ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[xtyphooncyclonex]

It's starting to appear that a moderate El Nino is the most likely outcome for this year. Most strong El Ninos in history have really ramped up starting in May, something we're not seeing. The amount of forcing does not match years like 1997-98 or 1982-83.

We are. No other El Niño had +3ºC anomalies surfacing in May except 1997, and massive warming in Niño 1+2 starting to rapidly spread eastwards. Note that the MJO too hasn't arrived yet, so which may be the reason why SOI is up. SOI now is not rising as fast as the last strong El Niño 2009, which had a monthly SOI -13/14 for May then +13/14 the next month. But why compare with 1982 and 1997? Better to compare it with 1972, although no other EL NIÑO developed like the one now since 1997.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Daily Anomalies from Tropical Tidbits

Niño 1+2: +1.2
Niño 3: +0.6
Niño 3.4: +0.6
Niño 4: +0.9

I rounded it off already. Anomalies in the website may be slightly lower or higher.

[Yellow Evan]

Daily Anomalies from Tropical Tidbits

Niño 1+2: +1.2
Niño 3: +0.6
Niño 3.4: +0.6
Niño 4: +0.9

I rounded it off already. Anomalies in the website may be slightly lower or higher.

It was down to like 0.3C earlier today. EPSI has also been acting strange as of late. I have a feeling the buoys are not working properly.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Daily Anomalies from Tropical Tidbits

Niño 1+2: +1.2
Niño 3: +0.6
Niño 3.4: +0.6
Niño 4: +0.9

I rounded it off already. Anomalies in the website may be slightly lower or higher.

It was down to like 0.3C earlier today. EPSI has also been acting strange as of late. I have a feeling the buoys are not working properly.

Weird. But IMO the 0.6 is more realistic. Warming in all ENSO regions instead of a blip going down. More sustained warming now.

[Ntxw]

As mentioned before, this is what an oncoming El Nino looks like. It's not some discombobulated like the recent Nino's with mixed SST's. It's uniformly warm across the equatorial Pacific with rising anoms near SA spreading westward. It doesn't get much more better defined, sure it could be better at record levels like 1997 but hey it's no slouch.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

As mentioned before, this is what an oncoming El Nino looks like. It's not some discombobulated like the recent Nino's with mixed SST's. It's uniformly warm across the equatorial Pacific with rising anoms near SA spreading westward. It doesn't get much more better defined, sure it could be better at record levels like 1997 but hey it's no slouch.

http://i62.tinypic.com/2q0sosj.png

We will see it warm even more when the MJO arrives.

[Yellow Evan]

We could go a while w/o MJO though.



Has it coming back in July, though that tends to be a stale time for El Nino.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Daily Anomalies from Tropical Tidbits

Niño 1+2: +1.2
Niño 3: +0.6
Niño 3.4: +0.6
Niño 4: +0.9

I rounded it off already. Anomalies in the website may be slightly lower or higher.

It was down to like 0.3C earlier today. EPSI has also been acting strange as of late. I have a feeling the buoys are not working properly.

There could really be a problem with the buoys. Graphic stated +0.3 and switches to +0.6 then +0.4..... Also in the TAO graphics the buoys show 2 warm subsurface pools and the surfaces pics are glitchy.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Highest daily reading of Niño 1+2 since 2012? Currently at +1.449.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

TS Amanda formed in the EPac. Forecast to intensify into a hurricane. Probably this would enhance westerlies over the eastern Equatorial Pacific.

[cycloneye]

Dr Jeff Masters in an interview talks about what would occur with the North Atlantic season if El Nino is traditional or Modoki. June will be a very key month to see how ENSO will do as the articule cites.

Weather Underground's Jeff Masters said that there is about an 80 percent likelihood that the El Niño will occur this summer. But there is some uncertainty whether it could form over the central Pacific in the vicinity of the Hawaiian Islands or in the eastern Pacific off the west coast of South America.

Where the El Niño forms could determine how much it affects the Atlantic hurricane season, Masters said.

If the El Niño forms in the eastern Pacific, it is more likely to suppress hurricane formation in the Atlantic, Masters said. But if it forms in the central Pacific, it could have less influence on the Atlantic hurricane season.

Masters noted that an El Niño formed over the central Pacific in 2004. That summer saw four powerful hurricanes strike Florida between August and September. He added that Pacific trade winds—prevailing winds that blow west—could determine where the El Niño forms. If the trade winds blow strongly, they could push the El Niño more to the west, and that might lessen the impact on the Atlantic hurricane season.

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news ... picks=true

[Kingarabian]

Trade winds have been missing in action for quite some time now.

[Cyclenall]

I have no idea why Dr.Jeff Masters is just now talking about the 2 different types of El Nino when it was clear months ago this would not be a Modoki El Nino or at least the chances are rapidly diminishing and are now almost irreverent.

[AJC3]

I have no idea why Dr.Jeff Masters is just now talking about the 2 different types of El Nino when it was clear months ago this would not be a Modoki El Nino or at least the chances are rapidly diminishing and are now almost irreverent.

This.

To me the question since early this year has been whether this would be moderate or strong, not traditional or west based (Modoki).

[Ntxw]

Agree the value has always been in the strength of the full basin Nino (as of now the strongest in the eastern regions) not what type. It's looking impressive. Been such a long time we've seen something like this, at least since 2009 which started to get the "Nino look" about a month later.





Mid June 09

[dexterlabio]

I'm just curious... Do all of the strong Nino's in the past become traditional east -based or do some of them turn to be Modoki? And does the PDO affect the type of a developing El Nino?

And I couldn't agree more with the above posts... the only question left to be answered is how strong this event will be. I think the type of this El Nino is already obvious...unless it makes a similar turn in 2009.

[Ntxw]

I'm just curious... Do all of the strong Nino's in the past become traditional east -based or do some of them turn to be Modoki? And does the PDO affect the type of a developing El Nino?

And I couldn't agree more with the above posts... the only question left to be answered is how strong this event will be. I think the type of this El Nino is already obvious...unless it makes a similar turn in 2009.

To understand this, we have to first think about what an El Nino is. Ignore the anomalies for a moment and see how the SST's work. In El Nino the waters is pushing to the east into a region (CPAC and EPAC) that normally has cooler waters #climo. As it does the anomaly grows warmer (the SST's aren't actually warmer than the wpac) as it moves into this normally cooler water. When we see the anomalies spreading west, it's not actually spreading west it's water moving east but the anomaly grows stronger the closer it gets to SA because waters there are normally colder therefore a bigger anomaly.

With the above logic in mind a traditional east based El Nino has dramatic warm waters to the east simply because you have even more warm water pushing from the west to east all the way to SA, flattening the thermocline across the entire EQ Pacific thus typically they are the bigger, stronger El Nino's. The weaker El Nino's have a tendency to become modoki because the push is not quite as good so it only makes it partially thus you get a Modoki.

[Yellow Evan]

I'm just curious... Do all of the strong Nino's in the past become traditional east -based or do some of them turn to be Modoki? And does the PDO affect the type of a developing El Nino?

And I couldn't agree more with the above posts... the only question left to be answered is how strong this event will be. I think the type of this El Nino is already obvious...unless it makes a similar turn in 2009.

Yes, and +PDO favors El Nino.

[SeGaBob]

Will Amanda in the EPAC help this El Nino along?

[xtyphooncyclonex]

In the TAO/TRITON graphic, it shows a merge of the 2 warm pools and the other one having +6°C anomalies intensifying.