#7 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Mon Jun 09, 2014 10:11 pm
Forecast to become a category 1
WTIO31 PGTW 100300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (TWO) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/091321Z JUN 14//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (TWO) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z --- NEAR 15.1N 68.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.1N 68.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 15.9N 68.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 16.5N 67.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 16.9N 66.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 17.3N 65.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 17.9N 63.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 18.3N 61.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 18.6N 59.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
100300Z POSITION NEAR 15.3N 68.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02A (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 325 NM
SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN INCREASINGLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
WITH FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION AND BROKEN CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. A 092236Z SSMI 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
INDICATES INCREASED CONSOLIDATION IN THE LOW LEVELS AS THE SYSTEM
HAS BECOME MORE TIGHTLY WRAPPED WHILE THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF
SYSTEM HAS REMAINED MARGINAL OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED UPON THE AFOREMENTIONED SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH
FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS
BASED UPON THE TIGHTLY WRAPPED STRUCTURE SEEN IN THE IMAGERY AS
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW REMAIN AT 30 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM IS SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
AXIS WITH MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) LEVELS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. TC 02A IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
NORTH TO NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE MID TO DEEP-LAYER REFLECTION OF A
NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED STR STEERING RIDGE LOCATED OVER INDIA. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TO TURN WESTWARD IN THE NEXT DAY AS
ANOTHER STR BUILDS NORTH OF THE SYSTEM AND BECOMES THE DOMINANT
STEERING INFLUENCE. GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH TAU
72, REACHING 70 KNOTS, AS EXTREMELY CONDUCIVE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND GOOD OUTFLOW CONTINUE. INCREASING VWS AFTER TAU 72,
WILL START A SLOW WEAKENING PROCESS AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH
OMAN. LIMITED NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE
WESTWARD TRACK WITH SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN TRANSLATIONAL TRACK
SPEED. BASED ON THIS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 100900Z, 101500Z, 102100Z AND 110300Z. THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR
HI/091321Z JUN 14 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTIO21 PGTW
091330Z).//
NNNN
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