2014 EPAC Season

[Cyclenall]

This is the most the have ever predicted since 2003, when they started with this.

Wow, its a miracle. Its only the 2nd time they have not forecast below normal activity for the Epac!

-One dreaded pinhole eye but luckily far out at sea

That one speical advisory from October 2005 still re-vibrates through time with this word phrase.

-Two threatens to move into the Caribbean while developing

[Yellow Evan]

Wow, its a miracle. Its only the 2nd time they have not forecast below normal activity for the Epac!

I believe it's the third, after 2009 and 2012.

[Steve820]

Wow, this season could get very active. With Amanda now having a small shot at major status (although NHC takes it up to Cat. 2), things could get very interesting in the coming months. So, let's get excited!!!

[cycloneye]

How many times in the past a hurricane formed in May? May of 2014 joins those.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Amanda is the most impressive May storm I have ever followed. If this intensifies to major hurricane, I would be in UTTER SHOCK. This time last year, we saw a hurricane in May, though it was not as impressive and shocking as the one this year, Amanda.

[Yellow Evan]

How many times in the past a hurricane formed in May? May of 2014 joins those.

Off the top of my head:
1970 (Adele)
1971 (Agatha)
1978 (Aletta)
1983 (Adolph)
1984 (Boris)
1990 (Alma)
2000 (Aletta)
2001 (Adolph)
2002 (Alma)
2005 (Adrian)
2012 (Bud)
2013 (Barbara)
2014 (Amanda)
So, there's been at least 13 systems since 1966 13/58 is a little under one every four years. This is the first 3 year May hurricane streak since 2000-2002, and second overall

[Ntxw]

So which model takes the prize for Amanda? If any at all?

[Yellow Evan]

So which model takes the prize for Amanda? If any at all?

GFS for sure. For a while, they were the only ones that showed it. But it did drop it due to MJO convection feedback issues when it started organizing.

[cycloneye]

Searching the net I found a very detailed site that has plenty of information about past years in EPAC.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/TC_Book_Epa ... _hires.pdf

[Yellow Evan]

GFS shows lower than normal pressure in June



Also shows a Kelvin wave



MJO arrives at the end of June



It'll be there through July

[SeGaBob]

I know this basin does not concern me(the Atlantic does)...but I will guess 17/10/6 for this season here.

[Ntxw]

EPAC gets it's first Major Hurricane, Amanda.

[cycloneye]

What about the fast start of 1/1/1?

[Yellow Evan]

What about the fast start of 1/1/1?

First since 2011. And second since 2002 (that a season started 1/1/1).

[Kingarabian]

Interested to see what the models show for the next few days.

[Ntxw]

Interested to see what the models show for the next few days.

Definitely worth watching. The MJO is incoherent but this semi permanent Gulf of Tehuantepec convection has been interesting. Nice Kelvin wave probably assisted Amanda and this region without the MJO and given the warming of ENSO I would not be surprised at more activity down the line.

From last week

Also Atmospheric Kelvin waves, convectively coupled. MJO is incohorent but these KW's are quite active. One is moving into the CPAC from the WPAC and eventually EPAC.

[Yellow Evan]

Interested to see what the models show for the next few days.

I don't think they show anything. It's too close to Amanda for one, and even then, has to deal with cold SST upwelling from Amanda.

[Kingarabian]

Interested to see what the models show for the next few days.

Definitely worth watching. The MJO is incoherent but this semi permanent Gulf of Tehuantepec convection has been interesting. Nice Kelvin wave probably assisted Amanda and this region without the MJO and given the warming of ENSO I would not be surprised at more activity down the line.

From last week

Also Atmospheric Kelvin waves, convectively coupled. MJO is incohorent but these KW's are quite active. One is moving into the CPAC from the WPAC and eventually EPAC.

Spot on. Still need to learn about those. When we think of Kelvin waves, we always think of the ones associated with the MJO.

[Yellow Evan]

Interested to see what the models show for the next few days.

Definitely worth watching. The MJO is incoherent but this semi permanent Gulf of Tehuantepec convection has been interesting. Nice Kelvin wave probably assisted Amanda and this region without the MJO and given the warming of ENSO I would not be surprised at more activity down the line.

From last week

Also Atmospheric Kelvin waves, convectively coupled. MJO is incohorent but these KW's are quite active. One is moving into the CPAC from the WPAC and eventually EPAC.

Spot on. Still need to learn about those. When we think of Kelvin waves, we always think of the ones associated with the MJO.

I think it passed already. If I had to make a guess, it helped spawn Amanda. I mentioned earlier the next KW comes in early June per the CFS.

[Cyclenall]

My 2014 North Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season Prediction is as follows:

*Cut*

These are some point form notes on my thoughts for this season:

- At least one category 5 hurricane will form
- A major hurricane will form before June 20

Already got a point . Will the point above it come to pass with Hurricane Amanda too? It would be unprecedented in so many ways if so!