EPAC: BORIS - Remnants
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- TheAustinMan
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E
Fairly broad circulation as relayed by the latest ASCAT pass.
ASCAT data - http://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/data ... TBData.php
Satellite data - http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html
ASCAT data - http://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/data ... TBData.php
Satellite data - http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html
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- cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E -70% / 90%
EP, 93, 2014060118, , BEST, 0, 119N, 942W, 25, 1007, LO
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- Yellow Evan
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E -70% / 90%
NAM keeps it offshore for a bit.
GFS has it closer to the coast, but moving very slowly. High rain threat IMO.
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- TropicalAnalystwx13
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Starting to think that it won't be until Tuesday or Wednesday when this is classified. Convective activity is lacking and the circulation, while closed, is very broad. This is a classic example of monsoonal development, and systems like these take days to organize substantially (remember Alex 2010?).
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- Steve820
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I think this will become a depression tomorrow or Tuesday. I predict a peak of around 50-60 mph. The guys in southern Mexico/Guatemala need to prepare, since it could get destructive or deadly! I think us in SoCal are lucky because the Central Americans are getting from this invest and we're doing this: and !!
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Hurricanes are an amazing natural phenomena. While many are spiraling pits of evil that kill people or cause devastation, some are tame and stay clear of land.
I wish for you to
I wish for you to
- cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E -70% / 90%
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SUN JUN 1 2014
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
An area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south-southeast
of Puerto Angel, Mexico, is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. This disturbance has changed little over the past
several hours. Environmental conditions are expected to become
conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form
during the next couple of days while the low drifts northwestward,
and then northward later in the week. Regardless of tropical
cyclone formation, this system is expected to produce locally heavy
rains across portions of western Central America and southeastern
Mexico this week. These rains could cause life-threatening flash
floods and mud slides in areas of mountainous terrain.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
$$
Forecaster Pasch
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SUN JUN 1 2014
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
An area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south-southeast
of Puerto Angel, Mexico, is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. This disturbance has changed little over the past
several hours. Environmental conditions are expected to become
conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form
during the next couple of days while the low drifts northwestward,
and then northward later in the week. Regardless of tropical
cyclone formation, this system is expected to produce locally heavy
rains across portions of western Central America and southeastern
Mexico this week. These rains could cause life-threatening flash
floods and mud slides in areas of mountainous terrain.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
$$
Forecaster Pasch
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- Yellow Evan
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Re:
CrazyC83 wrote:This could be a big land impacting storm though...major flood potential.
Not sure if this is from 93E, but it may have already killed 6:
http://translate.google.com/translate?h ... 6bih%3D635
https://translate.google.com/translate? ... edit-text=
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- cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E - 70% / 90%
No change as it continues stationary.
EP, 93, 2014060200, , BEST, 0, 119N, 942W, 25, 1007, LO
EP, 93, 2014060200, , BEST, 0, 119N, 942W, 25, 1007, LO
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- Kingarabian
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E - 70% / 90%
cycloneye wrote:No change as it continues stationary.
EP, 93, 2014060200, , BEST, 0, 119N, 942W, 25, 1007, LO
Euro so far spot on on it being stationary.
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RIP Kobe Bryant
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I know it may be a little early, but I'm starting to question development ever so slightly.
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- TropicalAnalystwx13
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- cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E - 70% / 90%
If convection doesn't begin to concentrate over the LLC soon IMO NHC may have to go down from the 70%/90% range that has been for the past 24 hours.
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Why the lack of convection?
Why the convection is lacking, I don't know, as the waters are more than warm enough, the shear is low, and the air seems to be reasonably moist. Anyway, if this busts (not saying it would), it would be good news for Mexico.
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TXPZ22 KNES 020024
TCSENP
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (93E)
B. 01/2345Z
C. 11.8N
D. 93.9W
E. FIVE/GOES-E
F. TOO WEAK
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...THIS SYSTEM IS TOO WEAK TO CLASSIFY DUE TO LACK OF
CONVECTION AROUND CENTER. THIS WILL BE FINAL POSITION UNTIL REQUIREMENTS
ARE MET.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...SWANSON
TCSENP
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (93E)
B. 01/2345Z
C. 11.8N
D. 93.9W
E. FIVE/GOES-E
F. TOO WEAK
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...THIS SYSTEM IS TOO WEAK TO CLASSIFY DUE TO LACK OF
CONVECTION AROUND CENTER. THIS WILL BE FINAL POSITION UNTIL REQUIREMENTS
ARE MET.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...SWANSON
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- Yellow Evan
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Re: Why the lack of convection?
hurricanes1234 wrote:Why the convection is lacking, I don't know, as the waters are more than warm enough, the shear is low, and the air seems to be reasonably moist. Anyway, if this busts (not saying it would), it would be good news for Mexico.
There'd still be heavy rains regardless.
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I personally don't think this will develop...but with the convection being stretched out some a more widespread area will get heavy rain than if it consolidated.
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- Yellow Evan
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Re:
SeGaBob wrote:I personally don't think this will develop...but with the convection being stretched out some a more widespread area will get heavy rain than if it consolidated.
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Why not? It has a few days left over favorable conditions. Wind shear is low and SSTS are very warm.
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- Kingarabian
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E - 70% / 90%
cycloneye wrote:If convection doesn't begin to concentrate over the LLC soon IMO NHC may have to go down from the 70%/90% range that has been for the past 24 hours.
I think they'll leave it. The system has a defined LLC and any consistent increase of convection will probably put it over the top.
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RIP Kobe Bryant
Yellow Evan It hasn't really been taking advantage of these favorable conditions yet...and the convection seems stretched out a lot. Maybe it might start upwelling cooler water because of it moving slow. I do see your point though and I may be wrong.
Edit: I keep spotting spelling problems...
Edit: I keep spotting spelling problems...
Last edited by SeGaBob on Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:37 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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