2014 WPAC Season

[euro6208]

Slow yeah hope it kicks off soon i remember last season was slow then it just took off and kept producing. Meow the Bom uses JTWC to cross reference intensity. Sticking to the Shem and Wespac to many show pony's in those other basins.

lol what do you mean by this?

Anyway, this lull will just be temporary. This season will be very active and possibly destructive with an uptick beginning next month and lasting through january.

World's most active basin enhanced by el nino, Sleeping godzilla

[euro6208]

Using the best track data from JTWC, the average number of storms at this date is 3-4 and 4-5 next June 30.

2014 already at 6 TC with 5 named so we are slightly ahead.

Despite being slow so far, we are still on track for a remarkable season

[stormkite]

CMC appears to have something on there model looks to track from the usual path and looks a fish what ever it is no real idea atm of the intensity just the color scale suggests 40-80 And yeah true its just quite atm.


http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NGPTROPWPA ... sloop.html

[euro6208]

Lack of activity due to dry MJO (sinking air) and not expected to become favorable in the short term.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

CMC appears to have something on there model looks to track from the usual path and looks a fish what ever it is no real idea atm of the intensity just the color scale suggests 40-80 And yeah true its just quite atm.


http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NGPTROPWPA ... sloop.html

Dry MJO over the WPAC. CMC's forecast is always too bullish when it comes to early systems.

[stormkite]

4 N 159 E atm

This weak circulation atm is what i think the CMC was modeling there is a pulse







Certainly worth keeping a eye on atm i think time will tell.


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[stormkite]

Code: Select all

AXPQ20 RJTD 210700
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE BEST TRACK
NAME 1405 TAPAH (1405)
PERIOD FROM APR2700UTC TO MAY0206UTC
2700 10.1N 146.5E 1008HPA  //KT  2706 10.4N 146.8E 1006HPA  //KT
2712 11.2N 147.0E 1006HPA  //KT  2718 11.8N 147.0E 1004HPA  //KT
2800 12.5N 147.0E 1002HPA  35KT  2806 13.2N 147.2E  998HPA  35KT
2812 14.0N 147.4E  994HPA  40KT  2818 14.8N 147.4E  990HPA  45KT
2900 15.6N 147.3E  985HPA  50KT  2906 16.5N 147.4E  985HPA  50KT
2912 17.2N 147.5E  985HPA  50KT  2918 18.0N 147.5E  985HPA  50KT
3000 18.7N 147.4E  985HPA  50KT  3006 19.3N 147.2E  990HPA  45KT
3012 19.8N 146.8E  996HPA  40KT  3018 20.5N 146.1E 1002HPA  35KT
0100 21.3N 145.3E 1006HPA  //KT  0106 22.0N 144.4E 1008HPA  //KT
0112 22.8N 143.8E 1008HPA  //KT  0118 23.5N 144.0E 1008HPA  //KT
0200 24.1N 144.2E 1010HPA  //KT  0206 24.9N 145.2E 1012HPA  //KT
REMARKS
TD   FORMATION  AT APR2700UTC
FROM TD  TO TS  AT APR2800UTC
FROM TS  TO STS AT APR2900UTC
FROM STS TO TS  AT APR3006UTC
FROM TS  TO TD  AT MAY0100UTC
DISSIPATION     AT MAY0212UTC=

Tapah is no longer a May storm.

Look Meow

06W TAPAH 140501 1800 23.4N 143.6E WPAC 20 1007
06W TAPAH 140501 1200 22.7N 143.7E WPAC 25 1004
06W TAPAH 140501 0600 22.0N 144.4E WPAC 25 1004
06W TAPAH 140501 0000 21.4N 145.2E WPAC 35 996
06W TAPAH 140430 1800 20.6N 146.2E WPAC 45 989
06W TAPAH 140430 1200 19.9N 146.8E WPAC 45 989
06W TAPAH 140430 0600 19.4N 147.1E WPAC 55 982
06W TAPAH 140430 0600 19.4N 147.1E WPAC 55 982
06W TAPAH 140430 0000 18.8N 147.3E WPAC 60 978
06W TAPAH 140430 0000 18.8N 147.3E WPAC 60 978
06W TAPAH 140429 1800 18.1N 147.4E WPAC 60 978
06W TAPAH 140429 1800 18.1N 147.4E WPAC 60 978
06W TAPAH 140429 1200 17.2N 147.4E WPAC 65 980
06W TAPAH 140429 1200 17.2N 147.4E WPAC 65 980
06W TAPAH 140429 0600 16.4N 147.4E WPAC 70 970
06W TAPAH 140429 0600 16.4N 147.4E WPAC 70 970
06W TAPAH 140429 0600 16.4N 147.4E WPAC 70 970
06W TAPAH 140429 0000 15.7N 147.4E WPAC 65 974
06W TAPAH 140429 0000 15.7N 147.4E WPAC 65 974
06W TAPAH 140428 1800 15.0N 147.5E WPAC 55 982
06W TAPAH 140428 1800 15.0N 147.5E WPAC 55 982
06W TAPAH 140428 1200 13.9N 147.5E WPAC 50 985
06W TAPAH 140428 0600 13.3N 147.3E WPAC 50 985
06W TAPAH 140428 0000 12.7N 147.0E WPAC 50 985
06W TAPAH 140427 1800 12.3N 146.8E WPAC 40 993
06W TAPAH 140427 1200 11.8N 146.6E WPAC 30 1000
06W TAPAH 140427 0600 11.2N 146.3E WPAC 20 1006
06W TAPAH 140427 0000 10.6N 146.2E WPAC 20 1006
06W TAPAH 140426 1800 10.2N 146.1E WPAC 20 1005
06W TAPAH 140426 1200 9.9N 145.9E WPAC 15 1005

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/TC/tc14/WPAC ... ckfile.txt

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Lack of activity due to dry MJO (sinking air) and not expected to become favorable in the short term.

Definitely true. This is the reason why we have not seen development since TY Tapah. Let's wait for things to be in a bang, our basin is full of surprises. Excited to track a typhoon next month. As of the past 2 weeks, GFS and ECMWF have not shown any tropical development in our basin in the next 2 weeks. There is a cluster of clouds close to the equator over quite favorable conditions, but the dry MJO wants to say no!

[euro6208]

Drought continues...

[euro6208]

GFS showing something super long range, closed 1008mb low, in the el nino box on friday the 13th...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

GFS showing something super long range, closed 1008mb low, in the el nino box on friday the 13th...

Latest run shows nothing. But I do think that we would get at least 2 typhoons by June.

[euro6208]

GFS showing something super long range, closed 1008mb low, in the el nino box on friday the 13th...

Latest run shows nothing. But I do think that we would get at least 2 typhoons by June.

but then again, it could show up in the next run that is why we have to watch for consistency.

[Meow]

Look Meow

06W TAPAH 140429 0600 16.4N 147.4E WPAC 70 970
06W TAPAH 140429 0600 16.4N 147.4E WPAC 70 970
06W TAPAH 140429 0600 16.4N 147.4E WPAC 70 970

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/TC/tc14/WPAC ... ckfile.txt

I have known what JTWC does.

[Steve820]

Hopefully we'll get something by mid-June, the WPac has been inactive during the past month. I predict the basin could explode by the end of June and in July, so maybe this is just the calm before the storm?

[stormkite]

http://coolwx.com/buoydata/regions/pac-midplot.php

SST is like soup.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

http://coolwx.com/buoydata/regions/pac-midplot.php

SST is like soup.

I guess that is a result of the warming due to the developing El Niño that is not yet declared. Anomalies in the eastern regions are at 0.7-1.8°C and are spreading westwards.When El Niño arrives at the same time the MJO arrives, we could see lots of storms to track and will put an end in the post-Tapah inactivity

[stormkite]

Looks to be that lpa in the above GFS models is coming into the picture in a few days a dark horse? What is your opinion Meow think it can develop.

[Meow]

Looks to be that lpa in the above GFS models is coming into the picture in a few days a dark horse? What is your opinion Meow think it can develop.

It won’t have any chance to develop, according to ECMWF.

[stormkite]

Been looking over some things i think the monsoon trough will show up next week.
Then maybe a big cat5 fishy i hope strait up the centre a 180 knot beast.

[euro6208]

WPAC ACE at 11.5425

Normal Year to date is 27... 42 percent normal...