Global model runs discussion

[xtyphooncyclonex]

GFS has been really consistent with this system over the GOM, eventually reaching 997 mb amd is at mid-tropical storm intensity. I wonder if any other model develop this as a tropical cyclone, and not some mid/high-latitude system again.

[crownweather]

GFS has been really consistent with this system over the GOM, eventually reaching 997 mb amd is at mid-tropical storm intensity. I wonder if any other model develop this as a tropical cyclone, and not some mid/high-latitude system again.

Latest 15 km FIM model also is hinting at this possibility. See full FIM model for last night at http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/Welcome.cgi?dsK ... 2014+-+00Z .

FIM model for June 4th:


Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[xtyphooncyclonex]

GFS has been really consistent with this system over the GOM, eventually reaching 997 mb amd is at mid-tropical storm intensity. I wonder if any other model develop this as a tropical cyclone, and not some mid/high-latitude system again.

Latest 15 km FIM model also is hinting at this possibility. See full FIM model for last night at http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/Welcome.cgi?dsK ... 2014+-+00Z .

FIM model for June 4th:
http://img834.imageshack.us/img834/6034/x1jh.png

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

How about any other... major model (like CMC/GEM, NAVGEM, ECMWF..) that's forecasting a tropical storm at the very least, please?

[crownweather]

GFS has been really consistent with this system over the GOM, eventually reaching 997 mb amd is at mid-tropical storm intensity. I wonder if any other model develop this as a tropical cyclone, and not some mid/high-latitude system again.

Latest 15 km FIM model also is hinting at this possibility. See full FIM model for last night at http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/Welcome.cgi?dsK ... 2014+-+00Z .

FIM model for June 4th:
http://img834.imageshack.us/img834/6034/x1jh.png

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

How about any other... major model (like CMC/GEM, NAVGEM, ECMWF..) that's forecasting a tropical storm at the very least, please?

Still outside of the range of the Euro, Canadian and NAVGEM models. Give it another 2-3 days and see if these models start picking it up.

[cycloneye]

Well,GFS continues consistent.This is less than 300 hours.

[Alyono]

GFS showing a destructive hurricane for much of Florida now

[asd123]

GFS showing a destructive hurricane for much of Florida now

You mean like this: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... eus_47.png

What strength would this be?

[chaser1]

Last year the models showed nothing, so far they seem to be grabbing a few phantom storms. I wonder if this is any indication about the chances of development, at least early in this season.

That's a very good point and I think one given real consideration. Granted, we know that the various models are invariably tweaked from time to time, however I cannot recall a year where most of the major models seemed incapable of spinning up "model-canes". Of course, that is primarily due to the fact that conditions were such that obviously few Atlantic tropical systems would develop given a variety of unfavorable conditions. The "low" that the FIM is picking up on appears to me to be a monsoonal low given the overall size of the surface inflow from both basins. A depression or greater coming from such a feature would not be at all unreasonable, but way early to see if this plays out and given the long long range we are looking at, whether this feature really remains as far north as presently projected by FIM & GFS, or it it ends up further south and primarily in the Pacific basin. To Tolakrams' point though....., this would certainly seem to be indicative of present conditions potentially being at least "less hostile" for a couple long range models to pick on the possibility of development. Course, this also does not guarantee that we don't go back to the models suddenly not picking up on hardly any development as we get further into the season and therefore perhaps indicating that conditions might be becoming hostile again. At least for the near terms though, yeah... models trying to develop systems would seem to imply at least better conditions for development, as compared to last year.

[wxman57]

GFS showing a destructive hurricane for much of Florida now

You mean like this: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... eus_47.png

What strength would this be?

987mb would likely be a Cat 1 hurricane. Assuming, of course, that the 372hr GFS is perfect in predicting the pressure.

[chaser1]

GFS showing a destructive hurricane for much of Florida now

Hmmm, I'd have to disagree with that statment. I think this model is advertising a moderate to strong TS at this point.

As I see it, this cyclone appears to be fairly sprawling and the pressure gradient fairly expanded. I suppose if this were to come to fruition and were to be a smaller system, then it could certainly develop faster than a system a good deal larger. The fact that this would appear to be the rather large monsoonal gyre that the FIM & GFS are picking up on would lead me to believe that it certainly could be very wet and impact a fairly large area, but I would not project this system to be a hurricane given the pressure and wind field. I'd guess 45 kt's - 55 kt's. I would just have a hard time believing that 987mb would support an early year hurricane originating from a monsoonal type low. I think that such evolution isn't unreasonable, but under normal conditions it would still take a bit of time and i'm just not that convinced that conditions for development are going to be "that favorable" in the time frame the models are suggesting (at least not until we are at least seeing near term model support for very favorable conditions (SST's, low level convergence, upper level winds, thicknesses, etc)

[Alyono]

would be a major surge threat given the very large size

[chaser1]

And on a different note, lets for the moment assume that this system were to strengthen to become the first named storm of the Atlantic season, then within days this early June storm strengthens into a hurricane, and ultimately making landfall somewhere on the Florida coastline thus ending "that" particular drought. While that certainly is no guarantee of ongoing or future conditions for the tropics or even the far Western Atlantic..... ya think that'll get a lot of people's attention and might result in a number of forecasts to be changed?

Cycloneye?? Your 2014 Atlantic Season Poll still open?

[cycloneye]

And on a different note, lets for the moment assume that this system were to strengthen to become the first named storm of the Atlantic season, then within days this early June storm strengthens into a hurricane, and ultimately making landfall somewhere on the Florida coastline thus ending "that" particular drought. While that certainly is no guarantee of ongoing or future conditions for the tropics or even the far Western Atlantic..... ya think that'll get a lot of people's attention and might result in a number of forecasts to be changed?

Cycloneye?? Your 2014 Atlantic Season Poll still open?

Time is running out as poll closes on May 31rst at Midnight EDT.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=116252&start=0

[chaser1]

would be a major surge threat given the very large size

Yeah it could be - big time! Strength aside, that W. Florida coast could be a mess with something like this moving due north or NNE and that close to the coast; throw in the potential for slow forward motion and this could develop into quite a flooding event - coastline and inland.

[chaser1]

Been a while since these boards have had much speculation and banter regarding a tropical storm (real or modeled). Given the lack of interest caused by last year plus the anticipated "Mother of All El Nino's" most who typically check in for updates or those who post, have likely not even bothered to check out the present GFS "Tarot card" reading. Will be very curious to see if this feature is maintained by their respective models (FIM and GFS) for even the next 48-72 hours. I think I recall that even the few times last year where one or two models tried to latch onto a system and develop it in the long range, most models quite quickly dropped the storm it was trying to develop. The only thing about this long term model projection that I am pretty confident of..... is that whatever does (or doesn't) develop out of all this, is likely to look nothing like or be nowhere near what the maps are projecting. My guess is that the whole monsoonal low doesn't actually move into the Atlantic basin as one large system, but that it remains largely spread over both basins, is a bit further west, and perhaps spins off a depression or T.S. in the B.O.C. and moves into Mexico or threatens S. Texas. No science to support that, certainly no present steering to support that, just a thought.

[ronjon]

Yeah its more likely not to develop given the long range. But probably some sort of monsoon gyre will eventually get going. Most likley these systems transition over to the East Pac but given the GFS' persistence, some early season development at least hinted at.

[johngaltfla]

Great. Just get the storm over with and don't delay my flight into the Caribbean several weeks from now. We need a Tropical Storm like a hole in the head since we are 5.2" over our annual precip rate now. A TS would be a disaster for SW Florida, especially in Sarasota and Manatee counties.

[Hurricaneman]

The 18zGFS still shows something forming in the Caribbean and becoming strong just off the east coast, the only thing is this is in fantasy range and if somehow it doesn't disappear in later runs may it be something to watch

[chaser1]

The 18zGFS still shows something forming in the Caribbean and becoming strong just off the east coast, the only thing is this is in fantasy range and if somehow it doesn't disappear in later runs may it be something to watch

and suddenly.... "exit right", LOL. West Florida folks, I wouldn't rush out and start buying sand bags quite yet. Which is why the conjecture is entertaining, but really cannot - shouldn't be any reason for anticipating actual events to unfold. That's not to say that there cannot be any validity to the long range. Perhaps as the forecasted time range comes closer, models might again start zeroing in on a W. Caribbean/E. Gulf threat once more. There's just no history this year to even know if overall conditions truly exist or are favorable for tropical development, much less whether credence should be placed on any one model more than another given each of their inherent tendencies to over/under analyze all of the subtle atmospheric variables that will ultimately dictate whether tropical development might even be viable 1 to 2 weeks out. The only known factor is simply that all of those subtle variables are not in place right now - but then again, it's only May 23rd.

[cycloneye]

GFS continues with it but still above 200 hours. At 252 hours.