Global model runs discussion

[Alyono]

Sorry to be a little off topic, but I'm new at this and was wondering what website(s) do you get the global models from?
Thank you!

no websites... the models I discuss come from direct feeds

one can get them on websites, however. Try http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs

[OuterBanker]

Also, don't forget to check out the Extras column on the Penn State site. Excellent source for high res vis and IR sat pics.

[OuterBanker]

Big diff in the models. Apparently the system mentioned on the Euro off the NC coast is one that comes off land (Va off NC coast) then heads out. GFS is still in love the Gulf system, now sliding west from the Fl panhandle and making landfall in se Tx. But no more east coast rider (wasn't really worried ).

[South Texas Storms]

Sorry to be a little off topic, but I'm new at this and was wondering what website(s) do you get the global models from?
Thank you!

Here's another good site to view global model data: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/

[tolakram]

Sorry to be a little off topic, but I'm new at this and was wondering what website(s) do you get the global models from?
Thank you!

I've always preferred this site. It can be a bit behind the others but the presentation is easy to use: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

[stauglocal]

Thanks guys, I really appreciate it.

[HURRICANELONNY]

At least they both agree on a low:

Models again diverge with regard to the track of an area of low pressure across the Yucatan Peninsula for the latter half of the week. The European model (ecmwf) still keeps this low far to the south while the GFS continues to hold firm on bringing this low into the Gulf of Mexico.

[Alyono]

Louis Uccellini, please fix your model

[blp]

During the slow times I look at the CFS to pick out patterns that may happen during the next two months. It has done a decent job the last few years in showing a general pattern. It picked up on the troughiness of recent years. I don't focus in on any area of development because obviously it is in the ultra long range but when phantom storms do develop it gives you an idea of the genral steering patterns.

Right now, it looks like until end of July the High will dominate the Atlantic with limited troughiness. No phantom storms show up either just some weak waves coming into the Eastern Carribean.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&CONT=noat&MODELL=cfs&MODELLTYP=1&VAR=pslv&WMO=&ZOOM=0&RES=0&PERIOD=&PANEL=0&ARCHIV=0&BASE=201406090000%26HH%3D312

[HurricaneTracker2031]

My analysis upon Computer Model Situation: http://goo.gl/H9nR3X


Latest GFS run develops the system at 186 hours. IMO, although it is possible. ATM, I think that this will not happen.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Alyono]

GFS develops it at 144 if one looks at 1mb isobars

[gatorcane]

The GFS is showing convection building in the SW Caribbean that spawns this low as early as 120 hours from now. Seeing how no other model is showing this and the fact GFS has been showing something forming there for weeks now, got to think it is not going to happen.

[NDG]

One thing that I have noticed that the GFS has been forecasting in its medium to long range is the building of an upper level ridge in the central to western Caribbean which has not materialized instead strong NW to westerly shear has remained all across the Caribbean for weeks now.

[Ntxw]

One thing that I have noticed that the GFS has been forecasting in its medium to long range is the building of an upper level ridge in the central to western Caribbean which has not materialized instead strong NW to westerly shear has remained all across the Caribbean for weeks now.

You are definitely right about the GFS trying to do that. You can see the shear (50kts or greater at times) blasting in the link below. Much more tame in the subtropical Atlantic.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... rjava.html

[TheStormExpert]

One thing that I have noticed that the GFS has been forecasting in its medium to long range is the building of an upper level ridge in the central to western Caribbean which has not materialized instead strong NW to westerly shear has remained all across the Caribbean for weeks now.

You are definitely right about the GFS trying to do that. You can see the shear (50kts or greater at times) blasting in the link below. Much more tame in the subtropical Atlantic.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... rjava.html

Must be a sign that the expected El Niño isn't far off. Those westerlies have been screaming across the MDR regions which explains why 90L was not able to develop.

[weatherwindow]

The GFS is showing convection building in the SW Caribbean that spawns this low as early as 120 hours from now. Seeing how no other model is showing this and the fact GFS has been showing something forming there for weeks now, got to think it is not going to happen.

Hello Chris....well, surprise...NAVGEM 12Z/11 has picked up on it at about the same time frame with genesis in the same area, Gulf of Honduras and tracking slowly NE to the Yucatan Channel at the end of the run(144hrs)....now of course the question of the validity of the Navy model for genesis ...well we cant have everything....
Grtz from KW, Rich
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _watl.html

[Hurricaneman]

The GFS is showing convection building in the SW Caribbean that spawns this low as early as 120 hours from now. Seeing how no other model is showing this and the fact GFS has been showing something forming there for weeks now, got to think it is not going to happen.

Hello Chris....well, surprise...NAVGEM 12Z/11 has picked up on it at about the same time frame with genesis in the same area, Gulf of Honduras and tracking slowly NE to the Yucatan Channel at the end of the run(144hrs)....now of course the question of the validity of the Navy model for genesis ...well we cant have everything....
Grtz from KW, Rich
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _watl.html

I would like to see more models join in before saying it could happen because the GFS has been lousy in the tropics since the upgrade or in this case downgrade IMO

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[asd123]

Board up the windows! Here we go with the GFS again. 987 mb storm (strength?) apparently is forecasted to make landfall twice in Florida. Here is a model pic: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... eus_41.png

[NDG]

Somebody please unplug the GFS
Not even the crazy GEM is showing development in the NW Caribbean.

[Dean4Storms]

GFS is off its rocker, would not pay much attention to it beyond 144 hrs as far as Tropical weather is concerned.