ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Steve820]

Looks like this El Nino could become pretty strong. We might get a very active EPac and inactive Atlantic this year because of this. Well, let's just sit and watch as we witness this El Nino strengthening!

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Looks like this El Nino could become pretty strong. We might get a very active EPac and inactive Atlantic this year because of this. Well, let's just sit and watch as we witness this El Nino strengthening!

In our basin WPac, it gets enhanced and be more active. Although El NIÑO is kinda horrible for us. We get a lasting drought which leads the dams and the hydroelectric plants to fail, thus causing power outages and water shortages throughout the country, not only the country but parts of the continent.

We'll you're lucky that El Niño events relieve you guys in the Pacific NW from that 3 year drought.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Will Amanda in the EPAC help this El Nino along?

It will produce westerlies which promote warming over the equatorial Pacific.

As of now in the daily anomalies, Niño 3 and 3.4 warmed up to around +0.7°C which indicates massive and rapid warming. The CPC should increase the anomalies in all Niño regions (not really region 4) and Niño 1+2 is having sustained moderate values already.

[Alyono]

Will Amanda in the EPAC help this El Nino along?

It will produce westerlies which promote warming over the equatorial Pacific.

As of now in the daily anomalies, Niño 3 and 3.4 warmed up to around +0.7°C which indicates massive and rapid warming. The CPC should increase the anomalies in all Niño regions (not really region 4) and Niño 1+2 is having sustained moderate values already.

what?

How will an EPAC TC help el niño? For one, its not going to trigger a WWB as those come from the CPAC or the WPAC and affect the entire basin. This wont enhance el niño. If it would, every EPAC TC would usher in a warming

[euro6208]

wow those pictures from Ntxw clearly shows some dramatic change. It is indeed warming faster.

Classic el nino here but what strength? we will find out.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Will Amanda in the EPAC help this El Nino along?

It will produce westerlies which promote warming over the equatorial Pacific.

As of now in the daily anomalies, Niño 3 and 3.4 warmed up to around +0.7°C which indicates massive and rapid warming. The CPC should increase the anomalies in all Niño regions (not really region 4) and Niño 1+2 is having sustained moderate values already.

what?

How will an EPAC TC help el niño? For one, its not going to trigger a WWB as those come from the CPAC or the WPAC and affect the entire basin. This wont enhance el niño. If it would, every EPAC TC would usher in a warming

Okay sorry I am not an expert at these stuff. I am solely an amateur and a minor. I am new to tracking El Niños. Thanks though for the correction.

[Kingarabian]

Okay sorry I am not an expert at these stuff. I am solely an amateur and a minor. I am new to tracking El Niños. Thanks though for the correction.

Just keep in mind everything moves from West to East.

[euro6208]

I understand that all of this warm water in the first place originated from the Western Pacific but is this warm water already established deep below the WPac and surfaces and moves east?

Depth 26 covers a large area to the dateline every year. Are these the warm waters that rest deep below the surface like a dormant volcano that suddenly surfaces and moves east? if not, where do they come from?

Hope my question is clear

[xtyphooncyclonex]

For entertainment purposes only.
More CFSv2 ensemble members are shifting towards an intensity above +2.0°C for the El Niño.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Major glitch in the current Tropical Tidbits readings on Niño regions. Probably also some buoys not working and responding properly.

[stormkite]

Some of you may find this link interesting worth a look anyway.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/tsg/index.php

Global Oceanographic and Meteorological Observations in the GTS
Weekly update of global locations of oceanographic and meteorological observations collected in the Global Telecommunication System (GTS). (Google Earth must be installed in your computer

Last on the kmz download list

[cycloneye]

Ntxw,I expect CPC going up at the Mondays Weekly update. (Between +0.5C and +0.6C) Do you see it that way too?

[Ntxw]

Ntxw,I expect CPC going up at the Mondays Weekly update. (Between +0.5C and +0.6C) Do you see it that way too?

All the data seems to agree, of course I'm not certain what they use anymore

Monday is a holiday though (memorial day), we may have to wait till Tuesday

[cycloneye]

Ntxw,I expect CPC going up at the Mondays Weekly update. (Between +0.5C and +0.6C) Do you see it that way too?

All the data seems to agree, of course I'm not certain what they use anymore

Monday is a holiday though (memorial day), we may have to wait till Tuesday

Yes,one more day.

[SeGaBob]

Thanks for the earlier answers to my question... I don't know much about el ninos so I figured I'd ask.

[Kingarabian]

Some people were saying that the reason for last weeks drop, was because of the buoys not working.

[euro6208]

I understand that all of this warm water in the first place originated from the Western Pacific but is this warm water already established deep below the WPac and surfaces and moves east?

Depth 26 covers a large area to the dateline every year. Are these the warm waters that rest deep below the surface like a dormant volcano that suddenly surfaces and moves east? if not, where do they come from?

Hope my question is clear

Does anyone know?

[Ntxw]

I understand that all of this warm water in the first place originated from the Western Pacific but is this warm water already established deep below the WPac and surfaces and moves east?

Depth 26 covers a large area to the dateline every year. Are these the warm waters that rest deep below the surface like a dormant volcano that suddenly surfaces and moves east? if not, where do they come from?

Hope my question is clear

Does anyone know?

It's all about winds and the thermocline. Normally there are trade winds across the Pacific from east to west, this is a base state (or neutral) that rules the majority of the time with La Nina being a more amplified version. Warm water is shoved in the WPAC and then is down-welled building it up, cool waters up-well off SA think of it as one big current loop with the trade winds at the surface helping. When you flip the trades and go west to east flow (WWB) the warm water is then unleashed and pushed back east, thus El Nino.

[Ntxw]

Best word to describe the below image, El Nino

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Best word to describe the below image, El Nino

If it lasts, IMO, we could see a borderline super El Niño this year.