Global model runs discussion

[cycloneye]

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
101 PM EDT FRI MAY 30 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

12Z MODEL UPDATE...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES SEEN IN THE LATEST MODEL OUTPUT THROUGH DAY
5. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGHEST WITH THE TROUGHING EXPECTED IN THE
NW CARIBBEAN AND SW GULF OF MEXICO BY TUE/WED. THE ECMWF REMAINS A
WEAKER SOLUTION THAN THE GFS...BUT THERE IS AGREEMENT ON THE
DEVELOPMENT OF BROAD LOW PRES IN THE GULF OF MEXICO BY TUE. THE
12Z GFS HAS A 45 KT LOW PRES SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TUE
MORNING WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF IS A CONSIDERABLY LESS BULLISH 25 KT.
THE FATE OF THIS LOW WILL HAVE MAJOR IMPACT ON WINDS AND SEAS IN
THE GULFS OF MEXICO AND HONDURAS. THE GFS MOVES THE PACIFIC LOW
INTO SOUTHERN MEXICO BY WED...MOVING THE MID LEVEL ENERGY INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE PACIFIC LOW OFFSHORE
THROUGH NEXT THU. THE 12Z UKMET HOLDS THE PACIFIC LOW OFFSHORE
LIKE THE ECMWF AND IS WEAKER THAN THE ECMWF OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THE GEFS MEAN SHOWS LITTLE VARIATION FROM THE
OPERATIONAL GFS WHILE THE EC ENS MEAN IS NOTABLY FLATTER. THE
FORECAST CONTINUES TO KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
IN THE GULF THROUGH WED. IT REMAINS A BLEND OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF...HEDGING MORE TOWARD THE WEAKER 00Z ECMWF.

[floridasun78]

At 492 hours, The GFS has five cats in the gulf.

http://img842.imageshack.us/img842/6400/eq23a.jpg

cute cat in gulf

[SeGaBob]

12Z GFS appears slightly weaker...It doesn't show the low getting below 1000 mb now. I'm pretty sure this can and will change though.

[cycloneye]

12z ECMWF on day 10 has sheared system in central GOM.

[northjaxpro]

If anything tries to form, I would bet it would be a sheared tropical cyclone. Typically, June systems that form in the GOM usually end up being that way.

[bamajammer4eva]

Latest model runs

00z GFS forms weak low by 120 hrs meandering a while in the BOC while strengthening to weak tropical storm before ejecting NE reaching the FL Panhandle by hr 228

00z Euro deeply suppressed weak circulation into Mexican coast well south of Tx

00z Canadian-weak low forms at 96 hrs, and then meanders inland then back into BOC and hanging out through hr 240/end of run

[cycloneye]

Note=A reminder that we will remain here posting the model runs and not make a thread for the area unless:

1) There is an actual incipient area of disturbed weather already in place, or
2) It is being mentioned in the extended portion of NHC's Tropical Weather Outlook.

Thank you for your cooperation.

[ronjon]

06z GFS run a little stronger with a 998 mb low into tampa bay next weekend.

[Alyono]

there is already an area of disturbed weather for this system. It's in the EPAC. It will help contribute to the broad area of low pressure

[Dean4Storms]

there is already an area of disturbed weather for this system. It's in the EPAC. It will help contribute to the broad area of low pressure

I was going to say the same thing, it is also getting mentions by NHC. Don't know why a difference in posting a separate thread of an area like this on the other side of Mexico compared to Cuba if it is forecast to cross land and eventually develop by most guidance.

[Alyono]

its not really the EPAC Disturbance that develops, however. It adds energy to a broad low that is forecast to form

[SeGaBob]

So is the blob of energy in the northern gulf going to contribute anything to this broad area of low pressure that's supposed to form? I didn't want to make a new thread for it so I'm asking here.

[SeGaBob]

This is basically on top of me at 264 hours... but i'm sure it'll change that far out.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _watl.html



EDIT: made it a link because the image won't work.

[SFLcane]

[cycloneye]

12z GFS begins things in BOC in 90 hours.



At 180 hours it has a 997 pressure and lopsided.

[Dean4Storms]

And that 12z run has it getting down to 994mb last I looked.

Also land fall about 100 miles north of Tampa. So at this point I'd say that the GFS is forecasting a moderate TS with landfall from Panhandle to Tampa somewhere.

[Dean4Storms]

12z GGEM with a moderate TS stalled in the South-Central Gulf over the weekend into Tuesday the 10th.

[Dean4Storms]

#20 GEFS Member keeps it in the Yucatan Channel for several days then ENE across extreme southern Florida as a Hurricane @ 90kts, with Miami area getting hurricane winds. Lets hope that one is wrong!

[WeatherEmperor]

#20 GEFS Member keeps it in the Yucatan Channel for several days then ENE across extreme southern Florida as a Hurricane @ 90kts, with Miami area getting hurricane winds. Lets hope that one is wrong!

Can you post a graphic of this model?

Sent from my HTC EVO 4G LTE

[jlauderdal]

#20 GEFS Member keeps it in the Yucatan Channel for several days then ENE across extreme southern Florida as a Hurricane @ 90kts, with Miami area getting hurricane winds. Lets hope that one is wrong!

Can you post a graphic of this model?

Sent from my HTC EVO 4G LTE

gfs with a strike on southern florida; usually it waits until mid july to start hitting us throughout the season; one of these times it will verify but early june i doubt this is it