Texas Summer - 2014

[dhweather]

June 4 00Z Euro - 240 hour run total precip - for entertainment purposes only, because if this happened, many of us would be entertained.



Significant differences with June 4 12Z run. Aren't models fun!

[South Texas Storms]

That's actually the 0z June 4 run of the Euro. The 12z run is currently updating.

[dhweather]

:uarrow:
That's actually the 0z June 4 run of the Euro. The 12z run is currently updating.

You are correct, sir. The first 6 frames were 12Z, the rest 0Z. I'll update when its finished.

[weatherdude1108]

June 4 00Z Euro - 240 hour run total precip - for entertainment purposes only, because if this happened, many of us would be entertained.



Significant differences with June 4 12Z run. Aren't models fun!

I was wondering why not much was being posted in the Spring thread. Porta gave me a heads up. No wonder! Ok, back to Summer. No matter what the run is, I like the potential widespread 1-inch rain, with that bullseye of 2-3 inches upstream of the Highland Lakes. Grain of salt, but just having fun with models.

[aggiecutter]

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 55m
Euro big rains in Texas and now has gulf system but not heading for s Fla.. more likely path up through central gulf.

[Portastorm]

Hope the Euro verifies. I noticed the 12z WPC precip map backed off on 5-7 day precip totals from the 0z map which Ntxw posted.

[aggiecutter]

Hope the Euro verifies. I noticed the 12z WPC precip map backed off on 5-7 day precip totals from the 0z map which Ntxw posted.

Still looks like quite a bit of rain for most of the state, with the exception one little area in south-central Texas:

[weatherdude1108]

Hope the Euro verifies. I noticed the 12z WPC precip map backed off on 5-7 day precip totals from the 0z map which Ntxw posted.

Still looks like quite a bit of rain for most of the state, with the exception one little area in south-central Texas:

Looks like Wichita Falls may be in the heavier precipitation area. They are in Stage 5 water restrictions and need it worse than anyone in the state.

[Ralph's Weather]

Looking at the two Euro maps it appears to show more rain for Texas if we do not get a Gulf system.

[Ntxw]

Looking at the two Euro maps it appears to show more rain for Texas if we do not get a Gulf system.

Good observation! Gulf systems especially when they head due north into ngom or egom usually puts Texas under subsidence (think Lee 2011). Unless they track west towards the state its usually not beneficial to us. Epac and wgom development is preferred.

[TheProfessor]

IT looks like a lot of the models have the tropical system going into México or due north. If it were to head toward Louisiana possibly near the Texas border, would it help are rain chances, or would it need to be further west?

[Ntxw]

:uarrow: IT looks like a lot of the models have the tropical system going into México or due north. If it were to head toward Louisiana possibly near the Texas border, would it help are rain chances, or would it need to be further west?

The system is part of a large monsoonal gyre, thus very unlikely to ever become strong and the further north it goes it runs into high shear. I don't know its direct effects on us, not as clear cut as say an epac system that feeds the stj. It could at least raise pwats into the state if it heads for TX/LA but thats a loong way as these large gyres often do not create a true system quickly if at all.

[TheProfessor]

Wxman57, I hope your post in the 90L thread is correct, because if the storm goes to Florida, then all it's gong to do is make it fill like August here.

[JDawg512]

I don't know how much influence it would be as far as subsidence if it went to Florida. If it's weak, I doubt it would do much at all for us one way or the other. If it moves towards Louisiana, then I would be concerned about drying effects.

This May was the best in several years. My own rainfall monthly total came to 7.42 inches. The real treat was where the rain fell with some great totals over northwest, west and west central Texas. A massive amount of water flowed into the upper Colorado River basin which has been bone dry for so long. Not only has it helped the upper portion but both Lakes Buchanan and Travis have had up to 5 feet of rise.

Now if we can get at least average June rainfall and in the areas that need it most, I'll be happy. Hoping for the best scenario with this upcoming event so we can keep average temps.

[Ntxw]

Not all have been spared true summer. In far west Texas El Paso hit 107 (Record) today and will be between 103-106 tomorrow! The horrors...

[weatherdude1108]

Not all have been spared true summer. In far west Texas El Paso hit 107 (Record) today and will be between 103-106 tomorrow! The horrors...

Yikes! That is close to what we were experiencing three years ago (2011) at this time. What a nightmare!

I was in El Paso a couple weeks ago. Highs were only in the 80s, with 8% humidity at 10pm! That place is too dry for my blood.

[dhweather]

Well, things sure changed in a couple of days. June 6 00Z Euro run total precip.

[TheProfessor]

Yes, thats not looking nearly as good as it did before. I was looking at the 0Z GFS and it showed what looked like a backward moving low at the very end of the run. Can any body confirm?

[hriverajr]

Yes it shows the trough that comes through early next week.. possibly closing off and beginning to retrograde back to the west if memory serves correct. Very bad situation here in southwest texas as far as rainfall. We just have not gotten enough.

[aggiecutter]

WPC says significant rain event a long and north of the I-20 corridor in Texas:



12z GFS pretty much agrees: