2014 EPAC Season

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Amanda intensifies into a category 4 hurricane, contributing 4.15 to the ACE of the EPac. The ACE is now 415% above the average, to date. In fact, it is even expected to further intensify to 125 knots, the strongest May EPac hurricane, only behind Adolph of 2001, which had winds of 130 knots. Let's see if Amanda surpasses Adolph.

[cycloneye]

2014 season has begun with a record breaking first system. IMO,this EPAC season may break a few records when it ends on November 30.

[Yellow Evan]

2014 season has begun with a record breaking first system. IMO,this EPAC season may break a few records when it ends on November 30.

I think we'll see quite a few, yea. Still, let's take this one at a time. Let's enjoy Amanda while it lasts before worrying about what's next.

[HurricaneRyan]

Amanda really has lived up to its powerful awesome name!

[cycloneye]

From the 8 AM PDT advisory a historic prospective.

Amanda is now the strongest May hurricane on record in the eastern
Pacific basin during the satellite era. If Amanda were to reach an
intensity of 140 kt, it would become the earliest category 5
hurricane on record, beating out Hurricane Ava of 1973.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Amanda really has lived up to its powerful awesome name!

This is better than a wimpy, Alma, which Amanda replaced. And the better thing is that Amanda is a powerful and impressive fishie whilst Alma, on the other side, was quite destructive and boring.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

From the 8 AM PDT advisory an historic prospective.

Amanda is now the strongest May hurricane on record in the eastern
Pacific basin during the satellite era. If Amanda were to reach an
intensity of 140 kt, it would become the earliest category 5
hurricane on record, beating out Hurricane Ava of 1973.

There is a good possibility for a category 5. No EWRC for Amanda as of now, and an EWRC hindered the intensification of a hurricane of a nearly similar hurricane Dora. SSTs are warming. This is just absolutely historic.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Yellow Evan]

Amanda really has lived up to its powerful awesome name!

This is better than a wimpy, Alma, which Amanda replaced. And the better thing is that Amanda is a powerful and impressive fishie whilst Alma, on the other side, was quite destructive and boring.

Alma 08 wasn't very destructive; Agatha and 11E were much worse. And it wasn't boring either. It was RI'ing right up until landfall. Alma 08 was similar to Barbara in the ATL, except it regenrated into Arthur in the ATL.

[Yellow Evan]

6z GFS showed this; however, 12z GFS dropped it.



Next storm should be around June 15th since there's gonna be a moisture surge around that time.



MJO arrives in late June



Stays there past the midsummer late July drought and past the first EPAC peak. Wow.

[hurricanes1234]

What is the website to get the model runs from? It appears that I have forgotten.

[Yellow Evan]

Next storm around 384 hours now. Does not 100% Confirm what I thought earlier what a spike in activity around June 10.

[Yellow Evan]

Not that this is 100% reliable, but it's worth noting for entertainment purposes:



CFS shows Boris. They also recognize a spike in activity soon, so make that model #2 to recognize this.



Storm looks powerful. Odv it’s very long range. I’m not even gonna mention what’s shown post 500+ hours.

[South Texas Storms]

What is the website to get the model runs from? It appears that I have forgotten.

Here you go:
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/

[cycloneye]

Basin ACE continues to rack up big units that for sure will help it cross the 100 mark with the expectation of a very active season loming.

[Kingarabian]

They had to pick the name Boris? No one is gonna take that name seriously.

[Kingarabian]

Lots of moisture.

[Yellow Evan]

Neither the Euro nor the GFS show anything major within the next 10 days. Boris may have to wait a bit.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

From a very anemic and weak season (excluding Raymond) and the ACE below-normal, here comes the season with an impressive start and during an El Niño.

[Yellow Evan]

TS from the CFS in a little over two weeks. Not that this is exactly reliable.

[cycloneye]

GFS shows a TS/Hurricane in less than 144 hours and is more closer to Mexico than Amanda was.