2014 EPAC Season

xtyphooncyclonex · #361 Postby **xtyphooncyclonex** » Fri May 30, 2014 6:47 pm

I'm quite excited to track another storm. Now at 70%? Sounds like at least a 45 knot TS is the most likely outcome, and definitely NOT a major huricane.

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hurricanes1234 · #362 Postby **hurricanes1234** » Fri May 30, 2014 6:48 pm

They said that conditions are becoming increasingly conducive. I believe we will have our second tropical cyclone by the end of this week.

NOT OFFICIAL.

#363 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Fri May 30, 2014 6:54 pm

xtyphooncyclonex wrote:I'm quite excited to track another storm. Now at 70%? Sounds like at least a 45 knot TS is the most likely outcome, and definitely NOT a major huricane.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

We could get a hurricane out of this IMO. Storms near the GOT tend to spin up rapidly. (See also: Barbara 13)

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

#364 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Fri May 30, 2014 7:06 pm

GFS takes it to 987 mbar. So, a Cat 1 hurricane.

xtyphooncyclonex · #365 Postby **xtyphooncyclonex** » Fri May 30, 2014 7:30 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:
xtyphooncyclonex wrote:I'm quite excited to track another storm. Now at 70%? Sounds like at least a 45 knot TS is the most likely outcome, and definitely NOT a major huricane.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

We could get a hurricane out of this IMO. Storms near the GOT tend to spin up rapidly. (See also: Barbara 13)

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

IMO, for the most, this could be stronger and better organized than Hurricane Barbara 2013. Conditions now are better and that last year had cool neutral and this year has an El Niño. SSTs now are a lot warmer now than during Barbara 2013. Hurricane Boris could happen.

hurricanes1234 · #366 Postby **hurricanes1234** » Fri May 30, 2014 7:40 pm

I would agree with that. Invest 93E seems to be imminent now that it has reached 30% in 2 days.

Not official.

TropicalAnalystwx13 · #367 Postby **TropicalAnalystwx13** » Fri May 30, 2014 9:11 pm

xtyphooncyclonex wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:
xtyphooncyclonex wrote:I'm quite excited to track another storm. Now at 70%? Sounds like at least a 45 knot TS is the most likely outcome, and definitely NOT a major huricane.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

We could get a hurricane out of this IMO. Storms near the GOT tend to spin up rapidly. (See also: Barbara 13)

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

IMO, for the most, this could be stronger and better organized than Hurricane Barbara 2013. Conditions now are better and that last year had cool neutral and this year has an El Niño. SSTs now are a lot warmer now than during Barbara 2013. Hurricane Boris could happen.

I wouldn't completely rule out a hurricane, but this is developing in a region of very high precipitable water, meaning the system is likely to be large and very convective. Those usually take a while to spin up (but do indeed intensify quickly once an inner core is developed).

#368 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri May 30, 2014 10:17 pm

Invest 93E is up

#369 Postby **CrazyC83** » Sun Jun 01, 2014 7:03 pm

Has there ever been an EPAC season with multiple retired names? I wouldn't be surprised to see that in 2014 in the Pacific.

#370 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Sun Jun 01, 2014 7:06 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Has there ever been an EPAC season with multiple retired names? I wouldn't be surprised to see that in 2014 in the Pacific.

1997 had Pauline and Paka. 1982 just had Iwa, but IMO had storms that should have been retired.

#371 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jun 02, 2014 4:15 pm

Let's see how many ACE units the new TC racks up. EPAC is to a very fast start.

Hurricaneman · #372 Postby **Hurricaneman** » Mon Jun 02, 2014 11:46 pm

cycloneye wrote:Let's see how many ACE units the new TC racks up. EPAC is to a very fast start.

Not really that surprising since El Nino seems to be coming on

hurricanes1234 · #373 Postby **hurricanes1234** » Wed Jun 04, 2014 5:21 am

Models aren't showing anything worthwhile for the majority of June. This month may be inactive.

#374 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Wed Jun 04, 2014 1:31 pm

hurricanes1234 wrote:Models aren't showing anything worthwhile for the majority of June. This month may be inactive.

A Kevlin Wave and MJO are coming. Next week or so should be quiet, which is typical of El Nino years.

#375 Postby **Ntxw** » Wed Jun 04, 2014 1:41 pm

I agree, could be a very strong MJO about to traverse from the Maritime continent/Wpac and eventually CPac and Epac second half of this month. With the Nino/+PDO spatial SST pattern in place won't take much to spark this basin.

#376 Postby **Kingarabian** » Wed Jun 04, 2014 3:27 pm

Ntxw wrote::uarrow: I agree, could be a very strong MJO about to traverse from the Maritime continent/Wpac and eventually CPac and Epac second half of this month. With the Nino/+PDO spatial SST pattern in place won't take much to spark this basin.

Yep. Right now it seems like any low with decent convection has a shot at becoming a hurricane. Should be a fun season. Hope they're all fishes.

supercane4867 · #377 Postby **supercane4867** » Thu Jun 05, 2014 2:48 pm

12Z ECMWF has Cristina as a decent hurricane out to sea

TropicalAnalystwx13 · #378 Postby **TropicalAnalystwx13** » Thu Jun 05, 2014 4:30 pm

The HWRF and ECMWF develop this area of low pressure in the monsoon trough into a hurricane over the coming days. We'll see what happens.

#379 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Thu Jun 05, 2014 5:51 pm

It was in the GFS run as a TS a few days ago, but it dropped it. Still, lots of uncertainty; ECMWF develops it much further on than the HWRF.

#380 Postby **Kingarabian** » Thu Jun 05, 2014 7:52 pm

supercane4867 wrote:12Z ECMWF has Cristina as a decent hurricane out to sea

The conservative ECMWF has now become bullish!

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