Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
248 PM AST MON MAY 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY INTO A
CUTOFF EAST OF BAHAMAS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RIDGE ALOFT WILL
BUILD AGAIN OVER THE REGION LATE THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IN
GENERAL...EXPECT UNSTABLE CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING IMPROVING AS THE UPPER TROUGH DISSIPATES AND MOVES AWAY INTO
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A PATCH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVED OVER THE AREA
EARLY TODAY...MAINTAINING VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MOST OF
PUERTO RICO WHILE CIRRUS CLOUDS HAVE MOVED OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS ALL DAY. PASSING SHOWERS AFFECTED THE EASTERN HALF OF PR
IN THE MORNING WHILE SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE GENERATED ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN HALF PR THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
AFTERNOON ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF NEAR SUNSET...LEAVING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIMITED SHOWER TONIGHT. OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST AN UNSTABLE PATTERN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SW NORTH
ATLANTIC. THIS UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATION WILL PROMOTE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND CLOUD/SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THE
MOST ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BETWEEN LATE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE POOLS FROM THE EAST AND A UPPER DIVERGENT
PATTERN PREVAILS ALOFT. THEN...A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE REGION...LIMITING THE SHOWER COVERAGE ACROSS THE ISLANDS THE LATER
PART OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER... TRADE WIND SHOWERS ACROSS THE WINDWARD
SIDE OF THE ISLANDS ARE POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE EXCEPT FOR BRIEF MVFR AT TJMZ
DUE TO SHRA/VCTS LOWERING CEILINGS/VSBL UNTIL 26/22Z. VCSH FOR
TJPS...TJBQ...TJSJ AND LOCAL ISLANDS THRU TUESDAY. MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION POSSIBLE. WINDS BLO FL150 E 10-20 KT SHIFTING FROM THE
ENE TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...A RELATIVELY QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SEAS WILL CONTINUE BETWEEN 3-5 FT AND WINDS
12-17 KT ACROSS LOCAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 88 77 88 / 30 20 20 20
STT 78 88 78 88 / 30 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Variable weather between sun and scattered showers will prevail today in PR and VI.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
422 AM AST TUE MAY 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SUPPORTED BY WEAK LOW LEVEL
TROUGHINESS JUST EAST OF THE REGION...WILL CONTINUE TO AID IN
ENHANCING EARLY MORNING PASSING TRADE WIND SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A SOLID BAND OF
MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN...AND WAS BEING LIFTED NORTHWARDS ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN. MEANWHILE JUST EAST OF THE REGION...WEAK LOW LEVEL
INDUCED TROUGHINESS WILL PROMOTE A LIGHT EAST NORTHEAST FLOW WHICH
WILL HELP TRANSPORT PATCHES OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA FROM TIME
TO TIME TODAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PARTLY CLOUDY TO VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL
AS A MIXTURE OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND SMALL CLUSTERS OF
PASSING TRADE WIND MOISTURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF QUICK PASSING SHOWERS
EARLY MORNING SHOWERS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND PARTS OF THE
NORTH AND EAST SECTIONS OF SOME OF THE ISLANDS. DURING THE AFTERNOON...
LOCAL SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE...DAYTIME HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS
WILL AID IN GENERATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER
PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. MEANWHILE...OVER
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...A FEW PASSING SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED BUT NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE FORECAST FOR TODAY.

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO SUGGEST A SUFFICIENTLY MOIST
AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...WITH INCREASING
PWAT VALUES...AS A SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING AN
EASTERLY PERTURBATION WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION. FAIRLY
DECENT INSTABILITY/DIVERGENCE ALOFT... WILL ALSO PROMOTE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND INCREASING CLOUDINESS WITH ENHANCED CONVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA AT LEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHEN THE MOST ACTIVE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR. CLOUDINESS AND LOCAL CONVECTION
SHOULD THEN TAPER OFF BY THURSDAY AND THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTH WHILE FILLING AND PWAT
VALUES ONCE AGAIN DECREASES. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION...LIMITING THE AFTERNOON SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE ISLANDS. IN ADDITION...TYPICAL PASSING EARLY MORNING
TRADE WIND SHOWERS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND WINDWARD SIDE OF
THE ISLANDS...WILL REMAIN LIKELY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
LOCAL FLYING AREA WITH BRIEF PASSING VCSH ACROSS TIST AND TJSJ.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST AT AROUND 10 KTS UNTIL
27/13Z...INCREASING UP TO AROUND 15 KTS AND GUSTY THEREAFTER WITH
SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS. SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AFTER
27/16Z...VCSH/VCTS AT TJPS AND TJMZ LIKELY AS WELL AS MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS. SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE FOR TJMZ AFTER 27/18Z.


&&

.MARINE...FAIRLY TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SEAS WILL CONTINUE BETWEEN 3-5 FT AND WINDS
OF 17 KNOTS OR LESS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS LOCAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 76 87 76 / 30 20 20 20
STT 88 77 87 78 / 20 20 20 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
302 PM AST TUE MAY 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED/NUMBEROUS SHOWERS ARE JUST EAST OF THE
LEEWARDS AND ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL EASTERLY WAVE. 12Z GFS BACKED
OFF FROM THE PREVIOUS RUN IN DEVELOPING THIS WAVE AND KEEPS IT A
LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH AS IT MOVES INTO CARIBBEAN TONIGHT. IT ALSO
NO LONGER PUSHES THE PRECIPITABLE WATER ABOVE 2 INCHES AS IT DOES
SO. BELIEVE THERE IS ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO
EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS SOUTH OF ST. CROIX LATE TONIGHT AND AT
LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS SOUTH OF PR/USVI BY AFTERNOON. FOR WED
AFTERNOON THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO ALLOW SUBSTANTIAL
CONVECTION IN WEST PR THOUGH PROBABLY NOT MORE THAN USUAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

A DIFFICULT FACTOR TO EVALUATE IN THIS SYSTEM IS THE UPPER JET THAT
CONTINUES OVER THE TOP AND ITS MULTIPLE JET STREAKS. GFS IS NOT
HANDLING WHERE THE ASSOCIATED DIVERGENCE/CONVERGENCE WILL BE AND
CANNOT PIN DOWN AN AREA THAT WOULD BE ENHANCED OR SUPPRESSED AS A
RESULT. 00Z GFS HAD STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE OVER ST. CROIX BUT 12Z
RUN REMOVED IT...SO ALL THIS MAY HAVE TO BE CONSIDERED LATER IF GFS
PERFORMS BETTER.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF PASSING VCSH ACROSS TIST...TISX...TJSJ UNTIL
SUNSET. BRIEF MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE FOR TJMZ DUE TO SHRA/TSRA AND LOW
CEILINGS...AS WELL AS FOR THE VICINITY OF TJBQ UNTIL AROUND 27/22Z.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE EAST 15 TO 20 KTS AND GUSTY. MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TRADE WINDS NO HIGHER THAN 17 KT AND NO
SIGNIFICANT SWELLS COMING THIS WEEK. THIS MANIFESTS IN SEAS NO
HIGHER THAN 5 FT AS WELL. MAYBE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER CARIBBEAN
WATERS COMING WED/THU.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 87 76 89 / 20 30 20 30
STT 77 87 78 87 / 20 20 30 30

[cycloneye]

Good morning. A few showers will move thru PR and VI today.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
508 AM AST WED MAY 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE ATLANTIC ACROSS
HISPANIOLA AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE
SOME INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL AT LEAST TONIGHT. LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGES THIS MORNING DEPICTED A BAND OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS...STREAMING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO FILL LATE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PARTLY CLOUDY TO VARIABLY CLOUDY WILL CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL TODAY ACROSS THE REGION AS A WIDE BAND OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AT THE SAME TIME SMALL AREAS OF PASSING
TRADE WIND SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF PASSING SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE REST
OF THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND PARTS OF THE
NORTH AND EAST SECTIONS OF SOME OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS ISLANDS. LATEST
RADAR OBSERVATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING...DEPICTED AN INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AN SURROUNDING WATERS...WITH
LATEST 28/00Z SOUNDING INDICATING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.76
INCHES...COMPARE TO 1.58 INCHES FROM 27/12Z SOUNDING. THIS IS ALSO
NOTICEABLE IN LATEST MIMIC PRODUCT FROM CIMSS. DURING THE
AFTERNOON...THIS ABUNDANT MOISTURE...LOCAL SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE...
DAYTIME HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS WILL COMBINE WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH JUST WEST OF THE REGION TO ENHANCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS
OF THE INTERIOR...WEST AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO FILL LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
BY THAT TIME CLOUDINESS AND LOCAL CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH. A MID TO
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE REGION...LIMITING THE
AFTERNOON SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE ISLANDS. HOWEVER...TYPICAL
PASSING EARLY MORNING TRADE WIND SHOWERS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
AND WINDWARD SIDE OF THE ISLANDS...WILL REMAIN LIKELY FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...BKN-OVC HIGH LVL CLD LYRS MAINLY BTW FL180-FL250...
SCT-BKN LOW/LVL CLD LYRS BTW FL020-FL100 EN ROUTE BETWEEN PR AND THE
NRN LEEWARDS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK TROPICAL
WAVE MOV ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN. FEW-ISOLD PASSING SHRA OVR THE ATLC
AND LCL CARIBBEAN WATERS...AND EN ROUTE BTW ERN PR AND THE USVI.
SCT L/LEVEL CLD LYRS AND SCUD CLDS PSBL WIT PASSING SHRA ALONG WITH
BRIEF MVFR CONDS. MOSTLY VFR CONDS CAN BE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF
PASSING SHRA. MTN TOP OBSCR WILL REMAIN PSBL MAINLY OVR ERN SECTIONS
OF CTRL MTN RANGE OF PR DUE TO LOW CLDS AND -SHRA/SHRA. L/LVL WINDS
BLO 10 KFT FM E 10-15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR COASTAL AREAS AND
IN SHRA ACTIVITY. WND ABV FL200 FM SW AND INCR W/HT.

&&

.MARINE...FAIRLY TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH SEAS BETWEEN 3-5 FT AND WINDS OF 17 KNOTS
OR LESS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 75 88 76 / 40 20 30 20
STT 87 77 87 78 / 30 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
250 PM AST WED MAY 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT. THEN...THE SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD
INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...RESULTING IN IMPROVING WEATHER CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LOOPS OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A CYCLONIC
ROTATION ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER SW NORTH ATLANTIC
THIS AFTERNOON. IR IMAGERY HAVE SHOWED A DENSE UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS
OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ALL DAY TODAY. THE STRONG
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THROUGH AT LEAST LATE TONIGHT. DOPPLER RADAR
HAVE INDICATED SCATTERED SHOWERS AFFECTING OF PUERTO RICO WITH THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS NORTHWEST OF PR SO FAR
THIS AFTERNOON. CERTAINLY THE HIGH CLOUDS HAVE LIMITED THE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS PROVIDING ENOUGH SYNOPTIC FORCING TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...
SO ANY BREAK IN THE CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

GFS ENSEMBLE INDICATED THAT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY
EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT THE
SAME TIME...A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN ALLOWING THE TRADE WIND CAP TO ESTABLISH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. IF THIS SOLUTION VERIFIES...EXPECT A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE ISLANDS FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...CONT MOSTLY VFR BUT AREAS OF CONVECTION WILL CAUSE
AREAS OF MVFR/IFR WITH OBSCD MTNS THE REST OF THE AFT. WINDS BLO
FL100 E 10-20 KT VEERING TO S ABV AND THEN W ABV FL200.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS/SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW 18 KT/5FT. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES IN THE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 88 77 88 / 20 30 20 20
STT 78 87 78 88 / 30 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

There was a quake that was felt in PR and DR.See the details here.

viewtopic.php?f=67&t=107389&hilit=&p=2382868#p2382868

[cycloneye]

Good morning. A few showers will move thru the PR and VI area today.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
428 AM AST THU MAY 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CUBA AND HISPANIOLA
INTO THE CARIBBEAN WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO FILL TODAY. ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH NORTH OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE THE INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES THIS MORNING
DEPICTED A BAND OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS...STREAMING ACROSS
THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THE SUB-EQUATORIAL RIDGE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD INTO THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...RESULTING IN IMPROVING
WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PARTLY TO VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL TODAY ACROSS THE REGION AS A WIDE BAND OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO
RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE LESSER
ANTILLES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AT THE SAME TIME SMALL PATCHES OF LOW
LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED PASSING TRADE WIND SHOWERS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT
IN PERIODS OF PASSING SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE MORNING
HOURS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND PARTS OF THE NORTH AND EAST
SECTIONS OF SOME OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS ISLANDS. IN FACTS...LATEST
RADAR OBSERVATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING...DEPICTED ISOLATED SHOWERS
MOSTLY OVER THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS. LATEST 29/00Z SOUNDING
INDICATING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.72 INCHES...COMPARE TO
1.51 INCHES FROM 28/12Z SOUNDING. DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THIS
MOISTURE...LOCAL SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE...DAYTIME HEATING AND
OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS WILL COMBINE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS TO
ENHANCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS WEST AND NORTH OF THE REGION ARE EXPECTED TO
FILL TODAY AND FRIDAY. BY THAT TIME CLOUDINESS AND LOCAL CONVECTION
WILL DIMINISH. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION...LIMITING THE AFTERNOON SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
ISLANDS. HOWEVER...TYPICAL PASSING EARLY MORNING TRADE WIND SHOWERS
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND WINDWARD SIDE OF THE ISLANDS...WILL
REMAIN LIKELY FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH 29/12Z. SOME PASSING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
TNCM...TKPK...TIST..TISX...AND TJSJ. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE
MAINLY EAST AT 10KTS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL BE AT 17 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS AT 5 FEET OR
LESS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 76 88 77 / 30 20 20 10
STT 86 77 87 78 / 30 30 30 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
300 PM AST THU MAY 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY AS DISSIPATES OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. MID
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL CONTINUE
TO EXPAND WESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED
IN THE TRADE WINDS WILL BRING A FEW ROUNDS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY EVENING. THEN...CLOUD AND SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH
CONSIDERABLY AS MID-LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE REGION DURING THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PARTLY TO VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES HAVE PREVAILED ACROSS
THE ISLANDS TODAY. SOLAR HEATING OVER THE WESTERN SIDE OF PR THIS
MORNING ALLOWED AIR PARCELS TO BREAK THROUGH THE WEAK CAP AND
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. TDWR RADAR
DATA ALSO SHOWS ISLAND TERRAIN PROMPTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA. AT THIS TIME...
THE TDWR RADAR AND THE UPRM CASA RADARS ARE INDICATING A FEW INTENSE
SHOWERS BUT SMALL RAIN CORES AFFECTING LAS MARIAS...ANASCO...SAN
SEBASTIAN...MOCA AND LARES. THESE SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF JUST BEFORE
SUNSET.

THE REST OF THE WEEK AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...GFS AND ECMWF MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXPAND AND
ESTABLISH ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS...WITH LIGHT TRADE WIND SHOWERS TO PESTER THE
USVI AND EASTERN PR DURING THE MORNING HOURS...FOLLOWED BY SHALLOW
CONVECTION OVER WESTERN PR EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR BUT AREAS OF CONVECTION WILL CAUSE AREAS OF
MVFR NEAR TJMZ WITH OBSCD MTNS THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. VCSH
POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT NEAR TISX/TIST AND TNCM/TKPK. EAST
WINDS OF 10-20 KT EXPECTED BELOW FL100.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS OF 12-17 KT AND SEAS OF 2-4 FT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE MARINE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 88 76 87 / 30 30 10 10
STT 77 87 79 88 / 30 30 20 20

[cycloneye]

Good morning. A few showers will move thru PR and VI today.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
438 AM AST FRI MAY 30 2014

.UPDATE...AT UPPER LEVELS...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS NORTH OF
THE AREA ON SATURDAY WHILE A BROADER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE ON SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ON
WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP LOW IN THE WEST ATLANTIC.
TROUGHING REMAINS NEARBY THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF JUNE.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC
WILL SHIFT INTO THE CARIBBEAN ON SUNDAY. A TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE
LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY...BUT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES NORTH OF THE AREA
BEGINNING THURSDAY. MID LEVELS HAVE MODEST MOISTURE UNTIL NEXT
WEEKEND.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL
ATLANTIC OCEAN GENERATING EAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST TRADE WINDS
THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS. AREAS OF MOISTURE WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TERMINAL DOPPLER RADAR REVEALED A FEW SHOWERS
CROSSING ONSHORE INTO SOUTHEASTERN PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS SHOWERS
PASSING TO THE SOUTH AND NORTH OVER THE ADJACENT WATERS IN THE
MODERATE TRADE WIND FLOW. THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS SHOWS A
COLUMNAR MOISTURE MAXIMUM AROUND 31/00Z THAT WILL BE INCREASING
AFTER A BRIEF MINIMUM AROUND NOON. AFTER NOON MOISTURE AT 500 MB
WILL INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO AID SHOWER FORMATION. UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE ALSO APPEARS AFTER 30/18Z AND BOOSTS VERTICAL
MOTION AT MID LEVELS. SOME AMOUNTS COULD BE HEAVY IN WESTERN
PUERTO RICO...BUT DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN LOCALIZED URBAN AND
SMALL STREAM FLOODING AT THIS TIME. THE GFS APPEARS TO BE QUITE A
BIT DRIER ON SATURDAY WITH A REDUCED EXPECTATION FOR SHOWER
ACTIVITY AS WELL. SHOWERS WILL RETURN SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS PASS THROUGH THE FLOW. UPPER LEVEL WINDS
BECOME WEST NORTHWEST ON MONDAY UNTIL BRIEFLY ON WEDNESDAY WHEN
ANOTHER TROUGH AND BETTER SHOWER ACTIVITY PASSES THROUGH. FOR NOW
THE GFS SUGGESTS THAT THE FIRST WEEKEND OF JUNE WILL BE DRIER THAN
THE ONE COMING UP NEXT.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WITH VCSH
DUE TO QUICK PASSING SHRA. WINDS WILL BE 10 TO 15 KTS AFTER 30/12Z
FROM THE EAST WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS. DEVELOPING SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON WILL CAUSE VCSH FOR TJSJ AND THEN POSSIBLE TSRA IN AND
AROUND TJMZ. CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE AND MTN OBSCURATIONS ARE TO BE
EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON AS WELL.

&&

.MARINE...LITTLE CHANGE IS INDICATED IN WINDS OR SEAS THROUGH MID
WEEK NEXT WEEK. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS LATE NEXT WEEK WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A SLIGHT RISE IN SEAS...BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
ARE NOT EXPECTED THIS WEEK OR NEXT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 78 89 77 / 40 20 20 30
STT 86 79 88 79 / 40 20 20 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
303 PM AST FRI MAY 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DOMINANT
WX FEATURE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN ERODE TUE THRU THU AS
TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE ATLC INTO THE ERN CARIBBEAN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WEEKEND WILL BE DOMINATED BY SIG HEIGHT RISES ALOFT
LEADING TO AN OVERALL DRYING AND WARMING TREND WITH SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING OF THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THE RIDGE AND
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY TUE THRU THU
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES BETWEEN 60W-70W INTO THE ERN
CARIBBEAN. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ALLOWING
FOR BETTER OPPORTUNITIES FOR CONVECTION. HOWEVER...MODELS DO NOT
SHOW ANY SIG MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER THE AREA DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK...TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF PR
WITH UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE ESTABLISHING LEADING TO SIGNIFICANT
DRYING AND INCREASING FIRE DANGER RISK. WINDS ALSO STRENGTHEN THU-
SAT FURTHER ENHANCING THE FIRE RISK.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR BUT AREAS OF CONVECTION OVER WESTERN PR MAY
PRODUCE MVFR CONDS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS NEAR TJMZ THROUGH 21Z.
VCSH POSSIBLE SAT MORNING NEAR TISX/TIST AND TNCM/TKPK. EAST WINDS
OF 15-20 KT EXPECTED BELOW FL100.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SAT NIGHT THRU TUE. SEAS
MAINLY 3-5 FT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 89 77 89 / 10 10 10 20
STT 77 88 77 88 / 10 10 10 10

[cycloneye]

Good morning. A few showers will move thru PR and VI today.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
457 AM AST SAT MAY 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH OVER HISPANIOLA WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST. WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL THEN HOLD THE TROUGH
OVER OR JUST EAST OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF JUNE.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL
SHIFT TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY MONDAY...BUT GRADIENTS WILL
BECOME VERY WEAK DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK. BY THE END OF THAT
WEEK HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN RETURN TO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. MID
LEVELS ARE MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC IMPEDES
THE PROGRESS OF A COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTH OUT OF A VIGOROUS LOW
OVER THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THIS ERODES THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH
CONSIDERABLY AND REDUCES GRADIENTS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY WEAKENING WINDS. LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
LATER IN THE WEEK AND TRADE WINDS STRENGTHEN AGAIN. AREAS OF
MOISTURE MOVE THROUGH IN THIS FLOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE SEEN IN THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS AND BETWEEN SAINT CROIX AND SAINT THOMAS MOVING
WEST NORTHWEST. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MOVED INTO EASTERN PUERTO
RICO WITH A FEW PLACES SEEING MORE THAN ONE TENTH INCH OF RAIN.
THE GFS IS SUGGESTING A MINIMUM IN MOISTURE WILL OCCUR THIS
MORNING WITH COLUMNAR MOISTURE INCREASING UNTIL 01/00Z. MOISTURE
INCREASES AGAIN ON MONDAY. MID LEVEL DRYNESS AND HIGH CLOUDINESS
HAVE INHIBITED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS
BEEN MUTED DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS AND IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TODAY
ALSO...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
HOWEVER ENERGY IN THE 18Z SOUNDING IS FORECAST TO INCREASE EACH
DAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AND CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE EACH
DAY FOR INCREASING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PASSAGE WILL ALSO HELP WITH THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BUT
MID LEVEL DRYNESS WILL CONTINUE AND ONLY A FEW ARE EXPECTED. MOST
SHOWER AND ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY CONCENTRATED
IN WESTERN PUERTO RICO AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIMITED IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. CONDITIONS BECOME DRYER LATER
NEXT WEEK.

THE GFS IS SHOWING WINDS TURNING MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AND THIS WILL
RAISE THE TEMPERATURES ON THE NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO.
NEVERTHELESS WITH HIGH CLOUDS PREVAILING FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY TOUCH 90 NEAR THE COAST AND NOT EXCEED
THE LOWER 90S INLAND. MOS APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS
EXCEPT PERHAPS OVER PONCE WHERE HIGHS HAVE BEEN REDUCED SLIGHTLY
MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA WITH VCSH DUE TO QUICK PASSING SHRA IN THE MORNING.
CLOUDINESS AND SHRA INCREASE ACROSS TJBQ AND TJMZ AFTER 31/18Z AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS SHOULD BE EXPECTED. EASTERLY WIND FLOW UP TO 15
KNOTS WILL BE FOUND AT THE SURFACE SHIFTING FROM THE ESE WITH
HEIGHT UP TO 18K FEET...BECOMING FROM THE SW AND STRONGER ALOFT.

&&

.MARINE...SEA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS...ALTHOUGH WINDS DO INCREASE LATER NEXT WEEK.
MODELS APPEAR TO BE INCREASING WINDS TOO MUCH LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD AND HAVE KEPT MOST AREAS BELOW 18 KNOTS. LOCALLY STRONGER
WINDS ARE LIKELY NEAR PONCE AND JUST OFFSHORE FROM THE NORTH COAST
OF PUERTO RICO AND IN PASSAGES IN AND AROUND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 77 89 77 / 20 10 20 20
STT 87 77 87 79 / 20 10 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
310 PM AST SAT MAY 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD THROUGH MON THEN ERODE AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE ATLC INTO THE ERN
CARIBBEAN. SAL EXPECTED TO REACH THE AREA MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO RISE NEXT 24 HRS
LEADING TO FURTHER DRYING...WARMING AND STRENGTHENING OF THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. SLIGHT WEAKENING OF THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
IS EXPECTED MON WHICH MAY RESULT IN ISOLD DEEP CONVECTION OVR NW
PR. MID LEVEL RIDGE ERODES TUE-WED AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES
ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN RESULTING IN SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING OF THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND THUS MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS HOWEVER
DEEP DRY MAY LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS. UPPER TROUGH AXIS
SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA BY THU WITH UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ESTABLISHING LEADING TO SIGNIFICANT DRYING AND STRENGTHENING OF
THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. WINDS BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN WED AND
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS BERMUDA-ZAORES HIGH SHIFTS WESTWARD
FROM THE ERN ATLC TO THE CNTRL ATLC TIGHTENING THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT.
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER (SAL) ON THU AND THE
STRENGTHENING WINDS EXPECT FIRE DANGER TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY
OVER THE SOUTH COASTAL PLAIN AND VIEQUES WHERE FUELS HAVE BEEN DRY
OUT IN THE LAST TWO WEEKS.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR BUT AREAS OF CONVECTION OVER WESTERN PR COULD
PRODUCE MVFR CONDS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS NEAR TJMZ AND TJBQ
THROUGH 21Z. VCSH POSSIBLE ACROSS THE USVI AND LEEWARD TERMINALS
TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT. E TO SE WINDS OF 10-20 KT EXPECTED BELOW
FL100.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS DIMINISH THRU TUE THEN BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN WED AND
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. SEAS MAINLY 3-5 FT WITH A NORTH
SWELL ARRIVING TUE AND WED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 89 77 88 / 10 10 10 20
STT 77 87 79 87 / 10 10 10 10

[cycloneye]

Good morning. A few showers will move thru PR and VI today.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
504 AM AST SUN JUN 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL PIVOT
AROUND TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WEAKLY FORCE A TROUGH THROUGH
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THEN DURING THE WEEK A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN FORCING FLOW OVER THE AREA
TO BECOME NORTHERLY BY NEXT WEEKEND.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IS LODGED OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
AND EXTENDS ACROSS THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN. A STRONG LOW IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL LIFT OUT
LATER THIS WEEK. MID LEVELS REMAIN DRY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME THE DOMINATE FEATURE
OF THE ATLANTIC AFTER A LOW IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LIFTS OUT
AFTER MID WEEK. SURFACE GRADIENTS WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT THROUGH
TUESDAY BEFORE RE-STRENGTHENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUED THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT IN
THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND A FEW MOVED ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO
RICO LEAVING MINIMAL AMOUNTS. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
DURING THE DAY AND...WITH WINDS SOUTHEAST AT UP TO 20 KNOTS IN THE
LOWER LEVELS...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AGAIN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF PUERTO RICO...WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. AS WITH THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...NORTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO MAY BE MISSED
ENTIRELY AGAIN. TODAY THE GFS SHOWS VERY STRONG CONVERGENCE ALOFT
MOVING OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO FROM 01/12 TO 01/18Z
AND THIS WILL LIKELY HOLD BACK SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THAT
AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING. WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW INCREASING
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THE NORTH COAST WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY AND
90S ARE EXPECTED WITHIN A FEW MILES OF THE COAST LINE...
ESPECIALLY IN THE GREATER SAN JUAN METROPOLITAN AREA. MOISTURE AND
DYNAMICS APPEAR TO PEAK ON MONDAY AND CONSIDERABLY MORE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THEN WITH JUST A LITTLE LESS ON TUESDAY AS MOISTURE
DROPS. PATCHY MOISTURE AT LOWER LEVELS...HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS EACH DAY IN THE NORTHWEST AND TO A LIMITED
EXTENT TO THE EASTERN PORTION OF PUERTO RICO. ONLY A FEW SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WITH
PASSING SHRA DURING THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS TIST...TISX AND TJSJ.
CLOUDINESS AND SHRA WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED TSRA INCREASING ACROSS
TJMZ AND TJBQ BETWEEN 01/18Z AND 01/23Z. E TO SE WINDS OF 5-15 KT
WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR AND AROUND SHRA. EXPECT MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
AFTER 01/17Z.

&&

.MARINE...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SOMEWHAT AS WINDS ABATE TODAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT EXPECT 6 FOOT SEAS TO RETURN TO THE OUTER
WATERS OF BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN BY LATE IN THE WEEK.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 10
DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 76 88 77 / 20 20 30 20
STT 87 77 86 78 / 20 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
246 PM AST SUN JUN 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL WEAKEN TEMPORARILY MON AND TUE
THEN STRENGTHEN AGAIN WED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SAL
EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOCAL AREA TUE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE AT ITS MAXIMUM AMPLITUDE OVR
THE LOCAL AREA TODAY THEN WEAKEN SLIGHTLY MON AND TUE BEFORE
REBUILDING AGAIN LATE WED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A 1745Z
ACARS SOUNDING SHOWED THAT A PROMINENT CAP REMAINS IN PLACE BUT
HAS LIFTED TO 700 MB BUT ENOUGH CAPE TO GENERATE SHALLOW
CONVECTION.

THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WEAKENS BRIEFLY MON AS HEIGHTS ALOFT
FALL AND MID LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENS. THIS WILL PROMOTE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES WITH BETTER OPPORTUNTIES FOR SCT
DEEP CONVECTION OVR NCNTRL/NW PR. SFC WINDS ALSO WEAKEN FURTHER
ALLOWING FOR STRONGER SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE INLAND. MODELS SHOW A
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS ON TUE LIKELY AS A RESULT OF ARRIVAL
OF SAL INTO THE LOCAL AREA. A TRADE WIND SURGE APPROACHING
BARBADOS EVIDENT ON GOES VISIBLE IMAGES DENOTES THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER.

WED-SUN...THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY SIG MID-UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHT RISES AS MID LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THIS
RESULTS IN A STRONGLY UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW LEADING TO SIG
STRENGTHENING OF THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. SAHARAN AIR LAYER (SAL)
WILL BECOME FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION AND ACT TO FURTHER
SUPPRESS CONVECTION IN ADDITION TO GIVE THE SKY A HAZY APPEARANCE.
BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH PRES WILL ALSO BE SHIFTING WWD FROM THE
EASTERN TO THE CNTRL ATLC DURING THIS PERIOD LEADING TO SIG
STRENGTHENING OF TRADEWINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THE COMBINATION
OF STRENGTHENING WINDS...LOWERING HUMIDITIES AND DRYING FUELS WILL
RESULT IN FIRE DANGER INCREASING WITH RED FLAG CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
ON THE SOUTH COAST AND VIEQUES ESPECIALLY THU AND FRI WHEN WINDS
EXPECTED TO BE STRONGEST.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. WINDS AROUND 10-15KT WITH AN
ONSHORE COMPONENT. SCT TSRA MON AFTERNOON JMZ AND JBQ. MUCH DRIER
TUE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK WITH SOME DUST HAZE. WINDY CONDITIONS
WED-SAT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS 10-15 KT SUN-TUE WITH SEAS 3-5 FT. WINDS
STRENGTHEN WED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH SEAS BUILDING 4-6
FT. NORTH SWELLS ALSO EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE TUE INCREASING THE
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IN NORTH AND EAST FACING BEACHES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SIG FIRE WX POTENTIAL MID TO LATE WEEK AS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS SOUTH AND EAST LEADING TO LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING. SAL WILL ACT TO FURTHER SUPPRESS CLOUDS AND
RAINFALL. WINDS ALSO STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY WED THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WED-SUN BUT APPEAR
MOST LIKELY ON FRI AND SAT WHEN GFS SHOWS A SHARP DROP IN 850 MB
DEWPOINTS AND THETAE VALUES AND WINDS THE STRONGEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 88 77 89 / 10 20 20 20
STT 77 86 78 87 / 20 20 20 20

[Macrocane]

Heavy rains have been registered in El Salvador because of invest 93E in the EPAC. Here's yesterday rainfall in the country:



Ilopango 118 mm/4.65 inches
Jucuarán 110 mm/4.33 inches
San Marcos Lempa 107 mm/4.21 inches
Santa Beatriz 104 mm/4.09 inches
Zacatecoluca 92.8 mm/3.65 inches
Las Pilas 90 mm/3.54 inches
San Salvador 72 mm/2.83 inches

Fortunately no damages have been reported.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Mainly dry weather with only a few afternoon showers in PR is expected today.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
507 AM AST MON JUN 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...THE TROUGH FROM A STRONG LOW OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS PASSING OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ABOUT 900 MILES
NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN ON FRIDAY TO REINFORCE THIS PATTERN. FLOW
HAS ALSO TURNED NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE AREA WITH THE TROUGH
PASSAGE.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME THE STRONG LOW IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL BE ABSORBED INTO THE FLOW WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
NEXT MID-LATITUDE TROUGH CAUSING GRADIENTS AT MID LEVELS TO RELAX
CONSIDERABLY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS CAUSING
A WEAKENING IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW...BUT HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
NORTHEAST CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MOVE WESTWARD LATER THIS WEEK
WHILE DIMINISHING IN STRENGTH. THIS WILL CAUSE THE TRADE WINDS TO
RE-ESTABLISH AFTER WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE TRADE WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE EASTERLY OVER THE WEEKEND...THE HIGH IN THE ATLANTIC
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND WEAKEN EVEN MORE AND WINDS WILL RETURN TO
SOUTHEAST LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS WERE LIMITED OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH A FEW DID
MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST PUERTO RICO AND CONTINUE AS FAR AS JUNCOS AND
SAN LORENZO IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. BOTH THE MIMIC AND THE
SOUNDERS IN BAYAMON AND SAINT CROIX SHOW A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
COLUMNAR MOISTURE THAT IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE INTO SOME
AFTERNOON SHOWERS. SINCE WINDS HAVE SHIFTED LITTLE AT LOWER
LEVELS SINCE YESTERDAY AND MID LEVEL WINDS ARE QUITE
WEAK...EXPECT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP ACROSS
MUCH THE SAME AREAS AS YESTERDAY...WITH THE BEST RAINFALL TO OCCUR
IN NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO AND LITTLE OR NONE IN THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS. THE SOUTHEAST FLOW SENT THE TEMPERATURES ROCKETING INTO
THE LOWER 90S ON THE NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO SUNDAY AND A
SIMILAR SITUATION IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL FLOW
HAS BEGUN TO TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND THIS SHOULD SIGNAL LESS
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR CLOUDS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE
AREA...HOWEVER THE TALLER CLOUDS WILL SEND THEIR PLUMES BACK OVER
THE ISLAND RATHER THAN OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC AS IN THE LAST FEW
DAYS. THIS MAY SERVE TO REINFORCE SOME OF THE ACTIVITY SINCE TRADE
WIND FLOW WILL BE SOUTHEAST FOR THE MOST PART TODAY. ALSO WITH THE
CIRRUS PLUME NOW GONE...SURFACE HEATING WILL BE AT SOME OF ITS
MOST INTENSE LEVELS SINCE LAST YEAR. THEREFORE SOME ISOLATED URBAN
AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING SHOULD BE EXPECTED WITH SOME OF THE
STRONGER SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
THE LACK OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE...HOWEVER...CONTINUES TO BE THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT INHIBITING FACTOR FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON THE
NORTH COAST AFTER WEDNESDAY...BUT LATER NEXT WEEK WINDS WEAKEN
CONSIDERABLY AND TURN SOUTHEAST...SO ANOTHER WARM UP IS LIKELY.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING
AREA WITH VCSH DUE TO QUICK PASSING SHRA IN THE MORNING. CLOUDINESS
AND SHRA INCREASING ACROSS TJBQ AND TJMZ AFTER 02/18Z. EXPECT
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO AFT 02/17Z. LLVL
WINDS ESE-SE 5 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS ARE ABATING SOMEWHAT AND ALLOWING SEAS TO RELAX.
AFTER WEDNESDAY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND OUTER WATERS ARE EXPECTED
TO HAVE UP TO 6 FOOT SEAS AFTER WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
ARE NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 93 78 93 78 / 20 20 20 10
STT 84 79 84 79 / 20 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
306 PM AST MON JUN 2 2014


.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
KEEP A LIGHT TO MODERATE WIND FLOW THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY...INCREASING WINDS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WHEN
THE LOW PRESSURE DISSIPATES. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST
INTO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS BY THURSDAY WITH MODELS SHOWING STRONG
UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE ESTABLISHING OVER THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN
LEADING TO MORE STABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA. SAHARAN DUST MADE
ITS WAY INTO THE LOCAL AREA CAUSING HAZE...MODELS INDICATE DUST
OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO EARLY IN
THE AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER THIS AREA FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

SAHARAN DUST IS MOVING INTO THE LOCAL AREA. SECTIONS OF PR AS WELL
AS THE USVI HAVE ALREADY OBSERVED HAZE. NAAPS MODEL INDICATES THAT
THE DUST CONCENTRATION WILL BE OVER THE AREA FOR UNTIL AT LEAST
THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...DRIER AIR IS MOVING IN WITH PATCHES OF
MOISTURE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS BY THU WITH MODELS SHOWING STRONG UPPER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ESTABLISHING OVER THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN LEADING TO
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE. H7 TEMPS RISE TO 12C THU-SAT WHILE
850-700 MB THICKNESS VALUES SHOW A SHARP RISE INDICATING A STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN PLACE THAT WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT TO
OVERCOME. IN ADDITION... STRENGTHENING TRADE WINDS TO NEAR 20 KT
WILL INHIBIT SEA BREEZE FORMATION. EXPECTING VERY LITTLE IF ANY
CONVECTION DURING THIS PERIOD. ATTENTION WILL TURN INSTEAD TO
FIRE WEATHER ESPECIALLY FRI AND SAT ON THE SOUTH COAST AND
VIEQUES.


&&

.AVIATION...VCTS LIKELY AT TJBQ AND TJMZ THIS AFTERNOON. DUST HAZE MAKING
AN APPEARANCE ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT
AROUND 10 KTS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS EXPECTED TO BE 3 TO 5 FEET ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS AND WINDS UP TO 17 KNOTS. NORTHERLY SWELL EXPECTED TO
INVADE THE LOCAL WATERS ON TUESDAY...CAUSING AN INCREASE ON THE
SEAS TO 4 TO 6 FEET.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 93 78 91 / 0 10 0 0
STT 79 84 79 87 / 10 10 10 10

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Mainly dry and warm weather will prevail today in PR and VI.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
525 AM AST TUE JUN 3 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...AS LOW PRESSURE RECEDES AND WEAKENS
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LOCAL FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY AND A
WEAK TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE AREA. NEXT WEEK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
FORCING THE FLOW TO SHIFT FROM NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND THE
CARIBBEAN CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS. MID LEVELS ARE
GENERALLY DRY EXCEPT FOR MODEST MOISTURE ON MONDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WHILE WEAKENING...BUT THIS WILL INCREASE THE
TRADE WINDS OVER THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
MODEL SOLUTIONS TODAY SHOW LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING STRONGLY EAST
OF FLORIDA THAT WILL CAUSE FLOW OVER THE LOCAL AREA TO TURN
SOUTHERLY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A FEW SHOWERS WERE NOTED MOVING NORTH NORTHWEST OVER
THE ATLANTIC LAST NIGHT...AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATED THAT A
THUNDERSTORM FORMED BETWEEN 4 AND 5 AM AST IN THE NORTHERN MOST
PORTION OF THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF ARECIBO. RADAR TOPS
BRIEFLY PEAKED AT 49 KFT THEN. THE ATMOSPHERE IS SOMEWHAT DRIER
THAN YESTERDAY AND HAZY CONDITIONS FROM A MIXTURE OF SAHARAN
DUST...SMOKE...POLLEN AND SULFATES WILL CONTINUE TODAY...KEEPING
VISIBILITIES BETWEEN 8 AND 15 MILES IN MOST AREAS. WITH FLOW FROM
THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST...NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
FROM SAN JUAN GREATER METROPOLITAN AREA TO ARECIBO THIS AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY SINCE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES FELL TO ONLY 78 DEGREES IN
SAN JUAN AS OF 5 AM AST AND LIKELY ONLY MADE IT DOWN TO THE UPPER
60S IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. THE RECORD HIGH FOR TODAY IN
SAN JUAN IS 94 WHICH WAS SET IN 1993. OUR TRADE WINDS WILL
INCREASE DURING THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE IN THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC MOVES CLOSER TO THE LOCAL AREA WHILE WEAKENING.
PATCHES OF MOISTURE MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY...SATURDAY
AND MONDAY...WITH THE BEST MOISTURE REACHING 2.1 INCHES OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER ON MONDAY. THEREFORE HAVE MOVED POPS UP
CONSIDERABLY FOR WESTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE SURROUNDING WATERS
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS WILL BE RELATIVELY
DRY EXCEPT IN NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO...BUT ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTH COAST AND LOCAL WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING
AREA WITH VCSH DUE TO QUICK PASSING SHRA IN THE MORNING. CLOUDINESS
AND SHRA INCREASING ACROSS TJBQ AND TJMZ AFTER 03/18Z. MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED IN NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL PUERTO
RICO AFT 03/17Z. THE TJSJ 03/00Z SOUNDING INDICATED A LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND FLOW ALL THE WAY FROM THE SURFACE TO AROUND 15K
FEET...BECOMING WEST NORTHWEST AND STRONGER ALOFT. MOST SFC VSBYS
WILL BE LIMITED TO 8 TO 15 MILES IN HAZE AND DUST.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS. SOME NORTHERLY 4 FOOT SWELL...MAKING SEAS
UP TO 6 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC...PEAK THIS AFTERNOON AND SUBSIDE
SLOWLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 93 78 91 78 / 10 10 10 20
STT 88 79 87 79 / 10 10 10 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
256 PM AST TUE JUN 3 2014

.SYNOPSIS...BASE OF UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE WEST CENTRAL
ATLANTIC SOUTHWARDS ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH THE REGION ON
THE SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE TROUGH. TROUGH IS TO MEANDER ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE LIFTING NORTHWARDS
AND WEAKENING. IN THE LOW LEVELS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS
THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE WEST
CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS INDUCING A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH JUST WEST OF
THE AREA AND HELPING TO CREATE A DOMINANT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SAHARAN
AIR LAYER TRACKING PRODUCTS SUGGESTS DRIER AIR WITH TRACES OF SUSPENDED
SAHARAN DUST PARTICULATES FILTERING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE EAST
AND SOUTHEAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND MILD CAP INVERSION NEAR 700
MILLIBARS WILL LIMIT/SUPPRESS ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
TODAY AND FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL
ALSO CALL FOR GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IN THE PREVAILING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW...
MOST OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IF ANY WILL BE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
PUERTO RICO..AS SOME ENHANCEMENT OF THE SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE MAY
LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.
CAN BE EXPECTED. THE LATE AFTERNOON SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HOWEVER
BE OF SHORT DURATION AND SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH JUST AROUND SUNSET.
THIS OVERALL PATTERN IS TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
THEREAFTER...THE WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE EASTERLY AND SHOULD BRING
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN TRADE WIND MOISTURE WITH INCREASED LOCALIZED
CONVERGENCE ACCOMPANYING WEAK EASTERLY PERTURBATIONS WHICH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL
THEREFORE REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN
INTERIOR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS... FOLLOWED BY SOME LATE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO. STILL HOWEVER FORESEE NO SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL
IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME...AS OVERALL
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE RELATIVELY DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE TERMINALS WITH HAZE.
VISIBILITIES SHOULD STILL BE P6SM. CLOUDS AND SHRA ACTIVITY
INCREASING...CAUSING MTN OBSCURATIONS AND VCSH/VCTS FOR TJMZ AND
TJBQ AFTER 03/18Z. SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AT
ABOUT 10 KTS WILL CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH 03/22Z OR SO. WINDS
DECREASING OVERNIGHT TO LESS THAN 10 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC
WATERS STARTING TONIGHT DUE TO SEAS OF UP TO 6 FEET. SEAS OF 7 FEET
OR HIGHER ARE NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 89 79 88 / 20 10 20 20
STT 78 89 79 88 / 20 10 30 30

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Mainly dry and hazy weather will prevail today in PR and Vi.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
544 AM AST WED JUN 4 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DEEP LAYER LOW OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD AS WEAKENS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...CREATING A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH AREAS OF SAHARAN DUST
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW/TROUGH AFFECTING MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING. AS THE UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES NORTHWARD
TODAY...UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE ACROSS THE
REGION. AT THE SAME TIME...MID-LEVEL/SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE WILL
ESTABLISH ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...LIMITING THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE SUGGESTING
A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN PREVAILING ACROSS THE AREA OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...THE PREVAILING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
WILL KEEP THE HOT TEMPS ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
AS WELL AS SOME SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO EACH AFTERNOON.
IN ADDITION...A DENSE SAHARAN DUST WILL CONTINUE TO REACH THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY...PRODUCING HAZY SKIES
AND SOME AREAS OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES. NAAPS AEROSOL MODELS SUGGEST
LESSER CONCENTRATIONS OF DUST FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OVERALL...
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKERS FORESEEN IN NEXT 5-7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
04/18Z. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED OVER TJMZ AND TJBQ IN SHRA/TSRA. LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL CONTINUE MAINLY SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...A MODERATE NORTH SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES TODAY AND THURSDAY. WAVE
HEIGHTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 3-5 FEET WITH A FEW GROUPS OF 6 FEET
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS. TRADE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN FROM
MODERATE TO FRESH ON THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 91 77 88 77 / 20 20 20 30
STT 88 78 87 79 / 20 20 20 30