2014 EPAC Season

[Yellow Evan]

GFS shows a TS/Hurricane in less than 144 hours and is more closer to Mexico than Amanda was.

Brings it to 969 mbar. First forms in ~3 days. Not sure if I buy this or not.

[supercane4867]

12Z GFS has the system much weaker, barely a depression

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Development of an East Pacific cyclone in 5-6 days would likely be out of a large monsoonal circulation like the GFS is indicating, meaning the system would be broad and convective initially. I like the 12z GFS depiction of a weaker tropical storm as opposed to the 06z forecast of a major hurricane.

[cycloneye]

From 11 AM PDT TWO.

An area of low pressure could form to the south of Mexico this
weekend. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some
development of this system early next week as it moves little.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[hurricanes1234]

As one leaves, another area of interest arrives.

In my opinion, I think there's a chance we will see something from this, but I don't think it will be very strong, if at all.

[hurricanes1234]

I pulled this from the 5 PM outlook (it's up to 40% in 5 days). The potential appears to be there for sure.

An area of low pressure is expected to form a few hundred miles
south of southeastern Mexico late this weekend. Environmental
conditions should become conducive for some development of this
system by early next week as it drifts northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

[Kingarabian]

Had potential written all over it since the get-go.

[Yellow Evan]

Much weaker in the 18z run. Still will be larger and will likely be moving slowly, so the flooding threat is high. The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Much weaker in the 18z run. Still will be larger and will likely be moving slowly, so the flooding threat is high. The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Yep. The main concern is the flooding. As you see, the GFS run makes this a big rainmaker for Mexico. Let's just hope that'll not happen.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Anticyclonic flow is already established across much of the region, so the system should have no issue with wind shear. Atmospheric moisture will be increasing, so that's not an issue either.

[Yellow Evan]

Weak rain maker TS.

[Extratropical94]

50% until day 5.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT THU MAY 29 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure is expected to form a few hundred miles
south of southeastern Mexico late this weekend. Environmental
conditions should become conducive for gradual development of this
system by early next week as it drifts northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT FRI MAY 30 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of disturbed weather has formed several hundred miles south
of southeastern Mexico. This activity is currently poorly organized,
but environmental conditions should become conducive for gradual
development of this system during the next few days as it drifts
northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

$$
Forecaster Avila

[Yellow Evan]

Peak



Landfall

[hurricanes1234]

The convection is strong and the structure is looking more organized. I'd say this definitely has a chance of developing.

[cycloneye]

Up to 20%-60%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT FRI MAY 30 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A large area of disturbed weather located several hundred miles
south of southeastern Mexico remains poorly organized. However,
environmental conditions are forecast to become conducive for
gradual development of this system during the next few days as it
drifts northward toward the Gulf of Tehuantepec.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent

$$
Forecaster Avila

[hurricanes1234]

Steadily increasing chances. I'd say that Invest 93E is almost imminent, because I noticed that invests are usually classified around 20% or 30% in 2 day forecast, plus, it has a high chance of development in 5 days.

[cycloneye]

Excerpt from the 22:05 UTC TWD.

A VERY SLOW MOVING TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN
NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA BORDER TO 03N82W TO 10N84W. SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90-120 NM W OF
THE WAVE AXIS. THIS FEATURE REMAINS DIFFICULT TO DISCERN IN
GLOBAL MODELS. HOWEVER...THE GLOBAL MODELS DO ALL TRACK A WEAK
LOW WHICH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR 11.5N95W AT 1010 MB AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE TO NEAR 11N96W THIS EVENING...THEN MAY SLOWLY
DRIFT E THROUGH 48 HOURS. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM IN THE SW SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW. THE
LOW MAY DEEPEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS/MERGES WITH VORTICITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AT
LEAST FRESH LEVELS NEAR THE LOW THIS WEEKEND WITH SEAS BUILDING
TO 8-9 FT ON THE S SIDE OF THE LOW CIRCULATION AS LOCALLY
GENERATED WIND WAVES COMBINE WITH LONG PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL
SW SWELL.

[cycloneye]

Up to 30%/70%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT FRI MAY 30 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of
southeastern Mexico is gradually becoming better organized.
Environmental conditions are expected to become increasingly
conducive for continued development of this system during the next
few days as it drifts northward toward the Gulf of Tehuantepec.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

$$
Forecaster Blake

[Steve820]

The new TWO makes it seem like this will become something big. It'll probably only peak as a strong TS or a C1 though, and it's also becoming better and better organized. I personally predict a peak of 65-80 mph out of this thing. Mexico might need to look out for future-Boris! It could get destructive out there!