Global model runs discussion

[asd123]

GFS showing a tropical system (don't know what strength) http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... eus_41.png

Seems like a phantom storm, but there's something I don't quite understand. The GFS has been consistently showing storms in the long range, with every day the storm appearing around the 250 hour mark. The closest a storm got in the forecast was within the 192 hour zone, but then the storm was cancelled.

Doesn't a phantom storm mean extreme solutions in the long range once in a while, and not consistently. What is going on with the GFS showing these solutions in the long range, pretty much day after day?

[cycloneye]

Is curious that the always making cyclones GEM/CMC doesn't have anything.

[USTropics]

GFS showing a tropical system (don't know what strength) http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... eus_41.png

Seems like a phantom storm, but there's something I don't quite understand. The GFS has been consistently showing storms in the long range, with every day the storm appearing around the 250 hour mark. The closest a storm got in the forecast was within the 192 hour zone, but then the storm was cancelled.

Doesn't a phantom storm mean extreme solutions in the long range once in a while, and not consistently. What is going on with the GFS showing these solutions in the long range, pretty much day after day?

We've started a separate thread regarding the GFS early season performance issues.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=116384&st=0&sk=t&sd=a

From Jeff Master's blog about a week ago:

According to WSI's tropical weather expert Michael Ventrice, who has guest blogged on El Niño in my blog, the GFS likely has insufficient resolution to handle a large tropical low pressure system forecast to set up over Central American late this week. These large low pressure systems often have "spokes" of extra spin that rotate around the main low, and these "spokes" are often erroneously developed into tropical depressions by the GFS model.

Alyono also gave this explanation:

was hearing at the office that its having issues every time a trough drops across the US.

[boca]

I give the GFS credit they are persistently showing the same scenario run after run

[TheStormExpert]

I give the GFS credit they are persistently showing the same scenario run after run

It's persistently shown several different scenarios for several runs in a row for the past 3 weeks! At this point I'd say it's on crack.

The 00z run now shows a Moderate TS impacting S. FL before sliding along the East Coast as a Strong TS/Weak Cat.1 Hurriane in the long range! This solution seems very unlikely even if we believed the model more about these phantom storms it's been showing.

Anyone want to guess when and where the next GFS Phantom Storm will go?

[Hurricaneman]

The only thing thats telling me the GFS storm could happen is the fact that there is an interesting area north of Panama and it does seem that this is the area progged by the GFS to percolate for a while. but if I were a betting person I would bet on Epac development over the NW Caribbean

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Alyono]

after the 12Z run, I hereby request that we are banned for the remainder of the season from posting GFS runs on this forum, lol

[floridasun78]

after the 12Z run, I hereby request that we are banned for the remainder of the season from posting GFS runs on this forum, lol

what do gfs 12z show?

[Dean4Storms]

after the 12Z run, I hereby request that we are banned for the remainder of the season from posting GFS runs on this forum, lol

At least beyond 4-5 days, it is lost.

[Dean4Storms]

after the 12Z run, I hereby request that we are banned for the remainder of the season from posting GFS runs on this forum, lol

what do gfs 12z show?

Shows a TS/hurricane eventually coming up thru the Yucatan Straights northward to just of the SE Coast of LA turning west and then landfall south of Houston along mid TX Coast.

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-natlsfc.php?run=2014060912&time=INSTANT&var=PRMSL&hour=360

[tolakram]

I bet is has the general track correct (north drift, west bend), but this will most likely be in the EPAC. I've never seen the GFS not only make a genesis mistake in the wrong basin but then deepening it and staying with the storm all the way to a landfall. It's almost as if the map locations are off.

Development starts around hour 192, just before the switch to long range / lower resolution.

[OuterBanker]

after the 12Z run, I hereby request that we are banned for the remainder of the season from posting GFS runs on this forum, lol

LOL, been on vacation for over a week (first time ever during the season for us, it was great). Went to the mountains of Pa, (where else do seashore folks go) no internet, tv etc. Yet when I get back the GFS has about the same scenario it did couple weeks ago with an east coast runner. It's almost as if JB has his hand in it, yet he doesn't even mention it. Looks like we may have a new crazy cousin. Really crazy when the CMC is considered conservative. Great entertainment though.

Sure am glad the government spent all that money improving the GFS past couple years.

[NDG]

I am sure the GFS will continue with its solution for development in the NW Caribbean until it actually happens, even if it is 2 months from

[crownweather]

I am sure the GFS will continue with its solution for development in the NW Caribbean until it actually happens, even if it is 2 months from

lol. I was thinking the same thing today. Eventually, it'll be right with the northwest Caribbean tropical development.

[USTropics]

When they upgraded the GFS, they failed to mention the name changed to Good For Spuricanes.

I can't remember it being this inconsistent in years past. Mike Fiorino (Ph.D in meteorology, retired Navy Commander), published a break down per model/basin in this slideshow for tropical genesis (March 5th, 2014). Below is the link (slide 11 details the Atlantic):

http://www.ofcm.gov/ihc14/presentations ... 140305.pdf

[Hurricaneman]

I am sure the GFS will continue with its solution for development in the NW Caribbean until it actually happens, even if it is 2 months from

The GFS may not be completely out to lunch now, it seems to be latching on the wave in the Eastern Atlantic SSW of the cape verde islands currently and if this starts to move closer in range like 120hrs in the next day or 2 then there may be a feature worth watching. At least it doesn't seem to be latching on to nothing like it has the last few days

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[beoumont]

From the NWS scientific discussion from MLB office t his morning:

Most significant model discrepancies occur very late in the period with the GFS developing a Caribbean low south of the Yucatan around days 7-8 with the ECM developing a
closed low off the Carolinas during the same period. Considering the GFS has been
trying to develop this closed low practically since the beginning of
hurricane season the ECM seems like the better bet.

Considering the GFS almost every early-mid June persistently tries to develop TCs in the NW Carib. (climatology based bias??) I would guess along the same lines as the above at this point in time; with a possible surface low north of the Bahamas.

[Alyono]

From the NWS scientific discussion from MLB office t his morning:

Most significant model discrepancies occur very late in the period with the GFS developing a Caribbean low south of the Yucatan around days 7-8 with the ECM developing a
closed low off the Carolinas during the same period. Considering the GFS has been
trying to develop this closed low practically since the beginning of
hurricane season the ECM seems like the better bet.

Considering the GFS almost every early-mid June persistently tries to develop TCs in the NW Carib. (climatology based bias??) I would guess along the same lines as the above at this point in time; with a possible surface low north of the Bahamas.

The GFS solution is solely based upon the equations of motion

probably something is off in its numerical scheme

[stauglocal]

Sorry to be a little off topic, but I'm new at this and was wondering what website(s) do you get the global models from?
Thank you!

[OuterBanker]

Here is one of my favorite spots. Somewhat of a learning curve, but should understand after a few clicks.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewall.html

I sure could use a good link for the Euro.