Texas Spring-2014

[Ntxw]

Can we call it the El Nino Express?



"...The former is supported by any remnant suppressed MJO phase, while both are supported by excellent agreement among dynamical tools. Enhanced convection is favored over the above-normal SSTs is the far eastern Pacific, while enhanced convection over the southwestern portion of Mexico is expected to extend northward into the south-central U.S. This convection is likely related to an atmospheric Kelvin wave, while the extratropical circulation is expected to be favorable for northward transport of moisture. "

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ghazards/

[dhweather]

On KRLD this morning, they were talking about the North Texas Municipal Water District, and that they have extended stage 3 through September, and if it doesn't rain, they will engage stage 4 - no watering of your yard.

[aggiecutter]

WPC says beneficial rains for the northern third of the state early next week:

[gboudx]

On KRLD this morning, they were talking about the North Texas Municipal Water District, and that they have extended stage 3 through September, and if it doesn't rain, they will engage stage 4 - no watering of your yard.

"They" should make it mandatory that any new residential sprinkler systems have rain sensors. And also that commercial and government systems be updated with rain sensors. So many times I'll see sprinklers for businesses running when it's raining, or the day after rain. Such a waste.

[JDawg512]

I really hope the Austin area gets more rain than what the model is showing.

[aggiecutter]

Feast or Famine for the Panhandle:

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
TXC011-065-220330-
/O.NEW.KAMA.FF.W.0001.140521T2324Z-140522T0330Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
624 PM CDT WED MAY 21 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AMARILLO HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
ARMSTRONG COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS...
SOUTHERN CARSON COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1030 PM CDT

* AT 624 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF CLAUDE.
VERY HEAVY RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER PARTS OF THE WARNED AREA IN THE
PAST 2 HOURS WITH ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED. FLASH FLOODING IS
LIKELY TO OCCUR. WHILE PRECIPITATION MAY TAPER OFF IN SOME AREAS
DURING THE WARNING PERIOD...IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR ANY HIGH
WATER TO RUNOFF.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
PANHANDLE... CLAUDE... GROOM...
GOODNIGHT...

[weatherdude1108]

Please say it isn't so. My heart just dropped with the last part of this discussion.

"PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CDT WED MAY 21 2014/

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE
ROCKIES...WITH VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EJECTING OUT OF IT.
EVEN THOUGH THERE WILL BE RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. PW WILL INCREASE...BUT NOT REACH TWO STANDARD
DEVIATIONS OR HIGHER (A CRITICAL THRESHOLD VALUE FOR HEAVY RAIN)
EXCEPT FOR SOME BRIEF PERIODS ALONG THE SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE
PLAINS...AND A SEPARATE AREA ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN
COASTAL PLAINS. GIVEN THE PW...LACK OF A LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARY...AND
THE GENERAL RAGGED AND WEAK NATURE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...
KEPT POPS AND QPF BELOW MODEL PROJECTIONS. SOME LOCATIONS ALONG
THE SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE MIGHT GET ONE INCH OF RAIN OVER THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS...BUT MANY OTHER PLACES A QUARTER INCH OR LESS...AND
SOME NONE AT ALL. ONCE THE LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA...LOOK FOR HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS TO BECOME ESTABLISHED AS
THE SEASONAL SUBTROPICAL HIGH LOOKS TO GET ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA."

[Ntxw]

Please say it isn't so. My heart just dropped with the last part of this discussion.

Don't feel too bad yet. That's still a 7-10 day forecast away, there is an incoming trof again on the west coast after the ridge they don't talk about. It is almost June, that time again when we start looking at heat. It's been a merciful May so far regarding heat.

[Ntxw]

It's not likely to occur a repeat, the same pattern does not produce the same result. But with convection out west one has think of severe weather probabilities. Last May we saw this similar kind of vigorous system over perform out of nowhere and produce a localized tornado outbreak with an EF3 and EF4.





If you get the right boundaries set up at the right times look out.

[dhweather]

I failed to mention that Witchita Falls is in STAGE 5 - I think that means you can take a bath and brush your teeth, and not much else. Hopefully those folks get copious amounts of rain this weekend.

[dhweather]

Some samples of what Stage 5 drought catastrophe water restrictions are:

Stage 5: Drought Catastrophe Restrictions and Requirements
Irrigation
(Watering)
Public and Private Golf Courses
ii. It shall be unlawful to irrigate any and all vegetated landscape areas on the golf
course including greens, tee boxes, fairways,
roughs, trees, shrubs, etc. The Golf
Courses will be allowed to utilize the remaining water within their pond system, as they
see fit; but, will not be allowed to refill the ponds from the City system, while in a Stage
5 Drought Disaster.


Stage 5: Drought Catastrophe Restrictions and Requirements
Irrigation
(Watering)
i. Irrigation Prohibited. It shall be unlawful to utilize any type of irrigation using potable
water produced by the City of Wichita Falls that is distributed through the
City’s distribution system on any day at any time. This restriction includes all forms of
irrigation, including, spray, bubbler, drip, hand-watering, etc.

ii. Public and Private Golf Courses. It shall be unlawful to irrigate any and all vegetated
landscape areas on the golf course including greens, tee boxes, fairways, roughs, trees,
shrubs, etc. The Golf Courses will be allowed to utilize the remaining water within their
pond system, as they see fit; but, will not be allowed to refill the ponds from the C
ity system, while in a Stage 5 Drought Disaster.

iii. Nursery Plant Stock. Nursery Plant Stock is exempt from the irrigation and landscape
watering restrictions of this subsection.

[dhweather]

Looking good for the panhandle, per the GFS and a Maue tweet:

[Ntxw]

This would answer a lot of prayers and essentially barrage drought in the western half of the state if it came true. When was the last time they saw a map like this for that region?

[dhweather]

Very interesting AFD


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
336 PM CDT THU MAY 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW
MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO WILL ROTATE NORTHEAST INTO TEXAS.
THIS SHORTWAVE IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO...FAR WEST
TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO. MOST OF THIS CONVECTION WILL STRUGGLE TO
MOVE EASTWARD DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW...AND THUS WILL
REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA TONIGHT.

HOWEVER THE CONVECTION WILL INJECT MOISTURE INTO THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS AND RESULT IN A PLUME OF SATURATED AIR ALOFT THAT WILL
TRACK EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN CWA BY MORNING. IN ADDITION TO
THIS MOISTURE...TONIGHT/S CONVECTION WILL ALSO ENHANCE THE
VORTICITY WITHIN THIS LAYER. TECHNICALLY THE RELEASE OF LATENT
HEAT VIA CONVECTION ALWAYS INCREASES VORTICITY...BUT MOST OF THE
TIME THIS VORTICITY IS QUICKLY SHEARED APART BY THE SYNOPTIC
SYSTEM WHICH CREATED THE CONVECTION IN THE FIRST PLACE. HOWEVER IN
LATE SPRING AND SUMMER WHEN SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS ARE WEAKER AND HAVE
LIGHTER WIND FIELDS...THIS CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORTICITY MAXIMA
CAN HOLD TOGETHER FOR MANY HOURS BEYOND THE DEATH OF THE PARENT
CONVECTION. IF THIS VORTICITY IS STRONG ENOUGH...IT WILL SHOW UP
AS MESOSCALE SWIRLS OR VORTICES WE CAN SEE ON SATELLITE CALLED A
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX OR MCV. IT IS POSSIBLE WE WILL SEE ONE
OR TWO OF THESE TOMORROW ON SATELLITE...BUT EVEN IF WE CANT...WE
DO EXPECT THE ENHANCED VORTICITY TO BE NESTED WITHIN THIS MOISTURE
PLUME TO AID IN LIFTING OF THE AIR.

FOR THE FRIDAY FORECAST HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA AS DENSE MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE LIKELY WITH THIS ARRIVING
MOISTURE PLUME. THIS MEANS HIGHS WILL BE COOLER...ESPECIALLY IN
THE WESTERN ZONES. HAVE ALSO ADDED A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A
FEW STORMS TO AREAS WEST OF I-35...AND IT IS POSSIBLE A FEW
SPRINKLES MAY SPILL EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ZONES BY AFTERNOON.
SINCE MOST OF THE MOISTURE IS IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS WHERE LAPSE
RATES ARE MOIST ADIABATIC...INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED...AND SOME
OF THE PRECIP MAY EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. SHOWERS
SHOULD BE THE PREDOMINANT MODE...BUT A FEW STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION REMAINING TO OUR
WEST AND NORTHWEST AHEAD OF THE SLOW EASTWARD MOVING UPPER LEVEL
LOW. LIGHT TO MODERATE S/SE WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH LOWS IN THE
MID-UPPER 60S AND HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 80S. WILL KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR NORTHWEST ZONES DURING THIS PERIOD AS SOME
ACTIVITY MAY SKIRT THIS AREA BEFORE HEADING INTO OKLAHOMA.

IT IS BECOMING APPARENT THAT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS GOING TO BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR QUITE A BIT OF RAINFALL SOMEWHERE IN THE REGION.
THIS HEAVY RAIN MAY NOT IMPACT OUR CWA DIRECTLY...THAT ALL DEPENDS
ON THE ULTIMATE TRACK...SPEED AND EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LOW.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIVERGE WITH THIS FEATURE AS FORECAST
TIME INCREASES...BUT THERE IS AT LEAST GOOD CONSISTENCY NOW ON THE
LOW TAKING A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK THROUGH OKLAHOMA MONDAY-TUESDAY.

THIS MEANS CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT FROM THE WEST. STORMS WILL LIKELY FIRE CLOSE TO THE
WESTERN CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...CLOSE ENOUGH TO TRACK INTO THE NW
HALF OF THE CWA SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES A
LITTLE FARTHER EAST BY MONDAY...THESE STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP WITHIN
THE CWA MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS WE WILL BE IN A FAVORABLE REGION
OF UPPER LEVEL LIFT AND RICH GULF MOISTURE. WHILE SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE...SOME DISORGANIZED THREAT OF
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE WARMEST PARTS OF THE
DAY. HOWEVER...THE INCREASED RAIN AND CLOUDS WILL TEND TO KEEP
HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...LIMITING CAPE VALUES. THE
HIGHEST RAIN AMOUNTS THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE WEST AND NORTHWEST
OF THE CWA. HOWEVER WITH WIND PROFILES DISPLAYING
ORGANIZATION...CONVECTION WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO
COMPLEXES THAT MAY LEAD TO CELL TRAINING AND LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS
OF RAIN IN OUR AREA. THIS IS MOST LIKELY OVER THE NORTHWEST CWA
SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THE NORTHERN CWA MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE FATE
OF THE UPPER LOW. WHAT WE ARE SEEING IN THE MODEL DATA TODAY IS
REALLY QUITE INTERESTING. ALL MODELS ARE INDICATING A TRANSITION
OF THIS COLD-CORE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO A WARM-CORE SYSTEM. IN
SIMPLISTIC TERMS...THIS MEANS THAT THE REPEATED ROUNDS OF
CONVECTION OVER SEVERAL DAYS RELEASE SO MUCH HEAT INTO THE
ATMOSPHERE THAT A BUBBLE OF WARM AIR AND HIGH VORTICITY BUILDS UP
IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THESE WARM-CORE SYSTEMS
ARE ESSENTIALLY WHAT TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE...A LOW AND MID LEVEL
CYCLONE LOCATED BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE. OBVIOUSLY
WHEN THESE WARM CORE CYCLONES ARE OVER LAND...THERE IS NO WARM
WATER...AND THUS NOT ENOUGH HEAT ENERGY TO GENERATE A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE CENTER AND STRONG SURFACE WINDS. BUT AS LONG AS THERE IS
SOME SUPPLY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE AVAILABLE...THESE SYSTEMS CAN
PRODUCE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL AND FLOODING RISKS...OFTEN
AT NIGHT. THE STEERING OF THESE SYSTEMS ARE SIMILAR TO TROPICAL
CYCLONES...AND ANY WIND SHEAR WILL DESTROY THEM VERY QUICKLY.

MODEL GUIDANCE ACTUALLY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL 200MB HIGH BUILDING
IN OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL US BY MIDWEEK AND THUS THE SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...AND ALSO CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
GULF FOR A SUPPLY OF RICH MOISTURE. IN FACT IT APPEARS THAT THE
MAIN UNCERTAINTIES WITH THIS SYSTEM IS WHEN WILL IT MAKE ITS
TRANSITION TO WARM-CORE AND BEGIN BEHAVING LIKE A REMNANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE...AND WHERE IT WILL GO. THE GFS SHOWS THE WARM-CORE
TRANSITION TAKING PLACE FIRST...AND THAT EXPLAINS WHY IT IS THE
FIRST TO DROP THE LOW SOUTH AND INTO TEXAS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THE NOGAPS HAS THE LOW DROPPING INTO LOUISIANA. THE
CANADIAN/UKMET/ECMWF SHOW THE LOW STALLING OVER ARKANSAS. AGAIN
THIS SYSTEM IS GOING TO BE RESPONSIBLE FOR SOMEONE GETTING WAY TOO
MUCH RAIN TOO FAST...AND JUST LIKE A TROPICAL SYSTEM IT IS JUST
TOO HARD TO PREDICT WHERE IT IS GOING TO BE 5 TO 10 DAYS FROM NOW.
NOT ONLY IS ITS PATH DEPENDENT ON SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL STEERING
FEATURES...BUT ALSO ON THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION THE SYSTEM
GENERATES WHICH DETERMINES WHEN IT MAKES ITS WARM-CORE TRANSITION.
SO FOR THE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FORECAST...WILL KEEP SOME LOW
POPS GOING IN THE EASTERN ZONES...AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH.

TR.92

[TarrantWx]

Very interesting discussion indeed. Isn't a warm core low what caused the rains and flooding in the Summer of 2007?

[Ntxw]

Very interesting discussion indeed. Isn't a warm core low what caused the rains and flooding in the Summer of 2007?

Yes it is, as was 2004 and 1997.

[aggiecutter]

THE NOGAPS HAS THE LOW DROPPING INTO LOUISIANA. THE
CANADIAN/UKMET/ECMWF SHOW THE LOW STALLING OVER ARKANSAS. AGAIN
THIS SYSTEM IS GOING TO BE RESPONSIBLE FOR SOMEONE GETTING WAY TOO
MUCH RAIN TOO FAST..

This is the same scenario that caused the flash flooding at Camp Albert Pike in Arkansas a few years ago.

[Ntxw]

TD 01E has formed in the EPAC. We're going to draw copious amounts of moisture from it.



May strengthen to a tropical storm and move WNW very slowly. Regardless the hose has been set

[hriverajr]

Praying hard here in Del, Rio TX... looks like we have a shot at rain tonight.

[Ntxw]

Nowcast, some very happy folks counting their blessings in the Panhandle