EPAC: CRISTINA - Post-Tropical

[SouthDadeFish]

Starting to develop an eye?

(posted by Ryan Maue on Twitter):

Let's see if current satellite trends continue.

I do not understand how a T 2.5 was given at 18Z with that presentation. A very beautiful storm nonetheless.

[Yellow Evan]

Eh, on a second thought, I agree it's 50 knts.

[Yellow Evan]

Starting to develop an eye?

(posted by Ryan Maue on Twitter):

Let's see if current satellite trends continue.

I do not understand how a T 2.5 was given at 18Z with that presentation. A very beautiful storm nonetheless.

Maybe since it was/is a little elongated?

[supercane4867]

Looks like a banding eye type feature for now

[Yellow Evan]

Still suppose to be strong per 12z GFS.

[hurricanes1234]

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 102038
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014
200 PM PDT TUE JUN 10 2014

...CRISTINA STRENGTHENS SOME MORE AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 103.2W
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM SW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.2 WEST. CRISTINA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. A CONTINUED WESTERLY
MOTION WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO....FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE...AND CRISTINA
COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY CRISTINA ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THROUGH TODAY...AND COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014
200 PM PDT TUE JUN 10 2014

Although inner-core thunderstorm activity has increased at times
since the previous advisory, it has been unable to persist as a
central dense overcast feature due to entrainment of dry mid-level
air. The result is that Cristina looks much better in visible
imagery than it does in IR data, and this is mainly due to the cloud
pattern being comprised of mostly dissipating cirrus clouds. Having
said that, microwave and conventional satellite imagery have been
hinting at the formation of a 30 nmi diameter eye-like feature
during the past several hours, but the cyclone has thus far been
unable to sustain that development trend owing to the aforementioned
dry air intrusions. The advisory intensity of 45 kt is based on a
blend of satellite intensity estimates of T3.0/45 kt from both TAFB
and UW-CIMSS ADT.

The initial motion estimate remains 270/04 kt. Cristina is expected
to continue moving generally westward and accompanied by a gradual
increase in forward speed as the cyclone comes under increasing
influence from a strengthening subtropical ridge that extends
westward from northern Mexico to west of Baja California. By 48
hours, Cristina is forecast to turn west-northwestward around the
southwestern periphery of the ridge, and that motion is expected to
continue through Day 5. The NHC track forecast is just an update of
the previous advisory track, and lies south and west of the
consensus model TVCE due to the GFDL model having a sharp
right-of-track bias from the outset of the forecast.

Upper-level shear is forecast to decrease to less than 5 kt during
the next 72 hours while Cristina remains over SSTs warmer than 28C.
This should allow the cyclone to at least gradually strengthen for
the next 24 hours or so despite the occasional dry air intrusions
that will disrupt the inner core convection and the intensification
process. However, if Cristina can somehow manage to close off an
eye despite the relatively dry mid-level environment, then rapid
strengthening during the next 24 hours or so would likely occur in
such a low vertical wind shear regime. By 96 hours and beyond, the
combination of much cooler sea-surface temperatures, drier and more
stable air, and increasing southwesterly wind shear should produce
gradual to possible rapid weakening. The NHC intensity forecast is
similar to the previous advisory and follows the consensus intensity
models IVCN and ICON.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/2100Z 15.5N 103.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 11/0600Z 15.6N 104.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 11/1800Z 15.8N 105.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 12/0600Z 16.1N 107.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 12/1800Z 16.7N 108.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 13/1800Z 18.1N 111.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 14/1800Z 19.2N 113.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 15/1800Z 20.0N 115.5W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[Yellow Evan]

Hmm, they went with 45 knt. At first, I thought it was unreasonable, but now it makes sense to me. I'd still think 50 knts is a better estimate though.

[hurricanes1234]

Once the dry air issue is resolved, rapid intensification is likely, according to the discussion. However, I only anticipate gradual intensification, since I do believe that dry air will plague rapid intensification throughout the storm's lifetime, but not enough to make it weaken just yet.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Yellow Evan]

Once the dry air issue is resolved, rapid intensification is likely, according to the discussion. However, I only anticipate gradual intensification, since I do believe that dry air will plague rapid intensification throughout the storm's lifetime, but not enough to make it weaken just yet.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

If shear decrease slightly, then dry air can't get into the system.

[Kingarabian]

They're ignoring satellite presentation and going in favor of the microwave depictions.

[Yellow Evan]

Not the best.

[supercane4867]

They're ignoring satellite presentation and going in favor of the microwave depictions.

Visible presentation sometimes can be deceiving while microwave depicts the true structure of a system, not impressive on IR imagery either.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

It doesn't really look bad on infrared. I agree with 50kt as an initial intensity. Good chance for rapid intensification tomorrow once the storm pulls away from Mexico.

[hurricanes1234]

Looks like it's wrapping up now and the convection is increasing around the center. I'd agree with the chance that it could be 50-55 knots tonight. It already has dark yellows and reds surrounding the "eye feature".

[Yellow Evan]

Looks like it's wrapping up now and the convection is increasing around the center. I'd agree with the chance that it could be 50-55 knots tonight. It already has dark yellows and reds surrounding the "eye feature".

It's not organized enough on IR for me to support 55 knts.

[Kingarabian]

Looks like it's wrapping up now and the convection is increasing around the center. I'd agree with the chance that it could be 50-55 knots tonight. It already has dark yellows and reds surrounding the "eye feature".

It's not organized enough on IR for me to support 55 knts.

55kts may not be too far off.

[Ntxw]

In motion

[supercane4867]

TXPZ23 KNES 110013
TCSENP

A. 03E (CRISTINA)

B. 10/2345Z

C. 15.3N

D. 103.5W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/SSMI

H. REMARKS...CRISTINA HAS BEEN SHOWING SIGNS OF EYE FORMATION PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. CLOUD FILLED EYE FEATURE APPARENT IN GOES VIS/IR AND
MICROWAVE IMAGERY. COLD TOPPED DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN PULSING MORE
THAN MAINTAINING INTENSITY. SYSTEM IS ESSENTIALLY DEFINED BY CORE
CENTRAL FEATURE WHICH IS NEARLY CIRCULAR AND GIVES 10 TENTHS BANDING FOR
DT=3.5. MET=3.5 BASED ON 24 HOUR RAPID DEVELOPMENT TREND. PT=3.5. FT IS
BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

10/2138Z 15.4N 103.1W SSMI

[Kingarabian]

TAFB/SAB/ADT all have 3.5.