EPAC: BORIS - Remnants

[Yellow Evan]

It's hasn't really been taking advantage of these favorable conditions yet...and the convection seems stretched out a lot. Maybe it might start upwelling cooler water because of it moving slow. I do see your point though and I may be wrong.

As TAWX mentioned earlier, anticyclone aloft was just established of the system. Given that the storm is weak, SST upwelling is not an issue, at least for now. Yes, it has a broad circulation, but at least it is well-defined.

[Kingarabian]

It's hasn't really been taking advantage of these favorable conditions yet...and the convection seems stretched out a lot. Maybe it might start upwelling cooler water because of it moving slow. I do see your point though and I may be wrong.

I don't think this system is strong enough to initiate the phenomenon of upwelling.

[SeGaBob]

It's hasn't really been taking advantage of these favorable conditions yet...and the convection seems stretched out a lot. Maybe it might start upwelling cooler water because of it moving slow. I do see your point though and I may be wrong.

I don't think this system is strong enough to initiate the phenomenon of upwelling.

I didn't think it mattered... it shows how much I know.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Best it has looked so far, with signs of spiral banding to the SW and NE. Center needs to consolidate in order for more centralized convection to develop. It's getting there...slowly.

[supercane4867]

Satellite data indicate that a low pressure system located a few
hundred miles south-southeast of Puerto Angel, Mexico, is gradually
becoming better defined. Showers and thunderstorms have increased
near the center during the past several hours and upper-level winds
are also becoming more conducive for tropical cyclone development to
occur. A tropical depression could form later today or early
Tuesday while the low moves slowly northwestward. Regardless of
tropical cyclone formation, this system is expected to produce
locally heavy rains across portions of western Central America and
southeastern Mexico this week. These rains could cause
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides in areas of mountainous
terrain.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

[Kingarabian]

Convection is consolidating over the center now.

[Kingarabian]

Classification could be soon.

[cycloneye]

ASCAT pass shows a well defined low and some 25kt vectors.

[hurricanes1234]

Looks a lot better this morning. There is abundant deep convection and it has become more compact. I would personally expect classification by 8 AM PDT.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON JUN 2 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure area
located about 275 miles south-southeast of Salina Cruz, Mexico, have
become a little better organized overnight and early this morning.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development
and a tropical cyclone could form later today or Tuesday while the
low moves slowly northwestward to northward. Regardless of tropical
cyclone formation, this system is expected to produce locally heavy
rains across portions of western Central America and southeastern
Mexico this week. These rains could cause life-threatening flash
floods and mud slides in areas of mountainous terrain.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

$$
Forecaster Brown

[Yellow Evan]

Looks MUCH better this morning. Almost looks like a TD IMO.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Wow. A significant increase in convection and organization. Yes, I agree that TD status could come soon. Shear now over the track ahead is quite low, favoring intensification and letting this system able to consolidate more.

[Yellow Evan]

0z GFS brings it to 999mbar. 6z GFS from Levi's site is malfunctioning.

[zeehag]

i still see the model taking it thru opposite direction tehuantepec and to cuba and some florida....could still be a viable alternative to pacific development??

[cycloneye]

EP, 93, 2014060212, , BEST, 0, 126N, 936W, 25, 1003, LO

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Looks close to designation.

[SeGaBob]

It looks like it's come a long way after I said all that stuff about it not forming last night...

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT MON JUN 2 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure area
located about 250 miles south-southeast of Salina Cruz, Mexico, have
continued to become better organized this morning. Environmental
conditions are conducive for additional development and a tropical
depression is likely to form later today or tonight as the low moves
slowly northeastward or northward. Locally heavy rainfall associated
with this system is already affecting portions of western Central
America, and is expected to spread over southeastern Mexico during
the next couple of days. These rains could cause life-threatening
flash floods and mud slides in areas of mountainous terrain.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

$$
Forecaster Brown

[Kingarabian]

Looks REALLY good. This is close as it gets:






Really resembles a Tropical Storm. I wonder if it's because there wasn't any 30kt vectors in that ASCAT pass.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[N2FSU]

Headed to Cancun in the morning for a long awaited 10 day vacation.
Great timing.