EPAC: AMANDA - Post-Tropical

[Meow]

01E AMANDA 140527 0600 14.0N 112.1W EPAC 110 954
01E AMANDA 140527 0000 13.5N 111.9W EPAC 100 963
01E AMANDA 140526 1800 13.2N 111.8W EPAC 105 957

It did not weaken to a category 2 hurricane at 00Z.

[Yellow Evan]

Really don't know what to make of this system. Amanda is not gonna quit. I wondering when this is s gonna dissipate, since conditions are going to get slightly better in a couple days. If it can't die now, how is it going to in a few days?

[RL3AO]

ACE near 16. Quite impressive for the first storm of the year.

[CrazyC83]

It probably was a Cat 4 once again at 0000Z to 0600Z in that timeframe. I'm thinking the final BT will have 115 kt at one of those points, probably around 0300Z. That came out of nowhere - we all thought Amanda would collapse and die fast.

[supercane4867]

Likely a TS right now

[Spin]

Why? It might look like a TS, but that does not imply it is one.

[Kingarabian]

Shear has ramped up.

[supercane4867]

Why? It might look like a TS, but that does not imply it is one.

The eyewall totally collapsed hours ago

[Kingarabian]

It was fun, Amanda.

[Kingarabian]

Baja California and Mexico dodged a bullet here. If this was later in July/August, it could've easily had a Jimena type track.

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[Meow]

Amanda is severely affected by vertical wind shear now. Its convection is being sheared to the south side.

[RL3AO]

Why? It might look like a TS, but that does not imply it is one.

The eyewall totally collapsed hours ago

Its clearly weakening and quickly, but its hard to go from a cat 3 to a TS in four hours unless its crossing a mountain. Hard to dissipate energy that quickly over open water.

[Meow]

Its clearly weakening and quickly, but its hard to go from a cat 3 to a TS in four hours unless its crossing a mountain. Hard to dissipate energy that quickly over open water.

EP, 01, 2014052718, , BEST, 0, 148N, 1125W, 90, 970, HU, 34, NEQ, 90, 80, 80, 90, 1009, 200, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, AMANDA, D,

So Amanda is still a category 2 hurricane now.

[RL3AO]

The same constraints that prevent a storm from having its Dvorak number go up too quickly is also in place to prevent it from coming down too quickly.

T4.0/5.0

Amanda's appearance got a T4.0, but the current intensity was left at 5.0 because storms just don't weaken that quickly over water.

[Yellow Evan]

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 272035
TCDEP1

HURRICANE AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014
200 PM PDT TUE MAY 27 2014

Amanda's cloud pattern has deteriorated in organization today.
Although the cyclone is producing some very intense convection, the
thunderstorms are not particularly well organized, and there is
little evidence of banding features. The current intensity
estimate is set at 90 kt in agreement with the latest Dvorak
estimate from NESDIS SAB - however, this may be generous. The
weakening of the hurricane may be partially due to its slow
movement, and the resultant upwelling of cooler ocean waters.
Although the vertical shear is predicted to diminish over the next
day or two, drier air and lower sea surface temperatures are
likely to induce continued weakening. The official wind speed
forecast is very close to the latest Decay-SHIPS and intensity
model consensus guidance.

The hurricane continues to plod north-northwestward at 4
kt between a weak mid-level ridge to its northeast and a weak
trough to its northwest. Steering currents are forecast to remain
weak for the next several days, but most of the track models show
the tropical cyclone turning northward and then northeastward over
the next couple of days into a slight weakness in the ridge over
northwestern Mexico. Late in the forecast period, a northeast-
southwest oriented ridge extending across the Baja California
peninsula should cause Amanda to turn southwestward. The official
track forecast is only slightly west of the previous one and close
to the latest dynamical model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/2100Z 15.0N 112.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 15.6N 112.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 28/1800Z 16.4N 112.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 29/0600Z 17.3N 111.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 29/1800Z 18.0N 110.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 30/1800Z 18.0N 111.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 31/1800Z 17.5N 111.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 01/1800Z 17.0N 112.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[Yellow Evan]

Likely a TS right now

I disagree. I'd say it's around 75-80 knots. Storms don't weaken that fast.

[Meow]

I disagree. I'd say it's around 75-80 knots. Storms don't weaken that fast.

Bopha weakened rapidly over water like a balloon, from a high-end category 3 TY to a TD with 24 hours. Amanda is luckier.

[Cyclenall]

I think most people (including myself) just thought it was being hyperbolic at the time. Turns out it was almost spot on. That said, it is possible that Amanda just happened to meet the hyperbole. We'll see how the model performs the rest of the season.

That's true, same here lol.

This mornings events were really crazy, this hurricane went above and beyond not just regaining major status, but 110 knots which surprised me. Its funny how the NHC quickly changed the BT because if it was 90 knots and went to 110 knots in 6 hours, that's rapid intensification! . So instead of rapidly weakening, it rapidly strengthened instead and I can't recall that ever happening so yeah...changing that BT is a good idea so it doesn't look too silly (and I agree with doing so because it likely was above 100 knots the whole time).

[Yellow Evan]

The eye's gone, but the convection is somewhat there still. Looks a little better organized IMO.

[RL3AO]

Large GIF of Amanda near peak intensity from GOES-13, 14, and 15.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/1405235_goes15_goes14_goes13_visible_amanda_anim.gif