU AND SRN PR ON FRI.
TROF AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA SAT WITH UPPER LOW GRADUALLY
FILLING ACCORDING TO THE LATEST 12Z GEFS MEAN ALTHOUGH SPAGHETTI
PLOT INDICATES UPPER LOW COULD MEANDER FARTHER WEST OVR THE MONA
PASSAGE AS SUGGESTED BY THE 00Z ECMWF AND SOME GEFS MEMBERS. THIS
ALTERNATE SCENARIO WOULD RESULT IN A MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WX AND MORE RAINFALL. USING THE 12Z GEFS MEAN AS THE
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO THE MOST ACTIVE WX SHOULD OCCUR ON THU WITH
THE WORST CONDITIONS OVR THE USVI. THE LATEST TREND ALSO SUGGESTS
LESSER RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS FOR MAINLAND PR THAN IN PREVIOUS
RUNS. ALSO...CUTOFF LOWS ARE NOTORIOUS FOR BEING BIG SEVERE WX
PRODUCERS AND H5 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY COLD FOR THIS TIME
OF THE YEAR(-11C) SO HAIL AND STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO A POSSIBILITY.
WEATHER GRADUALLY BEGINS TO IMPROVE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TROF FILLS
AND PULLS AWAY AND HEIGHTS RISE.
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GFS
An unanalyized GFS map shows some sort of system moving up towards South Florida from the Caribbean by Day 7 and moves N then NE by Days 8 and 9...
I wouldn't mention it but it's been in previous runs so perhaps something...
http://www.weatherstreet.com/states/gfs ... recast.htm
I wouldn't mention it but it's been in previous runs so perhaps something...
http://www.weatherstreet.com/states/gfs ... recast.htm
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion
Miami discussion mentions it to:
For the early to middle part of next week, both the GFS and European model (ecmwf) have stayed consistent in showing an inverted surface trough approaching South Florida from the southeast with increasing moisture, especially Tue-Wed. Model trends suggest a possible low development (sub-tropical perhaps) favored off the Florida Atlantic coast with movement off to the northeast as an incoming middle/upper level trough shunts this off to the east by Thursday. Have placed chance probability of precipitation in the Tuesday- Wednesday timeframe. Placement of the trough/low is uncertain and will have implications on whether we stay on the dry side of this feature or wet side. /Gregoria
For the early to middle part of next week, both the GFS and European model (ecmwf) have stayed consistent in showing an inverted surface trough approaching South Florida from the southeast with increasing moisture, especially Tue-Wed. Model trends suggest a possible low development (sub-tropical perhaps) favored off the Florida Atlantic coast with movement off to the northeast as an incoming middle/upper level trough shunts this off to the east by Thursday. Have placed chance probability of precipitation in the Tuesday- Wednesday timeframe. Placement of the trough/low is uncertain and will have implications on whether we stay on the dry side of this feature or wet side. /Gregoria
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hurricanelonny
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion
12z GGEM and 12z Euro featured a significant sub-tropical or tropical system off the SE Coast 9 days out.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion
Riptide wrote:12z GGEM and 12z Euro featured a significant sub-tropical or tropical system off the SE Coast 9 days out.
Could you please show us the links or images?
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- Riptide
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion
TheStormExpert wrote:Riptide wrote:12z GGEM and 12z Euro featured a significant sub-tropical or tropical system off the SE Coast 9 days out.
Could you please show us the links or images?


Full 12z GGEM loop

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _watl.html
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Seems to be the first semi-realistic chance of anything developing this year (since I'm excluding the usual Caribbean-development-at-end-of-run that we start getting in May). What's particularly interesting is that as the time frame gets closer, the models seem to be getting stronger with it, and aren't pushing it further back as it gets closer like we saw so often last year.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion
It never fails, our crazy uncle is back again this year.
Last night's run shows the disturbance that both the GFS and ECMWF also to move over the Bahamas next week develop move northward hugging the eastern FL coast and making landfall in N.C. as a strong tropical or subtropical system.


Last night's run shows the disturbance that both the GFS and ECMWF also to move over the Bahamas next week develop move northward hugging the eastern FL coast and making landfall in N.C. as a strong tropical or subtropical system.


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- CourierPR
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion
[quote="NDG"]It never fails, our crazy uncle is back again this year.
Last night's run shows the disturbance that both the GFS and ECMWF also to move over the Bahamas next week develop move northward hugging the eastern FL coast and making landfall in N.C. as a strong tropical or subtropical system.
Surprisingly, Joe Bastardi says this system won't be tropical.
Last night's run shows the disturbance that both the GFS and ECMWF also to move over the Bahamas next week develop move northward hugging the eastern FL coast and making landfall in N.C. as a strong tropical or subtropical system.
Surprisingly, Joe Bastardi says this system won't be tropical.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion
Apparently the CMC has already moved quite a bit west making landfall in Ga. It seems the CMC is unaware that storms aren’t supposed to hit Ga directly. The other model hitting NC was the GEM which is even less reliable than the CMC. Until I see the Euro or the GFS show something I won’t bother wasting my time. Latest long term GFS is interesting though. It isn’t the PR system but it does have a low originate off the NC coast then a 360 loop through New England back off the NC coast starting on the 21st. What the heck, it may be the only thing we get to talk about this year according to most of the posts.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion
OuterBanker wrote:Apparently the CMC has already moved quite a bit west making landfall in Ga. It seems the CMC is unaware that storms aren’t supposed to hit Ga directly. The other model hitting NC was the GEM which is even less reliable than the CMC. Until I see the Euro or the GFS show something I won’t bother wasting my time. Latest long term GFS is interesting though. It isn’t the PR system but it does have a low originate off the NC coast then a 360 loop through New England back off the NC coast starting on the 21st. What the heck, it may be the only thing we get to talk about this year according to most of the posts.
Errrr, I'm pretty sure the GEM and the CMC are the same model.

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- wxman57
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion
Same thing the Canadian was predicting for today/tomorrow a week ago. I don't see any storm there now...
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion
For several days in a row now.....the models are consistently trying to spin something up in the caribbean? Right on cue with the start of the season. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr= ... =&ps=model
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- cycloneye
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion
Only for entertainment.


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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion
Last year the models showed nothing, so far they seem to be grabbing a few phantom storms. I wonder if this is any indication about the chances of development, at least early in this season.
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- northjaxpro
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There is nothing coming down the pike anytime soon folks. A big upper ridge is becoming established along the Gulf Coast and over Florida for several days to come, and I don't foresee tropical or subtropical systems developing through at least the next ten days or possibly longer. The only remote area of possible activity may be along the stalled out boundary down near Hispaniola and down into the central Carribean in the coming days. However, I am not expecting any activity anytime soon.
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NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion
The GFS has been quite consistent in developing the Caribbean system. It also keeps moving the time frame of development up. May not be a phantom
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- northjaxpro
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion
Alyono wrote:The GFS has been quite consistent in developing the Caribbean system. It also keeps moving the time frame of development up. May not be a phantom
Well, there is a remote chance right now that conditions may get favorable in a few days for that area I referenced near Hispaniola and the central Caribbean. If that area persists into next week, then I will start paying more attention.
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NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!
________________________________________________________________________________________
Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019
________________________________________________________________________________________
Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion
CFSv2 as well as ECM continue to hint at lowering pressures over the western Carib. first week of June and the CFSv2 is also showing heavy rainfall for southern half of Florida in that time frame. Something to watch i guess!
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