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1746 100 NEWPORT ROCK NE 4260 9933 REPORT OF 80 TO 100 MPH WINDS REPORTED.Significant Severe Weather Outbreak Tue-Wed (6/2-3)
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Extratropical94
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South Texas Storms
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 4198
- Joined: Thu Jun 24, 2010 12:28 am
- Location: Houston, TX
Re: Significant Severe Weather Outbreak Tue-Wed (6/2-3)
Upgrade to High-Risk on the 20z update for high-winds.
"DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 PM CDT TUE JUN 03 2014
VALID 032000Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN
NEBRASKA...WESTERN AND SOUTHERN IOWA...AND FAR NORTHEAST MISSOURI
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING...
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK FROM
PARTS OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN NEBRASKA TO NORTHERN MISSOURI AND
WESTERN ILLINOIS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK
AREA FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY/MIDWEST...
...SUMMARY...
AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE STORMS IS FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT FROM PARTS OF NEBRASKA THROUGH IOWA...NORTHERN
MISSOURI...AND INTO ILLINOIS. DESTRUCTIVE WINDS...VERY LARGE
HAIL...AND A COUPLE OF STRONG TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED.
...NEB TO IA/MO THROUGH LATE EVENING...
AN ONGOING BOW THAT HAS BEEN PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND VERY LARGE
HAIL /EXCEEDING 2-2.5 INCH DIAMETER/ IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS ESEWD
THROUGH ERN NEB INTO WRN AND SRN IA THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT DOWNSTREAM OF THIS BOW INTO SRN
IA HAS BEEN DESTABILIZING WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR ALREADY SUPPORTIVE OF CONTINUED STORM ORGANIZATION...A
NARROW CORRIDOR FROM MAINLY ERN NEB INTO WRN AND SRN IA HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO A HIGH RISK.
...NRN HIGH PLAINS...
SEVERE PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO INCLUDE MORE OF NWRN
SD...SERN MT AND INTO FAR SWRN ND IN THE SLIGHT RISK FOR MAINLY A
THREAT FOR HAIL AND STRONG/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...A TORNADO
THREAT CANNOT BE RULED OUT. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS...REFER TO SPC
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 795 AND WW 208.
..PETERS.. 06/03/2014
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT TUE JUN 03 2014/
...SYNOPSIS...
FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 70KT MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX
CURRENTLY CROSSING THE GREAT BASIN/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL CREST A
STRONG SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE AND PRODUCE MODEST MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION TO
SPURRING LEE-SIDE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS...LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID/UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG AND NORTH OF A WARM FRONT SITUATED
FROM NEB PANHANDLE ESEWD TO NEAR THE IA/MO BORDER.
A BROAD ZONE OF SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER ERN WY/CO WILL CONSOLIDATE
INTO LEE-CYCLONE AND TRACK TO WRN NEB BY THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL
MESO-LOWS/FRONTAL WAVES MAY FORM AND TRACK EAST ALONG THE WARM
FRONT...AIDED BY LATENT HEATING/DEEP CONVECTION...INTO LATE EVENING.
SOUTH OF THE LOW/WARM FRONT...A DRYLINE/THERMAL TROUGH WILL
STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EXTEND FROM WRN NEB SSWWD
THROUGH WRN KS TO FAR ERN NM.
IN THE EAST...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP LOW PRESSURE NEAR
JAMES BAY WILL CONTINUE EAST FROM ERN GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND.
...SD/NEB TO IA/MO THROUGH LATE EVENING...
INTENSE STORMS POSING PRIMARILY A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL ARE ALREADY
UNDERWAY NORTH OF SFC WARM FRONT AND NEAR THE SD/NE BORDER THIS
MORNING /REF WW 206/. THIS CONVECTION WAS LIKELY ROOTED ABOVE THE
850MB LEVEL IN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STEEPENING MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR. EXPECT THESE ELEVATED STORMS
TO PERSIST GIVEN MASS AND MOISTURE FLUXES NOW UNDERWAY IN RESPONSE
TO LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND DIABATIC PROCESSES.
BY MID-AFTERNOON...ELEVATED STORMS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO... 1) A
REINFORCEMENT OF THE EXISTING LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE/WARM
FRONT...AND 2) A DEEPENING COLD POOL ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT.
MODEST TO LOCALLY STRONG WARM SECTOR SFC HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
WEAKENING INHIBITION AND AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO
BECOME ROOTED IN A VERY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER NEAR THE FRONT BY
LATE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITHIN
THE LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME OVER PARTS OF SD/NEB.
A FEW MODELS SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLATED WARM SECTOR DISCRETE STORMS
BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS CNTRL/ERN NEB. ANY DISCRETE
STORMS INITIATING NEAR THE WARM FRONT WILL EXIST IN AN IDEAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS WITH EFFECTIVE SRH IN EXCESS OF
200 M2/S2 AND RELATIVELY LOW LFC. AWAY FROM THE FRONT AND NEAR THE
DRYLINE...HEATING AND DEEPER MIXING MAY OFFSET THE TORNADO POTENTIAL
SOMEWHAT AND RESULT IN MORE OUTFLOW-DOMINANT STORMS WITH HIGH WIND
AND VERY LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL.
WHILE ABOVE SCENARIO HAS LOW TO MODEST CONFIDENCE...GREATER
CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN THE CONTINUATION AND GRADUAL UPSCALE GROWTH OF
ONGOING CONVECTION INTO AN COMPLEX OF EVEN MORE INTENSE
STORMS...INCLUDING EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS...MOVING ESEWD TO ERN NEB AND
THEN TO SRN IA/NRN MO THROUGH THE LATE EVENING. THIS CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP INTO AN AXIS OF STRONG INSTABILITY /SBCAPE TO 3000-4000 J
PER KG/ COINCIDENT WITH INTENSIFICATION OF A WLY 60-70KT MID-LEVEL
JET. BOTH PARALLEL ARW/NMMB HIRES WINDOWS DEPICT THIS SCENARIO QUITE
WELL BUT STILL OFFER DIFFERING OUTCOMES IN TIME/INTENSITY AND
PLACEMENT OF GREATEST HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
THUS...WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST IN
DERECHO EVOLUTION ACROSS NEB/IA/MO AREA THROUGH THE LATE EVENING.
EXPECT AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE
HAIL...AND A COUPLE OF POTENTIALLY STRONG TORNADOES IN THESE AREAS.
IF CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN THIS WIDESPREAD SEVERE WIND
SCENARIO...A HIGH RISK AREA MAY BE ADDED IN THE AFTERNOON SWODY1
UPDATE.
...ACROSS THE MS RIVER TO IL/IND BEFORE DAYBREAK WED...
MCS/DERECHO SHOULD MAINTAIN DAMAGING WIND AND SOME HAIL POTENTIAL
EAST ACROSS THE MS RIVER AND INTO IL/IND...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
CDT. WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION MAY ACT TO OFFSET MORE
SUBSTANTIAL WIND THREAT WITH TIME...UPSCALE STORM ORGANIZATION AND
CONTINUING LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FOR ASCENT SUGGESTS AT LEAST MODEST
SEVERE WIND PROBABILITIES/SLGT RISK AREA IS WARRANTED AS FAR EAST AS
CENTRAL IND THROUGH DAYBREAK WED.
...LOWER GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY NEWD TO CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...
DIURNAL HEATING OF MIDDLE 60S-LOWER 70S PRE-FRONTAL SFC
DEWPOINTS WILL SUPPORT POCKETS OF MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO 2000 J/KG THIS
AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO OCCUR ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY -- I.E. IN THE WAKE OF A BAND OF WEAK H85-H7 WARM
ADVECTION AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION CROSSING THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS. LOW-LEVEL ASCENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE WEAK...BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ASCENT WILL BE
LOCALLY AUGMENTED BY DIFFERENTIAL-HEATING-INDUCED BAROCLINICITY
AHEAD OF THE ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION -- I.E. ACROSS NRN NY TO THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED BUOYANCY AND 30-40 KT OF MID-LEVEL FLOW...SPORADIC
INSTANCES OF DMGG WINDS AND MARGINALLY SVR HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH CONVECTION PRIMARILY ORGANIZED IN MULTICELL CLUSTERS."
"DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 PM CDT TUE JUN 03 2014
VALID 032000Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN
NEBRASKA...WESTERN AND SOUTHERN IOWA...AND FAR NORTHEAST MISSOURI
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING...
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK FROM
PARTS OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN NEBRASKA TO NORTHERN MISSOURI AND
WESTERN ILLINOIS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK
AREA FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY/MIDWEST...
...SUMMARY...
AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE STORMS IS FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT FROM PARTS OF NEBRASKA THROUGH IOWA...NORTHERN
MISSOURI...AND INTO ILLINOIS. DESTRUCTIVE WINDS...VERY LARGE
HAIL...AND A COUPLE OF STRONG TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED.
...NEB TO IA/MO THROUGH LATE EVENING...
AN ONGOING BOW THAT HAS BEEN PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND VERY LARGE
HAIL /EXCEEDING 2-2.5 INCH DIAMETER/ IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS ESEWD
THROUGH ERN NEB INTO WRN AND SRN IA THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT DOWNSTREAM OF THIS BOW INTO SRN
IA HAS BEEN DESTABILIZING WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR ALREADY SUPPORTIVE OF CONTINUED STORM ORGANIZATION...A
NARROW CORRIDOR FROM MAINLY ERN NEB INTO WRN AND SRN IA HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO A HIGH RISK.
...NRN HIGH PLAINS...
SEVERE PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO INCLUDE MORE OF NWRN
SD...SERN MT AND INTO FAR SWRN ND IN THE SLIGHT RISK FOR MAINLY A
THREAT FOR HAIL AND STRONG/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...A TORNADO
THREAT CANNOT BE RULED OUT. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS...REFER TO SPC
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 795 AND WW 208.
..PETERS.. 06/03/2014
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT TUE JUN 03 2014/
...SYNOPSIS...
FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 70KT MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX
CURRENTLY CROSSING THE GREAT BASIN/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL CREST A
STRONG SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE AND PRODUCE MODEST MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION TO
SPURRING LEE-SIDE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS...LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID/UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG AND NORTH OF A WARM FRONT SITUATED
FROM NEB PANHANDLE ESEWD TO NEAR THE IA/MO BORDER.
A BROAD ZONE OF SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER ERN WY/CO WILL CONSOLIDATE
INTO LEE-CYCLONE AND TRACK TO WRN NEB BY THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL
MESO-LOWS/FRONTAL WAVES MAY FORM AND TRACK EAST ALONG THE WARM
FRONT...AIDED BY LATENT HEATING/DEEP CONVECTION...INTO LATE EVENING.
SOUTH OF THE LOW/WARM FRONT...A DRYLINE/THERMAL TROUGH WILL
STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EXTEND FROM WRN NEB SSWWD
THROUGH WRN KS TO FAR ERN NM.
IN THE EAST...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP LOW PRESSURE NEAR
JAMES BAY WILL CONTINUE EAST FROM ERN GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND.
...SD/NEB TO IA/MO THROUGH LATE EVENING...
INTENSE STORMS POSING PRIMARILY A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL ARE ALREADY
UNDERWAY NORTH OF SFC WARM FRONT AND NEAR THE SD/NE BORDER THIS
MORNING /REF WW 206/. THIS CONVECTION WAS LIKELY ROOTED ABOVE THE
850MB LEVEL IN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STEEPENING MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR. EXPECT THESE ELEVATED STORMS
TO PERSIST GIVEN MASS AND MOISTURE FLUXES NOW UNDERWAY IN RESPONSE
TO LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND DIABATIC PROCESSES.
BY MID-AFTERNOON...ELEVATED STORMS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO... 1) A
REINFORCEMENT OF THE EXISTING LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE/WARM
FRONT...AND 2) A DEEPENING COLD POOL ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT.
MODEST TO LOCALLY STRONG WARM SECTOR SFC HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
WEAKENING INHIBITION AND AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO
BECOME ROOTED IN A VERY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER NEAR THE FRONT BY
LATE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITHIN
THE LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME OVER PARTS OF SD/NEB.
A FEW MODELS SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLATED WARM SECTOR DISCRETE STORMS
BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS CNTRL/ERN NEB. ANY DISCRETE
STORMS INITIATING NEAR THE WARM FRONT WILL EXIST IN AN IDEAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS WITH EFFECTIVE SRH IN EXCESS OF
200 M2/S2 AND RELATIVELY LOW LFC. AWAY FROM THE FRONT AND NEAR THE
DRYLINE...HEATING AND DEEPER MIXING MAY OFFSET THE TORNADO POTENTIAL
SOMEWHAT AND RESULT IN MORE OUTFLOW-DOMINANT STORMS WITH HIGH WIND
AND VERY LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL.
WHILE ABOVE SCENARIO HAS LOW TO MODEST CONFIDENCE...GREATER
CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN THE CONTINUATION AND GRADUAL UPSCALE GROWTH OF
ONGOING CONVECTION INTO AN COMPLEX OF EVEN MORE INTENSE
STORMS...INCLUDING EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS...MOVING ESEWD TO ERN NEB AND
THEN TO SRN IA/NRN MO THROUGH THE LATE EVENING. THIS CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP INTO AN AXIS OF STRONG INSTABILITY /SBCAPE TO 3000-4000 J
PER KG/ COINCIDENT WITH INTENSIFICATION OF A WLY 60-70KT MID-LEVEL
JET. BOTH PARALLEL ARW/NMMB HIRES WINDOWS DEPICT THIS SCENARIO QUITE
WELL BUT STILL OFFER DIFFERING OUTCOMES IN TIME/INTENSITY AND
PLACEMENT OF GREATEST HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
THUS...WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST IN
DERECHO EVOLUTION ACROSS NEB/IA/MO AREA THROUGH THE LATE EVENING.
EXPECT AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE
HAIL...AND A COUPLE OF POTENTIALLY STRONG TORNADOES IN THESE AREAS.
IF CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN THIS WIDESPREAD SEVERE WIND
SCENARIO...A HIGH RISK AREA MAY BE ADDED IN THE AFTERNOON SWODY1
UPDATE.
...ACROSS THE MS RIVER TO IL/IND BEFORE DAYBREAK WED...
MCS/DERECHO SHOULD MAINTAIN DAMAGING WIND AND SOME HAIL POTENTIAL
EAST ACROSS THE MS RIVER AND INTO IL/IND...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
CDT. WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION MAY ACT TO OFFSET MORE
SUBSTANTIAL WIND THREAT WITH TIME...UPSCALE STORM ORGANIZATION AND
CONTINUING LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FOR ASCENT SUGGESTS AT LEAST MODEST
SEVERE WIND PROBABILITIES/SLGT RISK AREA IS WARRANTED AS FAR EAST AS
CENTRAL IND THROUGH DAYBREAK WED.
...LOWER GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY NEWD TO CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...
DIURNAL HEATING OF MIDDLE 60S-LOWER 70S PRE-FRONTAL SFC
DEWPOINTS WILL SUPPORT POCKETS OF MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO 2000 J/KG THIS
AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO OCCUR ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY -- I.E. IN THE WAKE OF A BAND OF WEAK H85-H7 WARM
ADVECTION AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION CROSSING THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS. LOW-LEVEL ASCENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE WEAK...BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ASCENT WILL BE
LOCALLY AUGMENTED BY DIFFERENTIAL-HEATING-INDUCED BAROCLINICITY
AHEAD OF THE ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION -- I.E. ACROSS NRN NY TO THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED BUOYANCY AND 30-40 KT OF MID-LEVEL FLOW...SPORADIC
INSTANCES OF DMGG WINDS AND MARGINALLY SVR HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH CONVECTION PRIMARILY ORGANIZED IN MULTICELL CLUSTERS."
0 likes
-
Extratropical94
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 3538
- Age: 30
- Joined: Wed Oct 20, 2010 6:36 am
- Location: Hamburg, Germany
- Contact:
Re: Re:
RL3AO wrote:Bunkertor wrote:WeatherGuesser wrote:One of the OCMs out of Cape Girardeau was talking about Sat/Sun being bad, maybe worse than today.
OCM ?
on-camera met. (aka tv meteorologist)
Thanks. I did not know this term...
0 likes
-
WeatherGuesser
- Category 5
- Posts: 2672
- Joined: Tue Jun 29, 2010 6:46 am
Re: Significant Severe Weather Outbreak Tue-Wed (6/2-3)
South Texas Storms wrote: ...NEB TO IA/MO THROUGH LATE EVENING...
AN ONGOING BOW THAT HAS BEEN PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND VERY LARGE
HAIL /EXCEEDING 2-2.5 INCH DIAMETER/ IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS ESEWD
THROUGH ERN NEB INTO WRN AND SRN IA THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT DOWNSTREAM OF THIS BOW INTO SRN
IA HAS BEEN DESTABILIZING WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR ALREADY SUPPORTIVE OF CONTINUED STORM ORGANIZATION...A
NARROW CORRIDOR FROM MAINLY ERN NEB INTO WRN AND SRN IA HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO A HIGH RISK.
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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
431 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
NEC077-175-032145-
/O.CON.KGID.TO.W.0015.000000T0000Z-140603T2145Z/
GREELEY NE-VALLEY NE-
431 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM CDT FOR GREELEY
AND NORTHERN VALLEY COUNTIES...
AT 431 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR ELYRIA...OR 7
MILES NORTH OF ORD...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND TENNIS BALL SIZE HAIL.
SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO 8 MILES NORTH OF ORD.
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE
TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS
LIKELY.
THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
GREELEY AND NORTHERN VALLEY COUNTIES.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TO REPEAT...A TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A
BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY
BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
&&
LAT...LON 4142 9830 4153 9876 4163 9921 4174 9921
4174 9830
TIME...MOT...LOC 2131Z 282DEG 42KT 4171 9889
TORNADO...OBSERVED
HAIL...2.50IN
$$
HALBLAUB
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
431 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
NEC077-175-032145-
/O.CON.KGID.TO.W.0015.000000T0000Z-140603T2145Z/
GREELEY NE-VALLEY NE-
431 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM CDT FOR GREELEY
AND NORTHERN VALLEY COUNTIES...
AT 431 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR ELYRIA...OR 7
MILES NORTH OF ORD...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND TENNIS BALL SIZE HAIL.
SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO 8 MILES NORTH OF ORD.
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE
TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS
LIKELY.
THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
GREELEY AND NORTHERN VALLEY COUNTIES.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TO REPEAT...A TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A
BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY
BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
&&
LAT...LON 4142 9830 4153 9876 4163 9921 4174 9921
4174 9830
TIME...MOT...LOC 2131Z 282DEG 42KT 4171 9889
TORNADO...OBSERVED
HAIL...2.50IN
$$
HALBLAUB
0 likes
-
supercane4867
- Category 5
- Posts: 4966
- Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am
Re: Significant Severe Weather Outbreak Tue-Wed (6/2-3)
Some insane values associated with that bow echo, up to 80dBZ at times with VIL completely max out
0 likes
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
501 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
NEC077-175-032230-
/O.CON.KGID.TO.W.0017.000000T0000Z-140603T2230Z/
GREELEY NE-VALLEY NE-
501 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM CDT FOR GREELEY
AND NORTHEASTERN VALLEY COUNTIES...
AT 501 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR GREELEY
CENTER...OR 20 MILES EAST OF ORD...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND THREE INCH HAIL. IN ADDITION...
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS UP TO 70 MPH ARE LIKELY ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THIS STORM.
SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE
TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS
LIKELY.
THIS TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
SPALDING AROUND 510 PM CDT.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
HEAVY RAINFALL MAY HIDE THIS TORNADO. DO NOT WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE
TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW.
&&
LAT...LON 4149 9829 4142 9829 4153 9897 4174 9897
4174 9830
TIME...MOT...LOC 2201Z 274DEG 42KT 4165 9853
TORNADO...OBSERVED
HAIL...3.00IN
$$
HALBLAUB
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
501 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
NEC077-175-032230-
/O.CON.KGID.TO.W.0017.000000T0000Z-140603T2230Z/
GREELEY NE-VALLEY NE-
501 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM CDT FOR GREELEY
AND NORTHEASTERN VALLEY COUNTIES...
AT 501 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR GREELEY
CENTER...OR 20 MILES EAST OF ORD...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND THREE INCH HAIL. IN ADDITION...
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS UP TO 70 MPH ARE LIKELY ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THIS STORM.
SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE
TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS
LIKELY.
THIS TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
SPALDING AROUND 510 PM CDT.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
HEAVY RAINFALL MAY HIDE THIS TORNADO. DO NOT WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE
TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW.
&&
LAT...LON 4149 9829 4142 9829 4153 9897 4174 9897
4174 9830
TIME...MOT...LOC 2201Z 274DEG 42KT 4165 9853
TORNADO...OBSERVED
HAIL...3.00IN
$$
HALBLAUB
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992
WFUS53 KGID 032215
TORGID
NEC125-032245-
/O.NEW.KGID.TO.W.0018.140603T2215Z-140603T2245Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
515 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HASTINGS HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NANCE COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA...
* UNTIL 545 PM CDT
* AT 515 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTH OF
SPALDING...OR 32 MILES EAST OF ORD...MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH.
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND HAIL UP TO THREE INCHES IN DIAMETER.
SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.
* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
BELGRADE AROUND 530 PM CDT.
GENOA AROUND 545 PM CDT.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
HEAVY RAINFALL MAY HIDE THIS TORNADO. DO NOT WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE
TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW.
WFUS53 KGID 032215
TORGID
NEC125-032245-
/O.NEW.KGID.TO.W.0018.140603T2215Z-140603T2245Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
515 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HASTINGS HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NANCE COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA...
* UNTIL 545 PM CDT
* AT 515 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTH OF
SPALDING...OR 32 MILES EAST OF ORD...MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH.
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND HAIL UP TO THREE INCHES IN DIAMETER.
SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.
* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
BELGRADE AROUND 530 PM CDT.
GENOA AROUND 545 PM CDT.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
HEAVY RAINFALL MAY HIDE THIS TORNADO. DO NOT WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE
TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW.
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305
WFUS53 KOAX 032158
TOROAX
IAC155-032230-
/O.NEW.KOAX.TO.W.0009.140603T2158Z-140603T2230Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
458 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN OMAHA HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN POTTAWATTAMIE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST IOWA...
* UNTIL 530 PM CDT
* AT 458 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 7 MILES WEST OF OAKLAND...OR 25 MILES EAST OF
OMAHA...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.
HAZARD...TORNADO.
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.
* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
OAKLAND...CARSON AND MACEDONIA AROUND 505 PM CDT.
OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE FARM
CREEK PUBLIC WILDLIFE AREA AND OLD TOWN PARK.
THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 59 IN IOWA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 41 AND 55.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A
VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND
PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
WFUS53 KOAX 032158
TOROAX
IAC155-032230-
/O.NEW.KOAX.TO.W.0009.140603T2158Z-140603T2230Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
458 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN OMAHA HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN POTTAWATTAMIE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST IOWA...
* UNTIL 530 PM CDT
* AT 458 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 7 MILES WEST OF OAKLAND...OR 25 MILES EAST OF
OMAHA...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.
HAZARD...TORNADO.
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.
* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
OAKLAND...CARSON AND MACEDONIA AROUND 505 PM CDT.
OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE FARM
CREEK PUBLIC WILDLIFE AREA AND OLD TOWN PARK.
THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 59 IN IOWA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 41 AND 55.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A
VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND
PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
520 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
IAC155-032230-
/O.CON.KOAX.TO.W.0009.000000T0000Z-140603T2230Z/
POTTAWATTAMIE IA-
520 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN POTTAWATTAMIE COUNTY...
AT 519 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO
WAS LOCATED NEAR CARSON...OR 18 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ATLANTIC...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.
HAZARD...TORNADO AND BASEBALL SIZE HAIL.
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE
TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS
LIKELY.
REPORTS OF ROOFS BEING BLOWN OFF AND TREES DOWN WERE RECEIVED IN THE
OAKLAND AREA...AROUND 510 PM.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
OAKLAND...CARSON...MACEDONIA...FARM CREEK PUBLIC WILDLIFE AREA AND
OLD TOWN PARK.
THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 59 IN IOWA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 41 AND 52.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A
VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND
PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
520 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
IAC155-032230-
/O.CON.KOAX.TO.W.0009.000000T0000Z-140603T2230Z/
POTTAWATTAMIE IA-
520 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN POTTAWATTAMIE COUNTY...
AT 519 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO
WAS LOCATED NEAR CARSON...OR 18 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ATLANTIC...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.
HAZARD...TORNADO AND BASEBALL SIZE HAIL.
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE
TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS
LIKELY.
REPORTS OF ROOFS BEING BLOWN OFF AND TREES DOWN WERE RECEIVED IN THE
OAKLAND AREA...AROUND 510 PM.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
OAKLAND...CARSON...MACEDONIA...FARM CREEK PUBLIC WILDLIFE AREA AND
OLD TOWN PARK.
THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 59 IN IOWA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 41 AND 52.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A
VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND
PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0799
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0437 PM CDT TUE JUN 03 2014
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB...SRN IA...NRN MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 032137Z - 032300Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SIGNIFICANT TORNADO AND WIND DAMAGE THREAT IS INCREASING
ACROSS PARTS OF FAR ERN NEB INTO SW IA/NRN MO NEAR THE WARM FRONT.
THIS THREAT WILL SHIFT E/SE INTO SE IA/NE MO LATER THIS EVENING. A
NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS...PRIOR TO
THAT...A LOCAL EXTENSION TO THE EAST FOR TORNADO WATCH 207 IS
LIKELY.
DISCUSSION...A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR TORNADOES AND EXTREME
WINDS IS EVOLVING ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-MO VALLEY IN THE VICINITY
OF THE WARM FRONT. THIS FRONT EXTENDS E/SE ACROSS CENTRAL NEB INTO
SW IA AND N-CENTRAL MO. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S AND
STRONG SFC HEATING HAVE RESULTED IN SBCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 4500
J/KG IN THE WARM SECTOR. SUPERCELLS HAVE DEVELOPED ON/NEAR THE WARM
FRONT NEAR THE MO/IA BORDER AND WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR
STRONG WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES. FURTHER UPSTREAM...A BOWING
SEGMENT NEAR OMAHA SHOULD THRIVE IN THIS ENVIRONMENT AND CONTINUE ON
A SEWD TRAJECTORY ALONG THE WARM FRONT/INSTABILITY GRADIENT.
SIGNIFICANT WINDS IN EXCESS OF 65KT WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS BOWING SEGMENT...IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL.
AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES THIS EVENING...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME
MORE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT AS LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS
BECOME MAXIMIZED IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY. ANY SUPERCELLS
THAT CAN REMAIN SEMI-DISCRETE WILL POSE A STRONG/SIGNIFICANT TORNADO
THREAT. EVENTUALLY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GROW UPSCALE INTO A
FORWARD PROPAGATING BOWING QLCS ACROSS SE IA/NE MO WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WIDE SWATH OF EXTREME/DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS THE MCD
AREA.
TORNADO WATCH 207 HAS BEEN EXTENDED EWD FOR THE TIME BEING ACROSS
PARTS OF SRN IA/NRN MO. A NEW WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED IN THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
..LEITMAN/HART.. 06/03/2014
ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...
LAT...LON 41069637 41469639 41749626 41889582 41809503 41529353
41159213 40709150 40379141 40109151 39879167 39639213
39559313 39729423 40059531 40399587 41069637
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0437 PM CDT TUE JUN 03 2014
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB...SRN IA...NRN MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 032137Z - 032300Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SIGNIFICANT TORNADO AND WIND DAMAGE THREAT IS INCREASING
ACROSS PARTS OF FAR ERN NEB INTO SW IA/NRN MO NEAR THE WARM FRONT.
THIS THREAT WILL SHIFT E/SE INTO SE IA/NE MO LATER THIS EVENING. A
NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS...PRIOR TO
THAT...A LOCAL EXTENSION TO THE EAST FOR TORNADO WATCH 207 IS
LIKELY.
DISCUSSION...A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR TORNADOES AND EXTREME
WINDS IS EVOLVING ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-MO VALLEY IN THE VICINITY
OF THE WARM FRONT. THIS FRONT EXTENDS E/SE ACROSS CENTRAL NEB INTO
SW IA AND N-CENTRAL MO. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S AND
STRONG SFC HEATING HAVE RESULTED IN SBCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 4500
J/KG IN THE WARM SECTOR. SUPERCELLS HAVE DEVELOPED ON/NEAR THE WARM
FRONT NEAR THE MO/IA BORDER AND WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR
STRONG WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES. FURTHER UPSTREAM...A BOWING
SEGMENT NEAR OMAHA SHOULD THRIVE IN THIS ENVIRONMENT AND CONTINUE ON
A SEWD TRAJECTORY ALONG THE WARM FRONT/INSTABILITY GRADIENT.
SIGNIFICANT WINDS IN EXCESS OF 65KT WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS BOWING SEGMENT...IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL.
AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES THIS EVENING...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME
MORE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT AS LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS
BECOME MAXIMIZED IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY. ANY SUPERCELLS
THAT CAN REMAIN SEMI-DISCRETE WILL POSE A STRONG/SIGNIFICANT TORNADO
THREAT. EVENTUALLY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GROW UPSCALE INTO A
FORWARD PROPAGATING BOWING QLCS ACROSS SE IA/NE MO WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WIDE SWATH OF EXTREME/DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS THE MCD
AREA.
TORNADO WATCH 207 HAS BEEN EXTENDED EWD FOR THE TIME BEING ACROSS
PARTS OF SRN IA/NRN MO. A NEW WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED IN THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
..LEITMAN/HART.. 06/03/2014
ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...
LAT...LON 41069637 41469639 41749626 41889582 41809503 41529353
41159213 40709150 40379141 40109151 39879167 39639213
39559313 39729423 40059531 40399587 41069637
Last edited by Bunkertor on Tue Jun 03, 2014 5:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0800
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0454 PM CDT TUE JUN 03 2014
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL NEB
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 207...209...
VALID 032154Z - 032330Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 207...209...CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...ONGOING TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITH A CONTINUED
THREAT OF VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 65 KT...AND
TORNADOES. A FEW TORNADOES COULD BE STRONG...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
S-CNTRL NEB.
DISCUSSION...MESOANALYSIS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REVEALS AN
ENVIRONMENT VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS OVER CNTRL NEB. KLNX RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING S OF THE ONGOING
ACTIVITY IN HOOKER AND THOMAS COUNTIES...LIMITING THE TORNADO THREAT
WITH THOSE STORMS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE.
FARTHER E /CNTRL NEB/...SUPERCELL NEAR ODX CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG
LOW-LEVEL ROTATION AND WDSS-II MESH NEAR 3 INCHES. THIS SUPERCELL IS
MOVING INTO A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY DEEP LAYER
SHEAR OF 60 KT...20 KT BACKED SURFACE WINDS...0-3 KM SRH OVER 600
M2/S2...DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S...AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 7
DEG C PER KM. EFFECTIVE-LAYER STP IS 12. ALL OF THESE FACTORS
INDICATE AN ENVIRONMENT CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING A STRONG TORNADO. IT
APPEARS THE ONGOING SUPERCELL WILL HAVE A HIGH PROBABILITY OF
PRODUCING A STRONG TORNADO AS LONG AS THE IT CAN REMAIN
SEMI-DISCRETE AND AVOID NEGATIVE STORM INTERACTIONS.
ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT S OF THE ONGOING STORMS /SUCH AS THE
RECENT UPDRAFT IN CUSTER COUNTY/ IN THIS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WOULD
LIKELY BE SUPERCELLULAR AS LONG AS IT CAN REMAIN DISCRETE.
..MOSIER.. 06/03/2014
ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...
LAT...LON 41820132 42080035 41959845 41679766 41379700 40799667
40079695 39979884 40860182 41820132
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0454 PM CDT TUE JUN 03 2014
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL NEB
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 207...209...
VALID 032154Z - 032330Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 207...209...CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...ONGOING TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITH A CONTINUED
THREAT OF VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 65 KT...AND
TORNADOES. A FEW TORNADOES COULD BE STRONG...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
S-CNTRL NEB.
DISCUSSION...MESOANALYSIS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REVEALS AN
ENVIRONMENT VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS OVER CNTRL NEB. KLNX RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING S OF THE ONGOING
ACTIVITY IN HOOKER AND THOMAS COUNTIES...LIMITING THE TORNADO THREAT
WITH THOSE STORMS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE.
FARTHER E /CNTRL NEB/...SUPERCELL NEAR ODX CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG
LOW-LEVEL ROTATION AND WDSS-II MESH NEAR 3 INCHES. THIS SUPERCELL IS
MOVING INTO A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY DEEP LAYER
SHEAR OF 60 KT...20 KT BACKED SURFACE WINDS...0-3 KM SRH OVER 600
M2/S2...DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S...AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 7
DEG C PER KM. EFFECTIVE-LAYER STP IS 12. ALL OF THESE FACTORS
INDICATE AN ENVIRONMENT CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING A STRONG TORNADO. IT
APPEARS THE ONGOING SUPERCELL WILL HAVE A HIGH PROBABILITY OF
PRODUCING A STRONG TORNADO AS LONG AS THE IT CAN REMAIN
SEMI-DISCRETE AND AVOID NEGATIVE STORM INTERACTIONS.
ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT S OF THE ONGOING STORMS /SUCH AS THE
RECENT UPDRAFT IN CUSTER COUNTY/ IN THIS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WOULD
LIKELY BE SUPERCELLULAR AS LONG AS IT CAN REMAIN DISCRETE.
..MOSIER.. 06/03/2014
ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...
LAT...LON 41820132 42080035 41959845 41679766 41379700 40799667
40079695 39979884 40860182 41820132
0 likes
-
USTropics
- Category 5
- Posts: 2635
- Joined: Sun Aug 12, 2007 3:45 am
- Location: Florida State University
Re: Significant Severe Weather Outbreak Tue-Wed (6/2-3)
Here is a link to some video footage of the central Nebraska tornado from earlier today (along with a few pictures of the hail/wind damage):
http://www.cnn.com/2014/06/03/us/severe ... ?hpt=hp_t2
http://www.cnn.com/2014/06/03/us/severe ... ?hpt=hp_t2
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Re: Significant Severe Weather Outbreak Tue-Wed (6/2-3)
I'm surprised these images haven't been posted yet. I saw them posted on Reddit, so their authenticity may be questionable. But google image search seems to indicate they were all posted since yesterday's storms.
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