201405310000 11.5 -96 20
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cycloneye wrote:Officially is not a invest as no best track by ATCF has been released. For sure it will be soon.
hurricanes1234 wrote:The latest discussion says it's dealing with considerable northerly shear. If the shear does not abate, it might hinder or delay development.
A BROAD 1007 MB AREA OF LOW PRES IS LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED
MILES S OF SE MEXICO NEAR 12.3N95.5W. THE LOW PRES IS UNDER THE
EASTERN PORTION OF AN UPPER RIDGE...AND IS UNDERGOING
CONSIDERABLE NORTHERLY SHEAR. AS A RESULT PULSES OF CONVECTION
ARE LOCATED ABOUT 120 NM TO THE SW OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER. THE
POSITION OF THE LOW PRES IS ESTIMATED BASED ON NEARBY SHIP
OBSERVATIONS AND AN ASCAT SATELLITE PASS FROM 04 UTC. ASSOCIATED
WINDS ARE ALREADY MODERATE TO FRESH IN THE SW QUADRANT WHERE
SEAS ARE 8 TO 9 FT COMBINED WITH SW SWELL. THE LOW WILL DRIFT NE-
E THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE FRESH WINDS EXPAND IN COVERAGE
BUILDING SEAS TO 8-10 FT WITHIN 120 NM IN THE NW SEMICIRCLE BY
48 HOURS. THIS LOW IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND
THE LOW HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
hurricanes1234 wrote:This is what the GFS shows at its peak. It shows a 992 mbar low making landfall.
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