2014 WPAC Season

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euro6208

Re: 2014 WPAC Season

#221 Postby euro6208 » Fri May 30, 2014 11:22 am

Will we have a new member to the +155 knot club this year? :D

1952258N18178 1952091718 160.0 13W:OLIVE
1952258N18178 1952091800 160.0 13W:OLIVE
1952296N06152 1952102600 160.0 20W:WILMA
1952296N06152 1952102606 160.0 20W:WILMA
1952363N07170 1952123112 160.0 28W:HESTER
1952363N07170 1952123118 160.0 28W:HESTER
1952363N07170 1953010100 160.0 28W:HESTER
1953219N08155 1953081118 160.0 08W:NINA
1953219N08155 1953081200 160.0 08W:NINA
1953219N08155 1953081206 160.0 08W:NINA
1953219N08155 1953081212 160.0 08W:NINA
1953219N08155 1953081218 160.0 08W:NINA
1953219N08155 1953081300 160.0 08W:NINA
1953219N08155 1953081306 160.0 08W:NINA
1953219N08155 1953081312 160.0 08W:NINA
1953219N08155 1953081318 160.0 08W:NINA
1953219N08155 1953081400 160.0 08W:NINA
1955346N06142 1955121512 180.0 22W:RUTH
1955346N06142 1955121518 165.0 22W:RUTH
1956207N13145 1956073000 155.0 06W:WANDA
1956207N13145 1956073006 160.0 06W:WANDA
1956207N13145 1956073012 155.0 06W:WANDA
1956207N13145 1956073018 155.0 06W:WANDA
1957311N06171 1957111606 160.0 20W:LOLA
1957311N06171 1957111612 160.0 20W:LOLA
1958143N06158 1958052818 155.0 02W:PHYLLIS
1958143N06158 1958052900 160.0 02W:PHYLLIS
1958240N08146 1958090112 160.0 13W:GRACE
1958240N08146 1958090118 165.0 13W:GRACE
1958240N08146 1958090200 165.0 13W:GRACE
1958240N08146 1958090206 160.0 13W:GRACE
1958263N13148 1958092406 160.0 15W:IDA
1958263N13148 1958092412 175.0 15W:IDA
1958263N13148 1958092418 175.0 15W:IDA
1958263N13148 1958092500 175.0 15W:IDA
1958263N13148 1958092506 175.0 15W:IDA
1958263N13148 1958092512 175.0 15W:IDA
1958263N13148 1958092518 160.0 15W:IDA
1959236N12139 1959082818 155.0 JOAN:JOAN(-)1
1959236N12139 1959082900 165.0 JOAN:JOAN(-)1
1959236N12139 1959082906 170.0 JOAN:JOAN(-)1
1959236N12139 1959082912 160.0 JOAN:JOAN(-)1
1959254N14148 1959091500 160.0 SARAH
1959254N14148 1959091506 165.0 SARAH
1959263N11160 1959092306 155.0 VERA
1959263N11160 1959092312 165.0 VERA
1959263N11160 1959092318 165.0 VERA
1959263N11160 1959092400 155.0 VERA
1959263N11160 1959092406 155.0 VERA
1959263N11160 1959092412 155.0 VERA
1959263N11160 1959092418 155.0 VERA
1959263N11160 1959092500 155.0 VERA
1961248N18155 1961091112 155.0 PAMELA
1961250N07173 1961091000 160.0 NANCY
1961250N07173 1961091006 165.0 NANCY
1961250N07173 1961091012 175.0 NANCY
1961250N07173 1961091018 175.0 NANCY
1961250N07173 1961091100 180.0 NANCY
1961250N07173 1961091106 180.0 NANCY
1961250N07173 1961091112 180.0 NANCY
1961250N07173 1961091118 180.0 NANCY
1961250N07173 1961091200 185.0 NANCY
1961250N07173 1961091206 180.0 NANCY
1961250N07173 1961091212 180.0 NANCY
1961250N07173 1961091218 170.0 NANCY
1961250N07173 1961091300 170.0 NANCY
1961250N07173 1961091306 160.0 NANCY
1961250N07173 1961091312 160.0 NANCY
1961276N22152 1961100618 160.0 VIOLET
1961276N22152 1961100700 175.0 VIOLET
1961276N22152 1961100706 180.0 VIOLET
1961276N22152 1961100712 170.0 VIOLET
1962224N11151 1962081618 160.0 RUTH:SARAH
1962224N11151 1962081700 160.0 RUTH:SARAH
1962311N06154 1962110900 160.0 KAREN
1962311N06154 1962110906 160.0 KAREN
1962311N06154 1962110912 155.0 KAREN
1962311N06154 1962110918 155.0 KAREN
1962311N06154 1962111300 160.0 KAREN
1962311N06154 1962111306 160.0 KAREN
1964247N09159 1964090618 155.0 SALLY
1964247N09159 1964090700 165.0 SALLY
1964247N09159 1964090706 170.0 SALLY
1964247N09159 1964090712 165.0 SALLY
1964247N09159 1964090718 160.0 SALLY
1964247N09159 1964090800 160.0 SALLY
1964247N09159 1964090806 160.0 SALLY
1964247N09159 1964090812 160.0 SALLY
1964319N08141 1964111800 155.0 LOUISE:MARGE
1964319N08141 1964111806 165.0 LOUISE:MARGE
1964319N08141 1964111812 165.0 LOUISE:MARGE
1964319N08141 1964111818 160.0 LOUISE:MARGE
1964344N06153 1964121200 155.0 OPAL
1964344N06153 1964121206 160.0 OPAL
1964344N06153 1964121212 165.0 OPAL
1964344N06153 1964121218 170.0 OPAL
1964344N06153 1964121300 170.0 OPAL
1964344N06153 1964121306 170.0 OPAL
1964344N06153 1964121312 170.0 OPAL
1964344N06153 1964121318 170.0 OPAL
1964344N06153 1964121400 170.0 OPAL
1965161N09151 1965061706 160.0 DINAH
1966171N09151 1966062600 170.0 KIT
1966171N09151 1966062606 170.0 KIT
1966171N09151 1966062612 170.0 KIT
1967241N15170 1967090312 155.0 OPAL
1967283N11150 1967101418 160.0 CARLA
1967283N11150 1967101500 160.0 CARLA
1967283N11150 1967101506 155.0 CARLA
1971311N06141 1971111118 155.0 IRMA
1971311N06141 1971111200 155.0 IRMA
1973274N10137 1973100600 160.0 NORA
1975319N08146 1975111912 160.0 JUNE
1979275N05159 1979101200 160.0 TIP
1979275N05159 1979101206 165.0 TIP
1979275N05159 1979101212 165.0 TIP
1979275N05159 1979101218 155.0 TIP
1984294N04163 1984102612 155.0 VANESSA

Recon ends in 1987

1992277N16140 1992101318 155.0 YVETTE
1992277N16140 1992101400 155.0 YVETTE
1992318N06182 1992112018 155.0 GAY
1992318N06182 1992112100 160.0 GAY
1992318N06182 1992112106 155.0 GAY
1995293N05177 1995110100 155.0 ANGELA
1995293N05177 1995110106 155.0 ANGELA
1995293N05177 1995110112 155.0 ANGELA
1995293N05177 1995110118 155.0 ANGELA
1995293N05177 1995110200 155.0 ANGELA
1995293N05177 1995110206 155.0 ANGELA
1995293N05177 1995110212 155.0 ANGELA
1997283N07177 1997101712 155.0 IVAN
1997283N07177 1997101718 160.0 IVAN
1997284N04179 1997101706 160.0 JOAN
1997284N04179 1997101712 160.0 JOAN
1997299N07169 1997110112 155.0 KEITH:KETTH
1997299N07169 1997110218 155.0 KEITH:KETTH
1997333N06194 1997121718 155.0 PAKA:PAKA
1997333N06194 1997121800 160.0 PAKA:PAKA
1998281N11151 1998101312 155.0 ZEB
1998281N11151 1998101318 155.0 ZEB
1998281N11151 1998101400 155.0 ZEB
2000125N06136 2000050918 155.0 DAMRCY:DAMREY
2001347N04162 2001122300 155.0 FAXAI
2004164N06139 2004061606 155.0 DIANMU
2004164N06139 2004061612 155.0 DIANMU
2004164N06139 2004061618 155.0 DIANMU
2004230N09172 2004082300 155.0 CHABA
2004230N09172 2004082306 155.0 CHABA
2004230N09172 2004082312 155.0 CHABA
2004230N09172 2004082318 155.0 CHABA
2004230N09172 2004082400 155.0 CHABA
2004230N09172 2004082418 155.0 CHABA
2009325N06148 2009112512 155.0 NIDA
2009325N06148 2009112518 155.0 NIDA
2010285N13145 2010101712 160.0 MEGI
2010285N13145 2010101718 155.0 MEGI
2012 Sanba 155.0
2013 Haiyan 170.0
Last edited by euro6208 on Sat May 31, 2014 3:36 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#222 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Fri May 30, 2014 7:02 pm

Usually, when an MJO arrives, it brings us lots of typhoons and impressive storms, but the MJO will arrive by June or July. It's still quite early now, but we will typically see this again this year, and the lingering El Niño could contribute to favorable development and an increased number of tropical disturbances. There could be long-lasting, and powerful typhoons, which may contribute >40 ACE. This is season could be very fun to track later on, with multiple typhoons happening the same time. Just wait...
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#223 Postby Steve820 » Fri May 30, 2014 7:05 pm

:uarrow: Yeah, it's very possible we could see another 155 knot beast this year, especially with the strengthening El Nino. Let's just keep our hopes up, hopefully the new member to the 155 knot club this year will stay out to sea and not be an extreme catastrophe like Haiyan was! :D
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Hurricanes are an amazing natural phenomena. While many are spiraling pits of evil that kill people or cause devastation, some are tame and stay clear of land.

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Re:

#224 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Fri May 30, 2014 7:43 pm

Steve820 wrote::uarrow: Yeah, it's very possible we could see another 155 knot beast this year, especially with the strengthening El Nino. Let's just keep our hopes up, hopefully the new member to the 155 knot club this year will stay out to sea and not be an extreme catastrophe like Haiyan was! :D

Our city had strong tropical storm to typhoon force winds. We had no power for 25 hours. This is nothing compared to those directly impacted by the eye and the eyewall. Winds in those directly impacted were above 140 knots, but the eastern portions had over 155 knots.

The location of the Western Pacific high or subtropical ridge typically shifts towards SE Asia and causing drought in the region, but that region is occasionally hit by typhoons, due to a weakening of the ridge. Because of that, most of the storms will form near the equator then eventually tracking poleward. Now, this year, Japan, Korea, Taiwan, north amd eastern Philipines and eastern and south China.

There would he more intense storms this year, in both the EPac and WPac, due to the favorable conditions and increase of disturbances brought by the lingering El Niño. Most traditional El Niños bring very active seasons (1997).
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#225 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sat May 31, 2014 9:47 pm

We have to wait a few more weeks for some development. If development occurs, it could really get exciting to track, especially those new to the WPac forums. Times like this temporary silence could sometimes get boring for storm trackers. For 3 or more weeks, we have not seen or tracked a single invest in the WPac.
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Re: 2014 WPAC Season

#226 Postby mrbagyo » Sun Jun 01, 2014 1:36 am

current sea surface temperature with infrared
Image
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euro6208

Re: 2014 WPAC Season

#227 Postby euro6208 » Sun Jun 01, 2014 11:23 pm

The ocean may be super favorable but wind shear has dominated our basin the last few weeks with only a few pockets of 5-10 knots confined to a small area and preventing development.


Image

Image
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euro6208

Re: 2014 WPAC Season

#228 Postby euro6208 » Sun Jun 01, 2014 11:29 pm

Image

Lots of moisture
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euro6208

Re: 2014 WPAC Season

#229 Postby euro6208 » Mon Jun 02, 2014 12:46 am

Below Average

Image

Below Average

Image

Near Normal

Image

Image

Below Average (Favorable)

Image

Below Average (Favorable)

Image

Above Average (Unfavorable)

Image
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euro6208

Re: 2014 WPAC Season

#230 Postby euro6208 » Mon Jun 02, 2014 6:39 am

Image

Image

Image

Image

Image

Mighty Impressive...
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Re: 2014 WPAC Season

#231 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 02, 2014 7:27 pm

Finnally after a few weeks without a TC or a invest there is one.

Invest 91W is up
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#232 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Tue Jun 03, 2014 10:55 pm

Invest 91W ended up in a bust. Lack of instability and high pressures caused this problem.
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Re: 2014 WPAC Season

#233 Postby euro6208 » Wed Jun 04, 2014 8:22 am

Models showing nothing this month, could we go 2 months without any tropical cyclone formation? :double:

Image

Last formation is last week of April which later developed into Typhoon Tapah.
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Re: 2014 WPAC Season

#234 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Wed Jun 04, 2014 8:36 pm

euro6208 wrote:Models showing nothing this month, could we go 2 months without any tropical cyclone formation? :double:

Image

Last formation is last week of April which later developed into Typhoon Tapah.

Nope, not just yet. Our first 2 weeks may be quiet, but because of an upcoming MJO, we could see a load of typhoons and hurricanes over the EPac later this month.
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Re: 2014 WPAC Season

#235 Postby euro6208 » Thu Jun 05, 2014 12:35 am

Image

There is a weak signal for tropical cyclone formation over the South China Sea, near the northern Philippines during Week-2.
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#236 Postby Meow » Thu Jun 05, 2014 11:52 pm

I saw GFS’s forecasting on a forum, and it shows there will be four cyclones forming in the northern South China Sea and all moving northeastward next week. :eek:
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Re:

#237 Postby euro6208 » Fri Jun 06, 2014 8:42 am

Meow wrote:I saw GFS’s forecasting on a forum, and it shows there will be four cyclones forming in the northern South China Sea and all moving northeastward next week. :eek:


Yeah likely due to a monsoon trough that will develop over Indian Ocean and slowly propogate towards the West Pacific due to the upcoming Kelvin wave and MJO.

El Nino induced Monsoon trough later on this season will play a significant role in the formation of Tropical Cyclones with more eastward development near the Dateline threatening the Pacific Islands...
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#238 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Fri Jun 06, 2014 8:38 pm

IMO, we could possibly see some typhoons and maybe even a super typhoon by this month brought by the help of the MJO and the El Niño.
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Re: 2014 WPAC Season

#239 Postby euro6208 » Sat Jun 07, 2014 5:05 am

Oh! Like many Islanders besides me, I am dying here hoping for rain. It is extremely hot like hell and everything you touch, it feels like a magma especially when using my car. The air alone is just half the story :roll:

I just want a typhoon to come over and lash us bringing an end to this.
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Re: 2014 WPAC Season

#240 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sat Jun 07, 2014 7:28 am

euro6208 wrote:Oh! Like many Islanders besides me, I am dying here hoping for rain. It is extremely hot like hell and everything you touch, it feels like a magma especially when using my car. The air alone is just half the story :roll:

I just want a typhoon to come over and lash us bringing an end to this.

It is so hot here too, but almost every day, we get a crazy thunderstorm and rain. Be careful for what you wish for! Even an invest, when it passes thrpugh your place, it could bring lots of rain and wind. This year has well very above-average SSTs and could fuel many storms, and thus the storms may pass near your area this year, as a symptom of this year's oceanic pattern.
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