Global model runs discussion

[HURRICANELONNY]

I think from what I read. The MJO is suppose to enter the carribean next week and get a little stronger. Models don't do well that far out but it's a signal. So pressures might lower down there. Models pop up lows everywhere but won't know much probably till late next week.

[CourierPR]

I think from what I read. The MJO is suppose to enter the carribean next week and get a little stronger. Models don't do well that far out but it's a signal. So pressures might lower down there. Models pop up lows everywhere but won't know much probably till late next week.

I think that's a very reasonable assumption. We are at that time when the waiting and watching begin.

[cycloneye]

Let's have some entertainment on this Memorial day. Here is the CMC. (Crazy Making Cyclones)

[blp]

Let's have some entertainment on this Memorial day. Here is the CMC. (Crazy Making Cyclones)

[http://oi57.tinypic.com/verp5s.jpg[/img]

Hey Cycloneye you want to see some real entertainment check out the FIM 9. It may take over new crazy uncle model from the CMC. It ramps systems up too quick IMO.

https://imageshack.com/i/ngp8b4p

[cycloneye]

Let's have some entertainment on this Memorial day. Here is the CMC. (Crazy Making Cyclones)

[http://oi57.tinypic.com/verp5s.jpg[/img]

Hey Cycloneye you want to see some real entertainment check out the FIM 9. It may take over new crazy uncle model from the CMC. It ramps systems up too quick IMO.

https://imageshack.com/i/ngp8b4p

Maybe not so much entertainment after all? I posted here a interesting video by Levi Cowan.

[Hurricane Alexis]

Same scenario from the 18z GFS

[floridasun78]

Let's have some entertainment on this Memorial day. Here is the CMC. (Crazy Making Cyclones)

[http://oi57.tinypic.com/verp5s.jpg[/img]

Hey Cycloneye you want to see some real entertainment check out the FIM 9. It may take over new crazy uncle model from the CMC. It ramps systems up too quick IMO.

https://imageshack.com/i/ngp8b4p

Maybe not so much entertainment after all? I posted here a interesting video by Levi Cowan.

he say rain for fl by week one hurr season

[supercane4867]

00Z GFS continue showing a well-defined system near Yucatan with gale force winds to its north

[Hurricaneman]

I wouldn't rule out something similar to Debby in 2012 or Andrea last year

[hurricanehunter69]

The latest satellite image shows no precipitation in the Caribbean. Where will the moisture originate to feed any developing system?

The ULL over Texas is the culprit, and is forecasted to be cutoff and move to the SE (into the Caribbean). A ridge to it's east could also help to funnel moisture from the deep tropics into the systems eastern quadrant.

[HURRICANELONNY]

This is a tidbit from Miami discussion this morning on 5/27.

odels then diverge quite dramatically by next week as the GFS depicts an area of low pressure developing across the Yucatan and pushing north into the Gulf of Mexico. The European model (ecmwf) on the other hand keeps the bulk of the moisture well south with upper ridging building into the western Gulf of Mexico.

[floridasun78]

This is a tidbit from Miami discussion this morning on 5/27.

odels then diverge quite dramatically by next week as the GFS depicts an area of low pressure developing across the Yucatan and pushing north into the Gulf of Mexico. The European model (ecmwf) on the other hand keeps the bulk of the moisture well south with upper ridging building into the western Gulf of Mexico.

i saw that too on miami weather office site too

[Alyono]

12Z GFS more aggressive in terms of development

[WeatherEmperor]

12Z GFS more aggressive in terms of development

Does the Euro show any development? Also, what does the Canadian show?

Sent from my HTC EVO 4G LTE

[NDG]

12z GFS still at it, becoming more consistent with timing of potential development. It might be suffering with convective feedback issues compared to the Euro but the GFS has a better track record from prior years with systems that develop on the western Caribbean/BOC area where the Euro loves to push the moisture into mainland MX quicker than what it usually does, IMO.

[Alyono]

Can we lay off the convective feedback excuse?

It is the most overused term on weather forums. There are clear synoptic differences between the EC and GFS

[blp]

The GFS certainly seems resonable given the time of year and the track. Also, in El Nino years you typically get this kind of early season development before that area shuts down later in the season. Waiting to see the Euro jumps in then the idea will be solidified in my mind. The Euro has been a little late to the game the past few years with picking up cyclogenesis, but it also has less false postives than the GFS so it balances out.

[ronjon]

Big ole fat anti-cyclone sitting and expanding at 200 mb in the NW caribbean in the 6-7 day time frame according to GFS. This could get interesting.

200 mb GFS

[Hammy]

Am I correct that the system presently moving into South America is what the models are picking up later in the week?

[cycloneye]

Big ole fat anti-cyclone sitting and expanding at 200 mb in the NW caribbean in the 6-7 day time frame according to GFS. This could get interesting.

200 mb GFS

To let you know that I had to make your link as a hyperlink as it was too long and it was affecting bandwitch.