ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Daily FIXED SST Anomalies as of May 24th
Niño 1+2: +1.4ºC
Niño 3: +0.7ºC
Niño 3.4: +0.6ºC
Niño 4: +0.7ºC

The departures by CPC usually tend to be higher, as they average the daily anomalies in the past 7 days before the update. These Anomalies are unofficial.

This is kinda like a typical El Niño already. Those values in eastern Niño regions (1+2, 3) and Niño 3.4 are having a more steady warming.

[cycloneye]

Ntxw,will Amanda cause west winds as far south as the equator to warm even more Nino 1+2 and part of 3?

[Ntxw]

Ntxw,will Amanda cause west winds as far south as the equator to warm even more Nino 1+2 and part of 3?

I don't think so, from what I know. I would say Amanda has been a by product aided from ENSO. Nino 1+2 and 3 were already warming it probably helped in the background for favorable atmospheric conditions allowing Amanda to take off, and the warm spatial SST pattern, and entrance jet. The ocean ENSO has kind of been doing it's own thing.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Let's see in the next Monthly Update (on June) if the CPC will declared El Niño or not.

For tomorrow, I see that the next weekly departure for Niño 3.4 could be above or at +0.5ºC and it would be a sustained value already. Niño 1+2 may be close to or at strong Niño (above +1.5ºC). Niño 3 could be warmer and Niño 4 slightly cooler.

[NDG]

Looks like on this update by the CPC Nino 3.4 is back up again and so do all other regions, as expected.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Niño 3.4 back up to +0.5°C
Niño 1+2:+1.5°C
Niño 3:+0.7°C
Niño 3.4:+0.5°C
Niño 4:+0.8°C

[stormkite]

Daily SST suggests its now HOT HOT HOT.

[Ntxw]

Mid May



Latest

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I see the odds increasing for a declaration of El Niño by the CPC on June.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

ECMWF is forecasting anomalies of +1.5°C or higher by ASO while CFSv2 is for a moderate el Niño by the time. I guess that is for entertainment purposes only if it will not warm that fast.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

CPC 5/27/14 Update: Niño 1+2 up to +1.5ºC, Niño 3.4 up to +0.5ºC

Eastern Niño regions have some warming, mainly in Niño 1+2, which is now at strong El Niño threshold. Niño 3.4 is back up to El Niño threshold, at +0.5ºC. Equatorial Subsurface temps are +6ºC above normal, which have slightly weakened but are much above average. This is due to the upwelling phase of the Kelvin Wave.

To see the update, please click the hyperlink, which is the first paragraph, or click the link below.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

[cycloneye]

Here is the latest sub-surface update as of May 23rd and it looks like the large warm pool remains intact for the most part.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

The warm pool could grow larger if it surfaces 100% and another KW will arrive. It could lead us to a moderate-to-strong El Niño by SON. IMO, this could even intensify to a borderline super El Niño (measured by ONI) by NDJ. But remember, my opinions and thoughts are unofficial and tend to be bullish, so please read the disclaimer below.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the CPC/NOAA and BOM products.

[cycloneye]

Mixed things going on at the ENSO areas for now. Doing these ups and downs wont help to have a strong El Nino. The 1997-1998 very strong Super El Nino was always warming without doing these zigzags.









Split shows up at TAO.

[Ntxw]

The tao image looks questionable to me like a buoy error. That is an unrealistic drop in the span of less than 24 hours thats not seen before. It takes days for slight shiftss and weeks for something as dramatic as that.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

There is actually NO split at all as seen in other data. This is a buoy problem as ntxw has said. Meanwhile, Niño 1+2 continues to have massive warming, the daily data shows +1.7°C. All other El Niños including 1982 but not 1997 had zigzags. This is perfectly normal though. The daily data is actually for entertainment only. It's the weeklies that matter.



Here is a comparison between the current El Niño and those in 1997-98 & 1982-83. 1982 had a lot more zigzags like this year and unlike 1997. This is as of early-May 2014.

[CaliforniaResident]

Looks like we are already in a Nino and it may be declared next week.

[AJC3]

Looks like we are already in a Nino and it may be declared next week.

An El Nino won't be declared next week. CPC's operational definition for the onset of an El Nino is when the 3-month average equatorial SSTA in the EPAC-CPAC (ENSO region 3.4) exceeds +0.5C. Given the past and current conditions, coupled with the structure of the subsurface positive SSTA being more strongly east-based, If I'm reading the CPC time series correctly, we are, at the earliest, a month, perhaps as long as 6 to 8 weeks, away from this occurring.

[SFLcane]

Tweet from @FLClimateCenter Without additional westerly wind bursts, this #ElNino will fizzle....No westerlies since late April.



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Could possible mean a more active season.

[Ntxw]

WWB are not a necessity this late in the game. The damage has already been done as the base state of the Pacific (currents) have alreary been flipped, that is the main purpose of wwbs. Now its just the ebb and flow of feedback. WWB will be needed later in July and August for the next intraseasonal change.

Besides its going to take more than no El Nino to ramp up the Atlantic, AMO still reading negative and v. instability not favorable. My money is on the EPAC