WPAC: MITAG - Tropical Storm

[Meow]

OK, this is finally an invest.

[Meow]

ASCAT found 30-knot winds on the east and south sides of 94W. Let’s see what JMA will do next.

[euro6208]

Not much change in organization.

LOW chance

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 21.5N 121.5E,
APPROXIMATELY 210 NM SOUTH OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AND POORLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) LOCATED ALONG A BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY WITH
CONVECTION ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. A 091910Z SSMI 37GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF TAIWAN WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF MULTIPLE CIRCULATIONS LOCATED
ALONG THE BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY AS SUGGESTED BY A 091333Z ASCAT PASS.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT AS THE LLCC IS
LOCATED NORTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS WITH FAIR OUTFLOW AND LOW TO
MODERATE (10 TO 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGEST THIS SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY ACCELERATE TO THE
NORTHEAST AND TRANSITION INTO A FULLY BAROCLINIC SYSTEM AS IT
BECOMES EMBEDDED INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

[Meow]

And it is now medium!



THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 21.5N
121.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 122.3E, APPROXIMATELY 185 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF ISHIGAKIJIMA, JAPAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED, EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH ISOLATED BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED EAST
AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC. A 092344Z SSMIS IMAGE INDICATES
FORMATIVE, WEAK BANDING DISPLACED OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF
THE SYSTEM. A 100104Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS A SYMMETRIC CIRCULATION WITH
15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS AND STRONGER FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE
SYSTEM, ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDING.
MSI AND ASCAT IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE LLCC IS LOCATED WELL SOUTH
OF A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE, WHICH EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN TAIWAN SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
THAT THE LLCC IS LOCATED JUST POLEWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS
IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER-LEVEL WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW. DUE TO THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM, THE DYNAMIC MODELS ARE
NOT INITIALIZING THE CIRCULATION ACCURATELY. HOWEVER, THE MODEL
FIELDS INDICATE A TWO TO THREE DAY PERIOD OF POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT
BEFORE THE SYSTEM BECOMES ABSORBED IN THE BAIYU BOUNDARY SOUTH OF
KYUSHU. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB.
BASED ON THE STRENGTH AND SYMMETRY OF THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

[euro6208]

Not surprised it isn't upgraded yet. system is becoming elongated from the northeast to southwest and exposed LLC...

Nada from PGTW and KNES....

[xtyphooncyclonex]

94W is now upgraded to Tropical Depression Ester in the Philippines

SEVERE WEATHER BULLLETIN NUMBER ONE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING: TROPICAL DEPRESSION "ESTER"
ISSUED AT 11:00 AM, 10 JUNE 2014


The Low Pressure Area near Basco, Batanes has developed into a Tropical Depression and was named "ESTER".

Location of Center:
(as of 10:00 a.m.) 120 km North of Basco, Batanes
Coordinates: 21.6°N, 121.7°E
Strength: Maximum winds of 55 kph near the center
Movement: Forecast to move Northeast at 20 kph.

Forecast Positions/Outlook:
Wednesday morning:
540 km Northeast of Basco, Batanes
Thursday morning:
1000 km Northeast of Basco, Batanes
or outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)

Areas Having Public Storm Warning Signals

Signal No. 1
(30-60 kph winds may be expected in at least 36 hours)
-Batanes Group of Islands
-Calayan Group of Islands
-Babuyan Group of Islands

Estimated rainfall amount is from 5 – 15 mm/hr within the 250 km diameter of the depression.

Residents living in low lying and mountainous areas under PSWS #1 are alerted against possible flashfloods and landslides.

"ESTER" will enhance the Southwest Monsoon which will bring moderate to heavy rains over Ilocos Region and over the provinces of Zambales and Bataan.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 PM today.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

The CMA, JMA & PAGASA all have upgraded the tropical disturbance, and the JTWC has upgraded the chance of further intensification and development to become a TC, from LOW several hours ago to MEDIUM already. Vertical Wind shear over the area that "Ester" will track is currently rapidly decreasing thus SSTs are warm enough (above 26ºC) for tropical development. Steering is good. The banding is quite impressive.

[Alyono]

Not convinced this is a TD. Looks frontal to me

Now, I fully expect a TS to form later this week in the E South China Sea and move toward Taiwan

[euro6208]

Not convinced this is a TD. Looks frontal to me

Now, I fully expect a TS to form later this week in the E South China Sea and move toward Taiwan

Yeah it does look frontal but anyways...

it is now 1.0!

20140610 0832 22.3 -123.0 T1.0/1.0 94W 94W


TXPQ24 KNES 100912
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (94W)

B. 10/0832Z

C. 22.3N

D. 123.0E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/SSMI

H. REMARKS...WELL DEFINED SYMMETRIC LOW LEVEL CENTER HAS TYPICAL
LOOK OF SHEARED TROPICAL SYSTEM AND IS LESS THAN .7 DEGREES FROM A
SMALL CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THE SE PORTIONS OF AN OUTER BAND.
SHEAR METHOD CONVECTION IS TOO SMALL TO YIELD DT GREATER THAN 2.5.
SHEAR MATRIX SUPPORTS DT OF 1.5. MET IS 1.0 AND PT IS 1.0 AS WELL. FT
IS 1.0 BASED ON MET AND INITIAL CLASSIFICATION.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

10/0624Z 22.2N 122.7E SSMI


...GALLINA

[euro6208]

94W INVEST 140610 1200 22.3N 123.5E WPAC 20 1001

20 knots
1001 mb

[Meow]

JMA already issued a warning at 06Z.



WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 996 HPA
AT 22.0N 122.6E BASHI CHANNEL MOVING EAST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS.

[euro6208]

I estimate maybe 6-12 hours left for this to intensify into a tropical cyclone before becoming a fully baroclinic system as stated in the discussion...This area has tons of energy...

[Hurricane_Luis]

JTWC: Invest 94W/JMA: Tropical Depression/PAGASA: Tropical Depression Ester

[HURAKAN]

visible satellite images show a well-defined center ... gale-force winds likely in the eastern quadrant

[euro6208]

94W INVEST 140610 1800 23.2N 124.5E WPAC 20 998

Winds remains the same but pressure goes down to 998!

[euro6208]

Latest:

20140610 2032 23.1 -125.0 T1.5/1.5 94W 94W
20140610 1432 22.7 -123.8 T1.5/1.5 94W 94W
20140610 0832 22.3 -123.0 T1.0/1.0 94W 94W
20140610 0232 21.6 -121.9 Too Weak 94W 94W

TXPQ24 KNES 102159
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (94W)

B. 10/2032Z

C. 23.1N

D. 125.0E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/SSMI/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IN RECENT MICROWAVE
IMAGERY AND ON EDGE OF HIGHER CLOUD IN SWIR IMAGERY. CIRCULATION IS
CIRCULAR WITH TIGHTLY DEFINED CLOUD LINES. CENTER IS LESS THAN 1.25
DEGREES FROM COLD OVERCAST WHICH IS GREATER THAN 1.5 DEGREES. THIS GIVES
DT=2.0 USING SHEAR MATRIX. MET=1.5 BASED ON 24 HOUR NORMAL DEVELOPMENT
TREND. PT=1.5. FT IS BASED ON MET.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

10/1854Z 23.3N 124.9E SSMI
10/2010Z 23.0N 125.1E SSMIS


...RUMINSKI





Development chances decreasing but cyclone genesis remains very high in the South China Sea...

[euro6208]

0Z update in. No major changes. Still a powerful front...

94W INVEST 140611 0000 23.6N 125.9E WPAC 20 998

[Steve820]

Looks like Ester will have to be a weakling this year. The northern Philippines and Taiwan could still get some rain though, but this, of course, shouldn't be anything bad at all.

[richard-K2013]

TXPQ24 KNES 110344
TCSWNP

A. SUBTROPICAL DISTURBANCE (94W)

B. 11/0232Z

C. 23.5N

D. 126.6E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. SUBTROPICAL

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...THE SYSTEM HAS MERGED WITH A FRONT AND IS NO LONGER
EXHIBITING TROPICAL FEATURES. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPES DOWN FROM THE
NE. THIS WILL BE THE FINAL BULLETIN UNLESS THE SYSTEM TAKES ON TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS AGAIN.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL

...MCCARTHY

On the other hand, there is almost storm-force wind SE of the center. 40 ~ 45 kts

[Meow]

On the other hand, there is almost storm-force wind SE of the center. 40 ~ 45 kts

JMA should name this system at 06Z, or they will miss a TS.