ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[euro6208]

CFSv2 is still persistent of Nino 1+2 cooling down below El Nino threshold by SON period. What you guys have to say about it, I have not seen anybody else bring this up again ever since I brought this up a few weeks ago.

TOTAL BUST!

Total Bust? It's not like the El Niño is going to be cancelled, in fact, the CFSv2 is expecting this to be a moderate-to-strong El Niño for the main Niño region 3.4 and please NOTE the difficulty of how to forecast a very complicated thing like this. Please also remember that this is only a prediction and a forecast, and it is not an absolute guarantee of what will actually happen. Please don't also overexaggerate. So far, CFSv2 is the only model I know that is forecasting a modoki-esque El Niño. A Modoki El Niño is a bust? Very meaningless. Don't also forget that one of the strongest in history was a Modoki type, the 1965-1966 event.

DO NOT FORGET THAT NIÑO 3.4 IS THE BASIS OF DETERMINING THE INTENSITY OF THE EL NIÑO AND NOT 1+2. AND THAT CFSv2 AND THE ECMWF ARE EXPECTING A MODERATE TO STRONG EVENT.

Yes I know...lol see my edited post...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

TOTAL BUST!

Total Bust? It's not like the El Niño is going to be cancelled, in fact, the CFSv2 is expecting this to be a moderate-to-strong El Niño for the main Niño region 3.4 and please NOTE the difficulty of how to forecast a very complicated thing like this. Please also remember that this is only a prediction and a forecast, and it is not an absolute guarantee of what will actually happen. Please don't also overexaggerate. So far, CFSv2 is the only model I know that is forecasting a modoki-esque El Niño. A Modoki El Niño is a bust? Very meaningless. Don't also forget that one of the strongest in history was a Modoki type, the 1965-1966 event.

DO NOT FORGET THAT NIÑO 3.4 IS THE BASIS OF DETERMINING THE INTENSITY OF THE EL NIÑO AND NOT 1+2. AND THAT CFSv2 AND THE ECMWF ARE EXPECTING A MODERATE TO STRONG EVENT.

lol see my edited post...

And you also tend to overexaggerate. I remember you kept on saying "THIS COULD BE +3.0ºC AND WILL BE A SUPER NIÑO!!!!!" and you still mentioned the 2 words total bust. And now, you're saying that "total bust even if it turns out to be weak" which proves your extreme predictions. And Niño 1+2 IS NOT the basis for declaring an EL niño to be declared, or to have intensified or weakened,

[euro6208]

Total Bust? It's not like the El Niño is going to be cancelled, in fact, the CFSv2 is expecting this to be a moderate-to-strong El Niño for the main Niño region 3.4 and please NOTE the difficulty of how to forecast a very complicated thing like this. Please also remember that this is only a prediction and a forecast, and it is not an absolute guarantee of what will actually happen. Please don't also overexaggerate. So far, CFSv2 is the only model I know that is forecasting a modoki-esque El Niño. A Modoki El Niño is a bust? Very meaningless. Don't also forget that one of the strongest in history was a Modoki type, the 1965-1966 event.

DO NOT FORGET THAT NIÑO 3.4 IS THE BASIS OF DETERMINING THE INTENSITY OF THE EL NIÑO AND NOT 1+2. AND THAT CFSv2 AND THE ECMWF ARE EXPECTING A MODERATE TO STRONG EVENT.

lol see my edited post...

And you also tend to overexaggerate. I remember you kept on saying "THIS COULD BE +3.0ºC AND WILL BE A SUPER NIÑO!!!!!" and you still mentioned the 2 words total bust. And now, you're saying that "total bust even if it turns out to be weak" which proves your extreme predictions. And Niño 1+2 IS NOT the basis for declaring an EL niño to be declared, or to have intensified or weakened,

I've been following weather for a long time. do you think i wouldn't know that?

Can you show me that page where I kept saying that *THIS COULD BE +3.0 AND WILL BE A SUPER NINO*. I see more of your forecast calling for a super nino...

[cycloneye]

Ok let's calm down. As Ntxw noted earlier,no big changes occured with the CPC update.

[NDG]

CFSv2 is still persistent of Nino 1+2 cooling down below El Nino threshold by SON period. What you guys have to say about it, I have not seen anybody else bring this up again ever since I brought this up a few weeks ago.

If that were to happen then this el nino would be a total bust even if weaker...

No, it would just simply be that if Nino 1+2 cool down while Nino 3.4 continue to warm this will not be an eastern based traditional El Nino, IMO.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I've been following weather for a long time. do you think i wouldn't know that?

Can you show me that page where I kept saying that *THIS COULD BE +3.0 AND WILL BE A SUPER NINO*. I see more of your forecast calling for a super nino...

Here you go, but you said 2.5 not 3, just a 0.5 difference.
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=116233

[dexterlabio]

I really want to see more discussions related to the topic, not these irrelevant conversations... you can just send a PM instead of making it public. I hope you understand.


Anyway, someone raised the 2009 comparison again. I do think 2009 is a good analog for this year as the development towards El Nino is temporarily hampered at least until July...but I still have to see signs that a Modoki will show up.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Now, now let's stop the fight and go back to the topic.

Back to the topic, I am very impressived with the wide swath of +1°C anomalies in the TAO graphic and in the NHC Reynolds data. There is a fast rate of warming over Niño regions 4, 3.4 & 3 in the daily data listed in the Tropical Tidbits data, but, as those regiohss warm, 1+2 has a quite rapid decrease over the past few days, now at 1.05 after being close to 1.7-1.8 many days ago.

[Ntxw]

The more important value is figuring out what strength the Nino will be not so much the type. The entire tropical Pacific is above normal.

[NDG]

Now, now let's stop the fight and go back to the topic.

Back to the topic, I am very impressived with the wide swath of +1°C anomalies in the TAO graphic and in the NHC Reynolds data. There is a fast rate of warming over Niño regions 4, 3.4 & 3 in the daily data listed in the Tropical Tidbits data, but, as those regiohss warm, 1+2 has a quite rapid decrease over the past few days, now at 1.05 after being close to 1.7-1.8 many days ago.

Which brings some credibility to the CFSv2 forecast of Nino 1+2 possibly falling to below El Nino threshold by SON period, IMO.

[dexterlabio]

Still looks east-based to me, at least for now. If Modoki enters the picture, it will probably be a transition from an east-based EN, a "hybrid" type like in 2009 and 1991.

[dexterlabio]

If anything, looks like the daily SOI has started tanking again.

Average for last 30 days 8.9
Average for last 90 days 1.2
Daily contribution to SOI calculation -29.0

[Ptarmigan]

I really want to see more discussions related to the topic, not these irrelevant conversations... you can just send a PM instead of making it public. I hope you understand.


Anyway, someone raised the 2009 comparison again. I do think 2009 is a good analog for this year as the development towards El Nino is temporarily hampered at least until July...but I still have to see signs that a Modoki will show up.

2009 started late in the summer and ended up to be one of the strongest Modoki El Nino. It also occurred in cool PDO. I am still inclined to think this will be an Eastern Equatorial El Nino, like 1972 or 1997.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

As the warm pool in the TAO equatorial subsurface graphic gets even warmer, to the opposite side, there is also a strengthening cool pool. I guess this is common during an El Niño.

[euro6208]

As the warm pool in the TAO equatorial subsurface graphic gets even warmer, to the opposite side, there is also a strengthening cool pool. I guess this is common during an El Niño.

Yeah this cool pool will likely push more warm water to the east and help surface them...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Very interesting and informative article about the upcoming El Niño event and a possible strong MJO which may be the final kick needed to start the El Niño.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2694

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Daily SOI rose to -20, up from -29 yesterday.
Daily contribution to SOI calculation:
-20.1

Source: http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/

While the daily went up a bit, it finally went really negative, after being positive for a while now. Because of the very negative daily SOI, the 30-day SOI is falling down like a rock amidst higher pressures and dry weather over Darwin, Australia.



And while the SOI tanks, Niño 1+2 also is tanking a lot too.

[cycloneye]

The CPC Global Hazards section has an interesting discussion about how is the MJO doing right now and what to expect for the next two weeks.

The MJO has remained generally incoherent since about the middle of May and this week both the CPC MJO index based on velocity potential and the RMM index show virtually no projection onto the MJO. Moreover, OLR anomalies offer little coherent signals outside of atmospheric Kelvin wave (KW) activity and potentially a developing equatorial Rossby wave in the eastern Pacific. The enhanced phase of a KW crossing the eastern Pacific appears to be the most clearly detectable at the current time and may have contributed to the recent development of Tropical Storm Cristina off the coast of Mexico. Tropical cyclone 2A also developed in the Arabian Sea.

Suppressed convection was evident across areas of northern South America and the Philippines while enhanced convection was apparent over the west-central Pacific, Arabian Sea, Gulf of Guinea region of Africa and central Mexico. In fact, last week Tropical Storm Boris produced very heavy rainfall, flooding and mudslides across portions of coastal central Mexico.

There is large spread in the dynamical model RMM forecasts of the MJO with several, including the GFS and ECMWF family of solutions, indicating a transient increase in amplitude during Week-1 followed by a decrease in amplitude. Some models, primarily the UK Met Office solution shows somewhat more progressive behavior. Given the inability for robust MJO activity to organize across the eastern hemisphere and shift coherently eastward in recent weeks, the official outlook calls for a continuation of weak or incoherent MJO activity over the next two weeks

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... /ghazards/

[NDG]

That's what I pointed out a couple of days ago of how the Euro has been trending towards a weakening MJO as it moves eastward from the Western Maritime Continent into the western Pacific.

[Kingarabian]

:uarrow: That's what I pointed out a couple of days ago of how the Euro has been trending towards a weakening MJO as it moves eastward from the Western Maritime Continent into the western Pacific.

Well then.

This El Nino busts, and we continue waiting for one for the next 2 years. We're over due for an El Nino and overdue for a super El Nino as well.

Meanwhile the atmosphere remains stagnant and we continue having subpar atlantic hurricane seasons, droughts in California and Texas.

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