2014 EPAC Season

[hurricanes1234]

Thanks. An interesting point to note not related to Cristina, there's a lonesome area of strong convection to the southwest and I thought it would be worth discussing here.

[Yellow Evan]

Thanks. An interesting point to note not related to Cristina, there's a lonesome area of strong convection to the southwest and I thought it would be worth discussing here.

Models don't develop this.

[Yellow Evan]

CMC shows this. I notice how all the CFS storm get dropped once they're carried over to the GFS.

[Steve820]

This season's getting very impressive activity so far! With Cristina and another area of convection that could possibly develop (even though there's not much model support), and also the El Nino, we could be in for a wild year here.

[Yellow Evan]

This season's getting very impressive activity so far! With Cristina and another area of convection that could possibly develop (even though there's not much model support), and also the El Nino, we could be in for a wild year here.

Why will the other area develop?

[Yellow Evan]

Shear expected to decrease to less than 10 knts across the basin within a week.

[cycloneye]

2014 season continues to rack up ACE units and is June 11. ACE units as of 21:00z advisory of Hurricane Cristina at 70kts is 21.26.

[Ntxw]

Cristina looks good, Amanda has good company. EPAC rolling with the goods. No phantoms here!

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

The MJO, while strong, is holding stationary in the Indian Ocean and West Pacific right now, and most models forecast it to move very little through the end of the month (dubious?). It should eventually eject into the West Hemisphere sometime in early to mid-July. Once that happens, the Pacific hurricane season will *really* get underway. I wouldn't be surprised in the least to see over 1 Category 5 hurricane by the time the season is through, especially once the atmosphere responds to the developing El Nino.

I'm expecting somewhere between 22-24 named storms, 10-12 hurricanes, and 4-6 major hurricanes by the time the season is through.

[Yellow Evan]

Cristina looks good, Amanda has good company. EPAC rolling with the goods. No phantoms here!

Pretty remarkable given how 1st year warm ENSO events sometimes have slow starts.

[Ntxw]

I'm expecting somewhere between 22-24 named storms, 10-12 hurricanes, and 4-6 major hurricanes by the time the season is through.

I definitely agree with these numbers. The EPAC has developed something with each passage of Kelvin waves too, without MJO at times. This most recent KW has dragged it's feet over this basin helping Cristina. I wonder if this will be a persistent theme here the rest of the way?

[Yellow Evan]

I'm expecting somewhere between 22-24 named storms, 10-12 hurricanes, and 4-6 major hurricanes by the time the season is through.

I definitely agree with these numbers. The EPAC has developed something with each passage of Kelvin waves too, without MJO at times. This most recent KW has dragged it's feet over this basin helping Cristina. I wonder if this will be a persistent theme here the rest of the way?

I don't see why not with the El Nino ongoing.

[Yellow Evan]

CMC shows stuff after Cristina. GFS has been acting dumb (see ATL threads), but shows nothing.

[cycloneye]

One word to say about how the 2014 EPAC season has begun is impressive. ACE is going up rapidly and as of the 09:00z advisory of Hurricane Cristina as a major cane (105kts) is 22.8225 units. Then there is this:

Cristina is the earliest second major hurricane formation in the
eastern Pacific since reliable records began in 1971, eclipsing the
former record of Darby (2010) by 13 days.

[euro6208]

I am very surprised at this level of activity the epac is going through. I keep telling my self this is normal for an el nino This season will be very much interesting as all pacific basins erupts for this el nino...

Hoping for more interesting storms aka category 5's but no damages and casualties...

[cycloneye]

Cristina is making a run at Amandas peak of 150kts but I think it will be short of that but anyway is amazing how the conditions in the Eastern Pacific are this season.

[euro6208]

Cristina is making a run at Amandas peak of 150kts but I think it will be short of that but anyway is amazing how the conditions in the Eastern Pacific are this season.

150 knots or 135 knots?

[ninel conde]

The MJO, while strong, is holding stationary in the Indian Ocean and West Pacific right now, and most models forecast it to move very little through the end of the month (dubious?). It should eventually eject into the West Hemisphere sometime in early to mid-July. Once that happens, the Pacific hurricane season will *really* get underway. I wouldn't be surprised in the least to see over 1 Category 5 hurricane by the time the season is through, especially once the atmosphere responds to the developing El Nino.

I'm expecting somewhere between 22-24 named storms, 10-12 hurricanes, and 4-6 major hurricanes by the time the season is through.

way too low on majors. i expect 8-10 as everything will over perform.

[Yellow Evan]

I am very surprised at this level of activity the epac is going through. I keep telling my self this is normal for an el nino This season will be very much interesting as all pacific basins erupts for this el nino...

Hoping for more interesting storms aka category 5's but no damages and casualties...

Even for El Ninos, this is somewhat unusual, and unprecedented given the inactive phase we've been in since 1999.

[Yellow Evan]

The MJO, while strong, is holding stationary in the Indian Ocean and West Pacific right now, and most models forecast it to move very little through the end of the month (dubious?). It should eventually eject into the West Hemisphere sometime in early to mid-July. Once that happens, the Pacific hurricane season will *really* get underway. I wouldn't be surprised in the least to see over 1 Category 5 hurricane by the time the season is through, especially once the atmosphere responds to the developing El Nino.

I'm expecting somewhere between 22-24 named storms, 10-12 hurricanes, and 4-6 major hurricanes by the time the season is through.

way too low on majors. i expect 8-10 as everything will over perform.

The record all time is 10 in 1992. Problem is that there is too much warm water, and SSt's upwelling will result unless they are spaced out across the basin like 1992 as well.